Right off the bat, you have to mention the injuries. Boston is without 3B Mike Lowell and Tampa is without closer Troy Percival. Boston’s replacement on the roster goes to RP Mike Timlin, while Tampa has added SP Edwin Jackson.

On paper, Boston has the advantage in 5 of the 9 spots in the line up at 2B with Pedroia, DH with Ortiz, 3B with Youkilis (although it’s a slight edge), LF with Bay and RF with Drew. Tampa ’s advantage is at C with Navarro, 1B with Pena, SS with Bartlett and CF with Upton. The last two with only a slight edge (SS and CF).

Red	Sox Line up	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
CF-L	Jacoby Ellsbury	.280/.336/.394	17.8
2B-R	Dustin Pedroia	.326/.376/.493	62.3
DH-L	David Ortiz	.264/.369/.507	31.6
3B-R	Kevin Youkilis	.312/.390/.569	55.8 @ 1B
RF-L	J.D. Drew	.280/.408/.519	33.8
LF-R	Jason Bay	.286/.373/.522	47.2
1B-L	Sean Casey	.322/.381/.392	8.2
SS-S	Jed Lowrie	.258/.339/.400	8.1
C-S	Jason Varitek	.220/.313/.359	-1.4
Red	Sox Bench	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
CF-S	Coco Crisp	.283/.344/.407	14.2
OF-L	Mark Kotsay	.276/.329/.403	6.7
SS-L	Alex Cora	.270/.371/.349	5.0
C-R	Kevin Cash	.225/.309/.338	-1.5
C-R	David Ross	.225/.369/.352	3.1
Rays	Line up	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
2B-L	Akinori Iwamura	.274/.349/.380	16.0
CF-R	B.J. Upton	.273/.383/.401	32.1
1B-L	Carlos Pena	.247/.377/.494	32.0
3B-R	Evan Longoria	.272/.343/.531	34.8
LF-L	Carl Crawford	.273/.319/.400	7.1
DH-L	Cliff Floyd	.268/.349/.455	12.6
C-S	Dioner Navarro	.295/.349/.407	17.8
RF-L	Gabe Gross	.238/.336/.414	3.9
SS-R	Jason Bartlett	.286/.329/.361	12.9
Rays	Bench	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
OF-R	Rocco Baldelli	.263/.344/.475	4.0 @ DH
INF-	S Willy Aybar	.253/.327/.410	5.2 @ 3B
UT-S	Ben Zobrist	.253/.339/.505	14.7 @ SS
CF-S	Fernando Perez	.249/.323/.351	NA
C-R	Michel Hernandez	.220/.267/.315	NA

The advantage between the rotation depends upon which Josh Beckett we see in this series. If he’s the dominant force the post-season is use to seeing, then I give the advantage to Boston with the exception of game 4. If, however, Beckett is only at regular season efficiency (most likely), then I have to give the Rays the advantage here. The only chance that I’m wrong in this analysis is if the youthful Rays staff finally starts to show it’s lack of experience and has a meltdown.

The bullpen or middle relief edge goes to Tampa , but the edge at closer is in Boston’s advantage by far.

Red	Sox Rotation	IP	ERA		Red	Sox Bullpen	IP	ERA
RHP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	167.2	2.9		RHP	Jonathan Papelbon	69.1	2.34
RHP	Josh Beckett	174.1	4.03		LHP	Hideki Okajima	62	2.61
LHP	Jon Lester	210.1	3.21		RHP	Justin Masterson	88.1	3.16
RHP	Tim Wakefield	181	4.13		LHP	Javier Lopez	59.1	2.43
					RHP	Manny Delcarmen	74.1	3.27
					RHP	Paul Byrd	180	4.6
					RHP	Mike Timlin	49.1	5.66
Rays	Rotation	IP	ERA		Rays	Bullpen	IP	ERA
RHP	James Shields	215	3.56		RHP	Dan Wheeler	66.1	3.12
LHP	Scott Kazmir	152.1	3.49		LHP	J.P. Howell	89.1	2.22
RHP	Matt Garza	184.2	3.7		RHP	Grant Balfour	58.1	1.54
RHP	Andy Sonnanstine	193.1	4.38		LHP	David Price	14	1.93
					RHP	Chad Bradford	59.1	2.12
					LHP	Trever Miller	43.1	4.15
					RHP	Edwin Jackson	183.1	4.42

I see this series going 6 or 7 games of absolutely exciting baseball! It should not disappoint anyone! The Red Sox and their experience will win out! Play ball!!