The third week of the NFL season had no shortage of
interesting issues arising. QBs and RBs continue to dominate the
headlines, as some are up, some are down, and some are still unsure of their
status. Doesn't it seem especially true in fantasy football that the more
you learn, the more questions you have? If that is indeed true, prepare
to have more questions than you can handle, as we run down what we learned in
Week 5:
AFC
1. The Dolphins actually have meritorious fantasy
players. We knew Ronnie Brown was a
good fantasy option, but most of us did not expect him to have such a fantasy
impact so quickly, not after coming off major knee surgery. Brown has not
only re-inserted himself among the ranks of the fantasy elite, but he is tied
for the league lead in rushing TDs, and has proven that he is a possible option
QB when Miami runs a trick play. Meanwhile, did anyone think Chad
Pennington and Greg Camarillo would be decent fantasy options? Both have
played very well, especially of late. Also consider Anthony Fasano (more
on him below). A couple of preseason sleepers, Ricky Williams and Ted
Ginn, Jr., have not panned out, but the Dolphins look determined to score
points. That is good news for owners looking for fantasy options on the
waiver wire or through trades.
2. Hines Ward is rising up the charts. Ward was always a hard-to-assess fantasy
player. In terms of his NFL ability, everybody loves him because he does
everything well. In terms of fantasy value, it's hit or miss. Ward
always has value because he scores TDs and is a terrific red-zone WR, but the
fact of the matter is that his highest receiving-yardage total in the last four
years was 1,004 in 2004, and he has missed games in the past few years partly
because he is so physical on the field. This year, however, Ben
Roethlisberger looks deadly accurate throwing the ball, which could lead to big
things for Ward. He had seven catches against Jacksonville, and you can
bet that trend will continue as long as Big Ben continues to be accurate.
Combine a possible increase in yardage and receptions with his red-zone
proficiency, and you have the makings of a very good, every-week fantasy
starter.
3. Carson Palmer had a great week - good enough to buy
for the long-term? Palmer's stock had gone way
down as a result of some terrible outings and an elbow injury that kept him out
of last week's game and threatened to keep him out of this week's game.
He was a popular "Sit" pick for the previous game against Dallas, so
what does he do? Merely throw for 217 yards, two TDs, and one INT.
Those numbers may not wow you, but he was efficient and finally garnered
significantly positive fantasy points. Consider, however, that he did so
against a very suspect Dallas pass defense. Ocho Cinco still has not
broken out, the Bengals are still a bad team, and the offensive line will
probably cause Palmer some problems down the road. So even though his
last outing was encouraging, don't go looking to overpay for him. He has
a lot of issues besides his elbow.
4. Anthony Fasano is emerging as a threat. A lot of the buzz is revolving around Tony Scheffler
at TE, but Fasano is also beginning to make a name for himself.
Considered a sleeper during the preseason, his performance left some doubt as
to whether he would play a significant role. We can now consider him
significant. Even though he missed the game on Week 2, and Miami had a
bye on Week 4, Fasano ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of yards and
TDs among TEs. In his three games, he is averaging 14 yards per reception
and 65.7 yards per game. With Pennington becoming more comfortable in the
offense, Fasano's stock will keep rising unless you pick him up real soon.
5. Good AFC kickers are scarce. Matt Prater is arguably the best fantasy kicker in
football at the moment, and Josh Scobee continues to kick well. Rian
Lindell is naling nearly every kick from Buffalo, but other than those three,
it is all NFC. Why is this? Hard to say why, but you can see Prater,
Lindell and Scobee keeping up the pace because of the makeup of their
teams. On the other hand, unless San Diego's offense gets hot, which
would be good for Nate Kaeding, it is hard to imagine any other kicker vaulting
into the kicking elite.
1. Kyle Orton has become a very interesting option at
QB. Everyone knows about Matt
Forte, and how he may be one of the biggest fantasy finds at RB. What
gets lost in the shuffle is how Forte's success affects Orton. By all
appearances, the answer is: a lot. Would it surprise you to learn that
Orton is eighth in the NFL in passing yards? How about that he is tied
for eighth in TDs? Sure, his four INTs are a little bit of a concern for
someone who is supposed to be extremely efficient, but given the fact that Orton
is throwing over 30 passes a game, the INTs should not be a worry. Right
now, he is proving to be a very solid fantasy starter.
2. Tim Hightower may become more than a handcuff to
Edgerrin James. Let's compare. Edge has
334 yards on 92 carries. Hightower has 110 yards on 36 carries. So
why would I say Hightower might see more carries? Consider that Hightower
has five TDs to Edge's three. Consider also that Hightower has proven
himself to be a big asset in the passing game, collecting 92 yards on 10 catches,
as opposed to Edge's 10 receptions and 73 yards while being the primary
RB. Right now, Hightower is a much bigger red-zone threat than Edge, and
that could mean big things in the long run, particularly if the Cardinals make
a solid run for the playoffs. Watch Hightower's progress carefully and
see if he chips away at Edge's playing time in any significant manner.
3. Live or die with Kurt Warner. Some weeks, you will have games like last week, when
Warner turned the ball over six times. Some weeks, you will have games
like this past week, when Warner was masterful in throwing for 250 yards and
two TDs (plus no turnovers). What does all this mean? Warner will
throw for more than 4,000 yards this year, with upwards of 25 TDs or more, but he
will give you some bumpy rides along the way. In the end, though, you
cannot throw for 4,000 yards without having more good weeks than bad. You
will just have to absorb the hits along the way and hope the supporting cast
can pick up Warner when he starts giving the ball away in a given week.
4. Bernard Berrian is a solid buy. Gus Frerotte looked awfully comfortable in Minnesota's
offense last week. That can only be good news to Bernard Berrian, who is
quietly making himself known to opposing defenses. Though he has only 17
receptions, he has 305 yards receiving and scored his first TD as a Viking last
week. Perhaps more importantly, as Frerotte got more comfortable, he
threw more often to Berrian, helping Berrian garner five catches last week and
six catches this week. The Vikings are now set with Frerotte at QB, which
means his comfort level with Berrian should only improve.
5. Can Reggie Bush single-handedly lift the New
Orleans DEF/ST? In one of the great
special-teams performances in NFL history, Bush returned two punts for TDs,
enough to make Minnesota head coach Brad Childress fume to the media about his
punter, who Childress apparently had ordered to kick the ball out of
bounds. But does Bush's performance merit your picking up New Orleans' DEF/ST?
Don't make that gamble. The Saints are giving up over 22 points per game
and average only two sacks per game. They do not have a particularly
strong defense, so you would almost be gambling on Bush scoring a TD that
week. That would be a highly dubious proposition, and a risk not worth
taking.