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NFL Week 5: What Have We Learned?

The third week of the NFL season had no shortage of interesting issues arising.  QBs and RBs continue to dominate the headlines, as some are up, some are down, and some are still unsure of their status.  Doesn't it seem especially true in fantasy football that the more you learn, the more questions you have?  If that is indeed true, prepare to have more questions than you can handle, as we run down what we learned in Week 5:

AFC

1.  The Dolphins actually have meritorious fantasy players.  We knew Ronnie Brown was a good fantasy option, but most of us did not expect him to have such a fantasy impact so quickly, not after coming off major knee surgery.  Brown has not only re-inserted himself among the ranks of the fantasy elite, but he is tied for the league lead in rushing TDs, and has proven that he is a possible option QB when Miami runs a trick play.  Meanwhile, did anyone think Chad Pennington and Greg Camarillo would be decent fantasy options?  Both have played very well, especially of late.  Also consider Anthony Fasano (more on him below).  A couple of preseason sleepers, Ricky Williams and Ted Ginn, Jr., have not panned out, but the Dolphins look determined to score points.  That is good news for owners looking for fantasy options on the waiver wire or through trades.

2.  Hines Ward is rising up the charts.  Ward was always a hard-to-assess fantasy player.  In terms of his NFL ability, everybody loves him because he does everything well.  In terms of fantasy value, it's hit or miss.  Ward always has value because he scores TDs and is a terrific red-zone WR, but the fact of the matter is that his highest receiving-yardage total in the last four years was 1,004 in 2004, and he has missed games in the past few years partly because he is so physical on the field.  This year, however, Ben Roethlisberger looks deadly accurate throwing the ball, which could lead to big things for Ward.  He had seven catches against Jacksonville, and you can bet that trend will continue as long as Big Ben continues to be accurate.  Combine a possible increase in yardage and receptions with his red-zone proficiency, and you have the makings of a very good, every-week fantasy starter.

3.  Carson Palmer had a great week - good enough to buy for the long-term?  Palmer's stock had gone way down as a result of some terrible outings and an elbow injury that kept him out of last week's game and threatened to keep him out of this week's game.  He was a popular "Sit" pick for the previous game against Dallas, so what does he do?  Merely throw for 217 yards, two TDs, and one INT.  Those numbers may not wow you, but he was efficient and finally garnered significantly positive fantasy points.  Consider, however, that he did so against a very suspect Dallas pass defense.  Ocho Cinco still has not broken out, the Bengals are still a bad team, and the offensive line will probably cause Palmer some problems down the road.  So even though his last outing was encouraging, don't go looking to overpay for him.  He has a lot of issues besides his elbow.

4.  Anthony Fasano is emerging as a threat.  A lot of the buzz is revolving around Tony Scheffler at TE, but Fasano is also beginning to make a name for himself.  Considered a sleeper during the preseason, his performance left some doubt as to whether he would play a significant role.  We can now consider him significant.  Even though he missed the game on Week 2, and Miami had a bye on Week 4, Fasano ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of yards and TDs among TEs.  In his three games, he is averaging 14 yards per reception and 65.7 yards per game.  With Pennington becoming more comfortable in the offense, Fasano's stock will keep rising unless you pick him up real soon.

5.  Good AFC kickers are scarce.  Matt Prater is arguably the best fantasy kicker in football at the moment, and Josh Scobee continues to kick well.  Rian Lindell is naling nearly every kick from Buffalo, but other than those three, it is all NFC.  Why is this?  Hard to say why, but you can see Prater, Lindell and Scobee keeping up the pace because of the makeup of their teams.  On the other hand, unless San Diego's offense gets hot, which would be good for Nate Kaeding, it is hard to imagine any other kicker vaulting into the kicking elite. 

1.  Kyle Orton has become a very interesting option at QB.  Everyone knows about Matt Forte, and how he may be one of the biggest fantasy finds at RB.  What gets lost in the shuffle is how Forte's success affects Orton.  By all appearances, the answer is: a lot.  Would it surprise you to learn that Orton is eighth in the NFL in passing yards?  How about that he is tied for eighth in TDs?  Sure, his four INTs are a little bit of a concern for someone who is supposed to be extremely efficient, but given the fact that Orton is throwing over 30 passes a game, the INTs should not be a worry.  Right now, he is proving to be a very solid fantasy starter.

2.  Tim Hightower may become more than a handcuff to Edgerrin James.  Let's compare.  Edge has 334 yards on 92 carries.  Hightower has 110 yards on 36 carries.  So why would I say Hightower might see more carries?  Consider that Hightower has five TDs to Edge's three.  Consider also that Hightower has proven himself to be a big asset in the passing game, collecting 92 yards on 10 catches, as opposed to Edge's 10 receptions and 73 yards while being the primary RB.  Right now, Hightower is a much bigger red-zone threat than Edge, and that could mean big things in the long run, particularly if the Cardinals make a solid run for the playoffs.  Watch Hightower's progress carefully and see if he chips away at Edge's playing time in any significant manner.

3.  Live or die with Kurt Warner.  Some weeks, you will have games like last week, when Warner turned the ball over six times.  Some weeks, you will have games like this past week, when Warner was masterful in throwing for 250 yards and two TDs (plus no turnovers).  What does all this mean?  Warner will throw for more than 4,000 yards this year, with upwards of 25 TDs or more, but he will give you some bumpy rides along the way.  In the end, though, you cannot throw for 4,000 yards without having more good weeks than bad.  You will just have to absorb the hits along the way and hope the supporting cast can pick up Warner when he starts giving the ball away in a given week.

4.  Bernard Berrian is a solid buy. Gus Frerotte looked awfully comfortable in Minnesota's offense last week.  That can only be good news to Bernard Berrian, who is quietly making himself known to opposing defenses.  Though he has only 17 receptions, he has 305 yards receiving and scored his first TD as a Viking last week.  Perhaps more importantly, as Frerotte got more comfortable, he threw more often to Berrian, helping Berrian garner five catches last week and six catches this week.  The Vikings are now set with Frerotte at QB, which means his comfort level with Berrian should only improve.

5.  Can Reggie Bush single-handedly lift the New Orleans DEF/ST?  In one of the great special-teams performances in NFL history, Bush returned two punts for TDs, enough to make Minnesota head coach Brad Childress fume to the media about his punter, who Childress apparently had ordered to kick the ball out of bounds.  But does Bush's performance merit your picking up New Orleans' DEF/ST?  Don't make that gamble.  The Saints are giving up over 22 points per game and average only two sacks per game.  They do not have a particularly strong defense, so you would almost be gambling on Bush scoring a TD that week.  That would be a highly dubious proposition, and a risk not worth taking.

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