by Tom Peters
One of the toughest series to call in a while. The Philles come in as an inconsistent team. While they beat the Brewers convincingly, they only scored their runs in three or four innings. The pitching staff has looked really good. There are some key questions regarding the Phillies.
- Can the lineup produce to its potential? If Howard, Burrell, Utley and Werth can get to the Dodger pitching staff, the Phillies could make their first World Series since 1993 (Joe Carter and Mitch Williams throw out the pitches for Game 6).
- How many games will Cole Hamels start? I think for the the Phillies to have a chance he needs tobe in Games 1,4 and 7, unless the Phillies lead the series after Game 3, then he can start Game 5 and do some relief in Game 7 if necessary.
- How will Brad Lidge play under pressure? He hasn’t blown a save all year. This is scary. Prefect usually ends at inopportune times. Don’t forget that Lidge doesn’t deal well with adversity (see 2006 playoffs).
The Dodgers come in equally hot. They have experience in Derek Lowe, Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez and joe Torre. The pitching was dominant and the rest of the lineup contributed. they went 18-6 in September and 3-0 in October. But they too have some key questions:
- Can the Dodgers get out the lefties? The main reason they looked so dominant against the Cubs is because the Cubs lacked a good left-handed batter. The Phillies lineup has some very good left handed bats in Howard and Utley. It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers deal with this.
- Can the 5 & 6 hitters provide Manny some protection? Loney’s grand slam in Game 1 of the NLDS opened the gates for Manny to have a good series. Without that homerun, he might not have gotten many pitches to hit. Those batters have to make the Phillies pay for pitching around Manny.
- Who is the Closer? Saito pitched in Game 2, but he didn’t to do well. At least the Dodgers were up 10-1 at the time. If it’s a 1 or 2 run game in the 9th inningm how well the injury plagued Saito do?
All in all. I think this has the making of a classic series. I think the Phillies bats will get to Dodger pitching, but not enough to take them to the promised land. Los Angeles is too hot, they have the one of the best postseason managers in history and the 5 & 6 hitters will eventually open the gates for Manny to have a good series. I think Lidge will blow a pressured packed save (probably in Games 3, 4 or 5 in LA) and his history of failing to quickly recover will rear its ugly head. the best chance for the Phillies to win is to have Hamels start three games in this series, but it think by that time it’ll be an academic point.
MY PICK: Dodgers in 6.
