For decades, the Tour Championship was the pre-eminent goodbye
tournament (for the traditional season that is) for the very best players on
Tour. However, for the last two years now, this is the final stop for the
FedEx Cup Playoffs and we all get to see who takes home the richest prize in
golf; the $10 million bonus check. Last year, the story was Tiger and
more Tiger, as he ran away with it and there wasn't much doubt as to the
winner. Vijay Singh has a 10,000 point lead on Camilo Villegas currently;
but with 110,000 FedEx Cup Points available (typically 27,500 were available in
normal events); anyone in the top-10 of the field has a legitimate chance to
win, and in fact the entire field has at least an outside chance to win.
As far as East Lake
itself, it's a par-70 course, just slightly over 7,100 yards in length; which
shouldn't be a problem with anyone in the field. The key on this course
is going to be Greens In Regulation. The one thing you don't want to do
is short-side yourself on these greens; because they're all almost impossible
to play if you do that. Tiger won this tournament last year with a score
of -23. Of course, he won that tournament by 8 shots; but -15 is still a
pretty low score for a playoff course, and you're probably going to be looking
at something close to that this year. You would think at first that that
would score the better of the top-30 here; but that might not necessarily be
the case, because even those at the lower end of this field can score low on an
easier course. We shall see, and for what could be one of the most
important Fantasy weeks of the season (because of the small field) here are
your Starts and Sits.
Start
Hunter Mahan - A Group - And this win probably won't be enough to win
the FedEx Cup, but the $3.5 million winner's share won't hurt, and it will make
a great capper to a fantastic 2008. Mainly, this is a
"momentum" pick on my part. Mahan was one to the three "kids"
that really pushed the U.S. Ryder Cup team to victory last week. He
didn't drop a match throughout the whole tournament, and while some (like
Mickelson and Stricker) struggled, Mahan, along with Holmes and Weekley, were
there to carry the day. Now, you might think that Valhalla, a U.S. Open
course and East Lake wouldn't have much in common; but last week's Valhalla was
not your typical "major caliber" Valhalla, as in, they watered the
greens and had generous pin and tee placements. If anything, East
Lake is a little flatter than Valhalla, so
that should be an advantage for everyone; especially someone who is just coming
off that course. His putter is his weak spot, which, of course, makes any
Mahan pick tenuous, but be putted beautifully a week ago, belying his 149th in Putting
Average and 200th in Putts Per Round. He's 85th in Driving Distance and
48th in Driving Accuracy, which is good for 21st in Total Driving. Most
of all however, and most importantly I think this week, is that he's 2nd on
Tour in Greens In Regulation. As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, I
truly think that THAT is the keeper stat for the week. He's also building
off a T-5th finish a year ago at the same course. Vijay and Sergio will
get all the ink, and Vijay will probably win the whole ball of wax, but for
this week, don't be surprised if Mahan wins. I won't be.
Camilo Villegas - B Group - This was a total coin flip with Anthony
Kim, who played so well at the Ryder Cup, but I don't think that's enough to
discount just what Villegas has done over the FedEx Cup Playoffs, from out of
the top-30 to 2nd behind Vijay Singh in the standings, and a win at the last
tournament, the BMW Championship. Villegas has had an excellent season
all year, but especially in the second half, and even more especially over the
last month. There aren't a heck of a lot of weaknesses in his game, he's
51st in Driving Distance, and although he's 167th in Driving Accuracy, that
certainly hasn't been the case over the last two months. He's 87th in
Greens In Regulation, which is pretty average; but again, he's been a pin
seeker over the course of the playoffs. His putting, 18th in Putting
Average and 60th in Putts Per Round, puts him in the top half of this field,
and should help more than hurt over the duration of this tournament. He
was worse than 300th in the OWGR just 3 years ago, and he's now 17th. He's
also the second pick on this list under-30, signaling that the "next
generation" of golfers is upon us.
Dudley Hart - C Group - And thus will end the under-30 run, but
there's no denying the run Hart has had this year, especially in the Playoffs,
and he is as hot as anyone else in the field. He's terrible off the tee,
there's no denying that, he's 162nd in Driving Distance and 130th in Driving
Accuracy, which is, in a word, bad. That said (as has been the case with
everyone so far) he has been better of late. Not great, by any means, but
at least better. Considering the rest of his 2008 resume,
"better" might be enough to win him the tournament. He's 30th
in Greens In Regulation, which puts him in the top half of the field here
(actually 6th). He's 37th in Putting Average and 48th in Putts Per Round
as well. If he brings that kind of flat stick this week; he's got a very
good chance at a win here.
Sit
Sergio Garcia - A Group - He was just brutal at the Ryder Cup, not
able to win a single match. He also seemed to have reverted to "bad
Sergio" meaning that not only is he putting badly; but he's losing focus
on his shots and his driver has waved "bye bye" to him. We're
all very familiar with his stats, of course. He's 45th in Driving
Distance and 147th in Driving Accuracy, which is about what we're looking at
from everyone this week give or take a bit. He's 25th in GIR with should
keep him in contention, that is, if he's living up to that number now; because
he wasn't this past week. And of course, he's 118th in Putting Average,
and 167th in Putts Per Round, and even with Sergio playing "well",
he's putted like that at all times all season long. Actually he's putted
like that his entire career, and shows no signs of changing any time
soon. Garcia won't win this week, and unless Villegas and Singh
absolutely collapse, he won't win the FedEx Cup either.
Stewart Cink - B Group - Yeah, he's kind of a cop-out pick at this
point; but he does play very well in Georgia
(he's from Huntsville, AL,
went to GA Tech, and had success at the Bell-South and Masters previously), so
I know some of you out there will be tempted to pick him. Don't. He
hasn't done diddly-poo since winning the Travelers on June 22nd. His
stats are still great, although, believe it or not, down from where they were
at the season's midpoint. He's 29th in Driving Distance, but 182nd in
Driving Accuracy. He's 20th in Greens In Regulation, but in June he was
5th. He's 38th in Putting Average and 83rd in Putts Per Round, but both
those numbers are down since June as well. Cink will probably just hack
around this week, collect his check and take the rest of the year off;
hopefully figuring out what went wrong in June when the wheels came off.
Trevor Immelman - C Group - Yes, he's in the FedEx Cup commercial
(announcing into the hairbrush, that's him) and yes he won the Masters this
year, but outside of that, Immelman has been downright dreadful. He has
one other top-10 (2nd Stanford St. Jude) all season long, and his T-13ths at
the BMW Championship kept him in the top-30, but that's about all he did, and
he really kind of backed into that finish. He's 64th in Driving Distance
and 97th in Driving Accuracy, which isn't horrible, but he's 122nd in Greens In
Regulation, which is, in fact, horrible, and he's also 168th in Putting Average
and 169th in Putts Per Round. That's consistent, but consistently
bad. I'd be honestly surprised if Immelman even got a top-25 this week;
and that's tough to do in a field of 30.