I have fantasy football draft brain (not to be confused with draft drain…which is another calamity of mine, as evidenced by my lack of real work over the past week). All I seem to be able to do is think about drafting; I have woken up thinking about players maybe 4 times in the past 10 days. That doesn’t seem healthy. I even had a dream that Reggie Wayne got injured and my fantasy season was in shambles.
Clearly I need some new hobbies. But I thought I’d spend a little time looking at some of the trends I’ve seen in my 4 drafts thus far…
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1. Two of these drafts have been in leagues that give 6 points per passing touchdown. The QBs have been going like CRAZY. Big Ben Roethlisberger was gone by the end of the 2nd round in one league and by the start of the 3rd round in the other – what on earth is that?? So in those leagues I grabbed Jay Cutler in the 5th round and David Garrard in the 10th round; and then I took Donovan McNabb in the 5th and Aaron Rodgers in the 10th in the second league. So apparently that’s my pattern or suggestion. If you’re in a 6 points per passing TD league and QBs start going like crazy, either jump on that bandwagon in the 2nd round or hold off and grab your top QB by the 5th round and follow him up with a servicable QB2 later in the draft.
2. The Carolina Panthers running back fantasy love is so fickle. I say pick a back and stick with him. Personally ,I’m on the Jonathan Stewart train but the drafting of these guys is all over the board. I saw Stewart go as early as the end of the 4th round and as late as the start of the 8th (oh yeah, that late value pick was mine, baby!) and DeAngelo Williams go as early as the 6th round and as late as the end of the 10th round in drafts earlier this week. I’ve also seen them both go in the 6th round, just picks away from one another, but I do believe Stewart will end up being the back that carries most of the load.
3. Some guys who are going pretty late but could be very interesting flier picks:
-- Josh Morgan, WR, SF
-- Eddie Royal, WR, Den
-- Tim Hightower, RB, Ari
-- Ben Obomanu, WR, Sea
-- Laurent Robinson, WR, Atl (wait that might just be me taking him)
-- Dominic Rhodes, RB, Ind
-- Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
4. I drafted Adrian Peterson with the 2nd overall pick. As the start of the 9th round rolled around, the dude right in front of me picked Chester Taylor with the 9.01 pick as I was sitting with my mouse hovering over Chester Taylor’s naming, preparing to draft him at the 9.02 slot. Not cool. Not cool at all. This leaguemate, theendzoneview.com, claims you should never wait past the 8th round to take Taylor. I now know that lesson well. Unclear if endzone was just taking him to teach me a lesson or not…but I plan on being the last one laughing with my RBs dominating whether AP goes down or not. But if you’re an AP owner looking for some insurance with Taylor, don’t be overly confident like me; grab him before the 9th round.
5. I generally feel like the middle rounds of my drafts have all been chock full of RB potential. Sure, a lot of them are gambles but aren’t most of the RBs outside of the top 10-15? I’ve really liked my RB options in rounds 5-8 to the extent that I wish I had drafted more WRs early on. While I’ve gone with a WR in every 2nd round and many 3rd rounds, I think more and more that the 4th round could even be a place to grab a 3rd WR for those leagues that start 3 WRs (seems increasingly common; has anyone else noticed that?). That means if you’re an early to mid round draft pick, you’re going RB-WR-WR-WR – a little bold and I like it. I’ll try it out with one of my drafts this weekend (one on Saturday, one on Sunday) and I’ll let you all know how that strategy goes.
Good luck drafting and I'll see you next week!
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Past "A Librarians Touch" Articles (click to view)
Bye-ing into a Team D/ST
Forecasting Streaky Players
Fantasy Football Hindsight from Week 1
Hidden Potential Among Rookies
Fantasy Football Draft Day Trends
Creating Fantasy Football Tiers
Pick your Kicker with some Statistical Perspective
Optimizing Your Tight End
Beyond the Obvious with IDP's
Committing to a Running Back Committee
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Sara Holladay, owner of Fantasy Football Librarian, will be writing a weekly feature called "A Librarians Touch" on the Bruno Boys website on every Wednesday throughout the football season. Remember to check back next week to read what Holladay has on her fantasy football mind.
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