Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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Everything went according to plan for Philadephia in Game 1 of the NLCS. Starter Cole Hamels shook off a shaky first inning to limit the Dodgers to two runs in seven innings of work. Ryan Madson tossed a scoreless eighth before Brad Lidge closed it out for the 44^th consecutive time this season. The 3-2 victory gives the Phillies a 1-0 series lead. With a win in their back pockets, the Phillies are now the statistical favorites according to AccuScore simulations. Before the series began, Philadelphia was projected to advance to the World Series in 47 percent of simulations. Now they are projected to advance in 57 percent of simulations.

Billingsley and Myers will oppose each other in Game 2.

Still, there is no time to rest for the Phillies. Several things broke Philadelphia’s way in the first game. Rafael Furcal made a throwing error that put a runner on for an extra run when Chase Utley found his power stroke and hit a home run off Derek Lowe. That was immediately followed by a home run by Pat Burrell. Manny Ramirez’s long bomb in the first inning sailed well over 400 feet from home plate, but found a small fence on a railing and stayed in the park for a double. If the ball went one foot higher or further to the right, and the Dodgers would have had another run. And of course, Hamels was on the mound and shut down the L.A. lineup for the most part. There is a significant drop in quality in the rotation following him for the Phillies while the Dodgers have several more quality arms.

Despite losing their status as statistical favorites, the Dodgers are still in a very strong position. Unlike in Chicago, there is no need to panic after just one loss. Game two is projected as a 50-50 toss-up with Chad Billingsley opposing Brett Myers in Philly. Both pitchers are hard throwing righties with great stuff, but Billingsley has been much more consistent and reliable as of late. L.A. is then big favorites in each of the three games at Dodger Stadium winning 64, 54, and 62 percent of simulations. Earning a split after two games would swing the momentum right back to Joe Torre’s bunch.

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