"Entering Game 5 of this ALCS, since the start of the 2003 season, the Red Sox are an astonishing 16-3 in postseason elimination games, those contests in which at least one team faced the end of its season. The club's only losses in such affairs came in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS (against the New York Yankees), Game 3 of the 2005 AL Divison Series (against the Chicago White Sox) and Game 3 of this year's ALDS (against the Los Angeles Angels)."
The 2008 Red Sox differ greatly from the 04 and 07 clubs that overcame 3-1 deficits - the biggest differences being the absence of Manny Ramirez
in the lineup and the late season injuries to Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett.But I refuse to accept that this team is finished. Matsuzaka pulled some postseason magic out of his hat in Game 1 and there's no reason to think he can't do it again. The Rays knew that patience would be the key to beating Matsuzaka, but that approach didn't help them in Game 1 as Dice-K fanned 9 batters while allowing 4 hits and 4 walks (3 of which came in the 1st inning).
As we mentioned before Game 1, Dice-K loves a good dome and has yet to lose on the road, but he'll be pitching at Fenway tonight where his numbers are good, but not amazing: 9-3, 3.34 ERA, .246 BAA. For some reason, Matsuzaka allowed 80 hits in 91+ inning at home, while holding batters to just 48 hits in 76 innings on the road... the Sox will be hoping that trend doesn't continue tonight.
Interestingly, the Rays will counter with Scott Kazmir, rather than James Shields tonight.
"Kaz has had more success here than Shields, but again, a lot of it has to do with the day off to follow, and then you have a fresh bullpen, thus we did it," Maddon said.
Maddon says he's going with Kazmir because of the numbers, but the reference to a rested bullpen makes me wonder if Maddon is already planning for a trip back to Tampa...
Kazmir is 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 career outings at Fenway, but he's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 starts at Fenway this season. We saw Kaz in Game 2 and pounded him for 5 runs and 3 homers. Back in September Kazmir pitched back to back outing against the Sox, holding us to 2 runs through 6 in what eventually became a 5-4 win for the Rays at Fenway... but he lasted just 3 innings after giving up 9 runs and 4 homers in a 5-13 loss five days later at the Trop.
Bottom Line: Sean McAdam put it well:
“We’re not looking to give them any kind of crack,” Maddon said yesterday.
But he’s done more than offer them a crack. In rearranging his rotation with an apparent eye toward a worst-case scenario, Maddon is holding the door wide open for the Red Sox, taking their coats and directing them to make themselves comfortable.
One pitch, one at-bat, one game at a time fellas.
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