|
David Price is right for the starting rotation... eventually. When the rosters expand this September, which top prospects will find their way to solid fantasy value? Not many, it seems.
On September first, the rosters expand to 40 players. Sprinkled in among the organizational pitchers and backup catchers are real top prospects getting their first taste of the big leagues. The norm, of course, is that the big prospect is already up long before September first (like Ryan Braun and Justin Upton), but every once in a while, you get a Francisco Rodriguez electrifying baseball, thanks to the expansion of the rosters. Fantasy managers have to stay a step ahead of the masses. In an effort to help those managers stay a step ahead, here’s a look at the top prospects still toiling away in the minor leagues, with a discussion of their chances of getting a call-up and a real look. Generally, top prospects that have played at AA for a significant amount of time and are on teams that are doing poorly provide the best situation for a top prospect to thrive. Those teams can stick a young guy somewhere and let him take his rips without much consequence in the standings. Colby Rasmus, for example, is a top prospect that has played all year at AAA and would seem to be a good candidate for a cup of coffee in September. On the other hand, the Cardinals are in the middle of a pennant race and are unlikely to call on a rookie in an everyday role. While he may get the call, too many things have to break the right way for him to have fantasy value any time this year. Also, although Nelson Cruz is dominating AAA and finally up in Texas, he’s 27 and has lost top prospect status for a while. Using Baseball America’s top 100 prospects from before the season began, let’s find some young players likely to make an impact on fantasy rosters. Cameron Maybin Florida has scored about 30 less runs than the Phillies and Mets so far this year, and are only averaging 3.4 runs a game during their last ten games – and have gone 4-6 to fall five games out of first. Current center fielder Cody Ross has a career .957 OPS versus lefties… and a career .744 OPS versus righties. Maybin, on the other hand, is  young at 21, and has not been able to cut down his problem with the high strikeout rate. In fact, he’s striking out more often, per at bat, then he ever has. He’ll probably come up to the bigs, but if he strikes out as often in the majors as he has this year in the minors (once every 3.2 at-bats), he won’t get too much regular burn. This is a man to watch – if he comes up and goes four for four in his first game, there’s a chance he catches fire and takes over center field for good. David Price Though Price was shut down after the draft last year due to arm trouble, and got started late this year from the same trouble, he hasn’t had an injury issue this year as he’s blown through the minor leagues. He had 133 innings at Vanderbilt last year, and is only at 104 this year, so he can probably pitch another 50 innings without being shutdown. He’s slowed down a little finally in his first three AAA starts (seven earned runs in his first 13 innings), but the buzz is still on about his upcoming major league debut. The problem for Price is that Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are healthy and pitching effectively. The guess here is that Price joins the bullpen as a long man, and takes over when Jackson or Sonnanstine hit one of their stinkers. Lots of fantasy upside in 2009, not so much in September 2008. Travis Snider From an organization stand point, the Toronto Blue Jays seem to be preparing a regular spot in the lineup for Snider. Kevin Mench has been designated for assignment, Adam Lind has been set up in left  field, and the youngsters are getting burn as the Blue Jays play for 2009. All that stands between Snider and regular burn is the 96-year-old Matt Stairs. Snider is hot, too: since he was promoted to AAA, he’s hitting .360 and showing he belongs. There’s a real shot here for a premier prospect to take over a regular spot in a lineup and show off his refined hitting approach – and real power. He lead his league in slugging in 2007, and a career .512 minor league slugging percentage is nice. Snider is a blue-chipper about to be up, so let him help you too. Max Scherzer This may not count, because Scherzer was up before, but the buzz is back around this young man that can bring the heat. After playing with their toy, and putting him in the bullpen, and then back in the rotation, the Diamondbacks have settled on having their young stud start. They’re stretching him out in AAA and he’s pitching well. He’s got about 30 innings left before they would talk of shutting him down, so he could give you some key spot starts down the stretch, especially if Yusmeiro Petit falters. However, he’s not worth a waiver claim because of the uncertainty of his role. Dexter Fowler There’s not too much to glean from Fowler’s recent experience at the Olympics. He hit .250 with a triple, a 2/4 BB/K ratio, and no errors in center field, and generally looked ready for the big time. Then again, his career .300/.393/.451 and 61/82 BB/K ratio this year in AA also point to the fact that the 22-year-old is ready to man center field in Denver. There’s no doubt Fowler will be up, and it seems obvious that the Rockies are not enamored with their current center fielder (Willy Taveras) and his .316 OBP. Amazingly, Taveras’ 61 steals this year have only lead to 58 runs – a clue to his underlying ineffectiveness as a lead-off batter. The chances are reasonably warm that Fowler takes over center field this September, for good. Matt Wieters Wieters will be up this fall, and should hit right away. His is a special talent, as he’s torn through the minor leagues in his first year, going .350/.451/.599 in 411 at-bats between single and double A. The only thing that would keep the Orioles from bringing him up is some sort of reluctance to start his arbitration clock. On the other hand, these Orioles don’t usually think like a Tampa Bay: they sign big free agents, like their current catcher Ramon Hernandez (who is a free agent this winter), and they think they are just around the corner from being competitive every year. Here’s betting that the organization would rather audition Wieters for the starting catcher role this September than go into next spring without a good idea who their starting catcher will be. Andrew McCutchen / Steve Pearce Both of these top prospect outfielders have over 480 at bats at AAA and seem ready to test the major leagues. While McCutchen has shown less power as he’s progressed, he’s still got a great batting eye and good speed, and the organization has to throw him into the fire at some point. At 21, though, he’s more likely to get less burn. Pearce is 25, and they already said that they’ll bring him back up and get him regular at bats when the rosters expand. Both are decent bets in NL-only leagues, where anyone who plays regularly is rostered, but are also probably not worth your attention in mixed leagues. Others to watch: Wade Davis in Tampa Bay has 600+ minor league innings and is doing well at AAA currently, so he could see some time in the bullpen. Jeff Niemann, the 6’9” righty in Tampa’s organization, is in the exact same position. Matt LaPorta probably deserves his own paragraph, but  Cleveland may want to give the pressing LaPorta (.212/.250/.288 in his first 14 games in the Cleveland system and a .158 average in the Olympics, plus a possible concussion) some time off. Also, the team needs to evaluate if Franklin Gutierrez and Ben Francisco will ever contribute up to their potential. Jordan Schafer has recovered since his suspension for HGH, and is playing well at AA, but he’s still 21. Will Atlanta play him over Mark Kotsay in order to see what they’ve got? Hard to say, but they aren’t shy about giving youngsters shots. If you see his name in a callup, he could bring your NL-only team some power and speed if he hits the ground running. JR Towles and his .301/.384/.476 minor league are done with the minors. He’ll be the starting catcher down the stretch as soon as the Astros realize they are out of the running, but will he hit this time? He could get hot and be relevant in mixed leagues, like he was during his September callup in 2007. Carlos Carrasco has detractors and some mediocre minor league numbers (like a 1.32 career minor league WHIP), but he’s pitching well in AAA and the Phillies could use some pitching in the majors. Root for Kyle Kendrick to falter if you are a Carrasco owner, otherwise, he’ll pitch some long relief. Nolan Reimold isn’t as well known as many, but this Oriole minor league right fielder is 24 and hitting .282/.363/.477 in AA. He could spell Luke Scott some, but Nick Markakis isn’t going anywhere right now.
|
