What’s changed for the Bears since they last met the Lions in week four? Nothing really, besides their record of course. The Bears offense? Still no running game and its been difficult at best to string along drives for most of the game. Defense? Not much of a change here, but at least they didn’t lose the game against Philly. It’s Brian Griese and the Bears second run at Detroit and at home. Here’s how I think it will play out:

Offense: Griese made his first start of the year against the Lions and as we all know, it didnt go as planned. Three interceptions, one for a touchdown, and a veteran quarterback just trying to find his stride with the first string offense. A non-existent running game and a slew of dropped passes led to serious trouble keeping the Lions offense off the field. Four things have changed since that game. First, Brian Griese appears to be much more comfortable in the Bears offense and he’s been able to show his best asset (experience) against Minnesota and Philadelphia in the late minutes of the game. The 97 yard drive against Philadelphia was something I’ve never seen from a Bears offense and his precision throwing the ball was crucial to that drive’s success. He’s seen Detroit once and should be adjusted much better for what a pourous Detroit defense will bring. Second, the emergence of Devin Hester has given the Bears a slew of options in the passing game and allowed their tight ends (Olsen/Clark) to exploit the middle of the field. Hester can run the ball on a reverse, juke defenders on the screen, speed pass linebackers on quick in/slant routes, and even drag a safety downfield on a long pass route. Third, the offensive line has done much better in terms of protection on pass plays. Run blocking has a LOT to be left desired, however, they’re getting it done for the most part when Griese needs protection. Finally, Adrian Peterson seems to be a reliable running back in terms of blocking schemes on passes and also on check downs. He’s able to get decent gains when running the ball and has left Cedric Benson on the bench in crucial situations. Hopefully these four factors and a second look will help the Bears offense succeed against the 30th ranked defense. The Bears mantra is focused on establishing the run (which it hasn’t) and with a less than average secondary in the Lions defense, expect to see Griese’s pass attempts up, but not a result of trying to comeback late in the fourth quarter.

Key Matchups: Expect to see Hester used in the offense a lot. No matter where he goes on pass routes, he’ll draw a safety which should allow for quite few completions to Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen. Also expect more looks to Muhammad who is starting to get more attempts toward his side. He also could be difference maker on short routes.

Defense: Things seemed to just go downhill after the Bears gave up 34 points in the fourth quarter to Detroit and it got worse against Minnesota. I figured it could get ugly against Philadelphia, but the Bears only allowed one touchdown (should have allowed one more) and didn’t lose the game. The Bears defense will get a slight break against the Detroit running game which is only averaging 85 yards a game, but did have a breakout last week with 147 yards against Tampa Bay. The problem is that the Bears will now shift their focus to a great receiving corps in Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, and Calvin Johnson. The Bears usually try to double team Williams in each matchup and in week four only allowed 53 yards to him. The problem was that they allowed Furrey to get open over the middle and along the sidelines and gave up touchdowns to Troy Walters and Shaun McDonald who are the lesser of their receiving corps. The biggest factor for the defense will be in terms of personnel. In the last game, the Lions were without Calvin Johnson, Kevin Jones, and Damien Woody. Tackle Jeff Backus even had issues with sore ribs. It looks like Nathan Vasher will be out again this week and eye his return after the bye week, but the Bears couldn’t use him more this week.

Key Matchups: Bears Secondary vs. Lions Receivers. On paper the Lions easily win this matchup and the Bears cover 2 has looked deplorable since the Dallas game in terms of coverage from the linebackers. Its one thing to cover Williams, its something new to cover Johnson. Good luck to McBride and Ricky Manning.

Overall: The Bears have an advantage at home seeing as the Lions are 7-44 on the road in their last 51 games. What the Bears can’t do in this game is try to keep pace with the Lions in the field goal department due to the potential explosiveness their offense has and the fact that Lions opponents are 5-12 in field goals made this season. Brian Urlacher is mad at the media, Roy Williams loves trash talking when it comes to the Bears and even Tommie Harris says the Lions won’t leave Chicago with a win, which prompted Dominic Raiola to place the article in every Lions locker this week. What else would you expect? In either case, the Bears need a win against Detroit to be .500 at the bye week and keep pace in the NFC North. On paper, that shouldn’t be a problem.

My Pick: Bears 27 Lions 24

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