The Chase is now entering its third week, and it looks like it will be a three-way fight between Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson. However, for fantasy owners, there are plenty of points to be made by carefully examining the lower-tier drivers. Along those lines, let’s take a look at the roster from bottom to top.
In two of my fantasy racing leagues this year, I have made tons of points by riding bottom-tier picks to huge points. I have been using guys like Brian Vickers, David Ragan, and most recently David Reutimann to big points gains.
Understanding who is poised for a breakout race could be the key to winning your fantasy league this year. Here is an interesting fact for you – did you know that there has not been a first-time winner in the Cup Series yet this year? Reutimann and Ragan are the top options for drivers to break through and score their first win, even though both of these drivers had terrible performances in these races a year ago. My bet here is that at least one of these two wins one of these final eight races.
For Reutimann, the best bets are Talladega and Martinsville, since both he and his teammate, Michael Waltrip, perform well there. In fact, the NWR team as a whole has been much improved since debuting a new generation of chassis in the later part of the summer. Waltrip himself could be one of the dark horse picks at these same two tracks who could score you a lot of points.
For Ragan, the best bets for wins are this week at Kansas – remember, Kansas has a tradition of being won by non-Chase drivers. Ragan also looks good for the last week of the season at Homestead, where the Roush cars have dominated over the last four years.
If you are looking to improve your mid-tier picks, then I have one name for you – Jamie McMurray. The Roush guys have learned something and all five of their cars are running very well. If not for a little bad luck, last week’s Dover race could very well have been a four-car Roush battle for the win. If you are lagging behind in the final weeks of fantasy racing, take McMurray at places like Texas, Lowe’s, and Homestead.
By far, the safest mid-tier pick here is Bobby Labonte. Even though he drives for a team that is rebuilding, Labonte is a safe bet each and every week to finish in the top twenty. Another driver to watch in this tier is Mark Martin. Fantasy owners have to be careful here, since he will not compete in all the races, but when he does, Martin is almost a lock for a top ten finish.
As for the top-tier, things are pretty obvious. Biffle, Edwards, and Johnson should be on your roster each and every week. Over the past three years, they have been the most successful average-wise in these Chase races. I personally have avoided Matt Kenseth almost all season, but right now with the advantage that the Roush guys have found, Kenseth is a pretty good pick at the 1.5 mile tracks where Roush traditionally has run well.
I will be avoiding Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Tony Stewart for the rest of the season. I would also put Dale Jr. in this category as well. For whatever reason, these teams have lost something, and the Gibbs cars are back to questionable parts in their rides – something that severely hurt their performance all of last season (especially in the new COT platform).
That ultimately leaves us with Kyle Busch. No doubt that he will win at least one more race this year, but where that will come, no one knows. He won at Chicago Land, the track most similar to Kansas, but his team has suffered a gigantic meltdown entering the Chase. I blame this on Kyle’s poor attitude, and this is not the first time that he has started a Chase this way. In 2006, his Chase started exactly this way and he ended up finishing dead last among the Chase drivers.
It seems that I have forgotten to mention the three RCR drivers. That is because, while they are consistent and run in the top 15 every race, they are having very forgettable seasons. I don’t mean that in a bad way, they are just a half-step behind the others and a step in front of the guys doing poorly. The problem is that with Roush dominance and Kyle’s meltdown, they get lost in the shuffle. They are undoubtedly safe picks, and Clint Bowyer very well could finally win his first race at his home track of Kansas. |
