There are a few things about this Fantasy Game of the Week that you can feel confident about and take to the bank: 1) this game will feature the best fantasy football value on both sides of the ball; 2) if you bet on football (which nobody does, of course… right?), and bet this game in particular, you can rest assured that it will fly over the total; and 3) by the end of this article, you will be convinced and I will look like somewhat of a genius.
To be honest, this game was somewhat of a toss up between the Giants/Lions game, but when I looked at how the Cardinals have played on the road and what this game means to the Bengals, I wanted to completely dissect it due to the vast array of fantasy options. However, the one alarming statistic about this game, and the one deterrent that almost forced me to do the NYG/DET game, was how these Cardinals have shown a lack of consistency on the road. In five road games this season, they have managed a high game of 34 points against the Rams and a low of 10 points against the Bucs. So you ask, why would anyone choose an Arizona game on the road as the fantasy game of the week? The answer is relatively easy considering that QB Kurt Warner has not started in every game this season and in the ones that he has, the Cardinals have played very well despite his left elbow injury. This team trusts Warner, and with that trust, Warner plays with confidence and the entire offense follows suit.
As it stands, neither defense is a worthy opponent and definitely not a fantasy option, but each offense offers at least four offensive fantasy starters, and that does not include the kicker position with Neil Rackers and Shayne Graham.
As we look at both sides of the ball for these visiting Cardinals, we understand that with the exception of only two games this season, they consistently move the ball and put points on the board, while they consistently give up a ton of yards and allow over 21 points per game. Offensively, the Cardinals average 319 yards per game, 21 points per game, and are no strangers to the end zone. To no surprise, RB Edgerrin James leads the way with 5 touchdowns and is on pace to have another 1,200 yard rushing season. WR Anquan Boldin started out fast, but a hip injury has limited his touchdown receptions to 5 in only six games this season. Boldin’s partner in crime, WR Larry Fitzgerld, has 3 touchdowns and has finally begun to heat up after a slow start. The aforementioned Warner has thrown 9 touchdowns in only seven games with only four starts, and TE Leonard Pope, who caught two touchdowns last week, has a total of four on the season. With Warner playing well as the starter, this offense has the talent and ability to be one of the best in the NFL. Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, the Cardinals do not possess the same type of talent or ability, and defensively have given up 302 yards per game. Against the pass (Cincinnati’s strongest attribute), Arizona allow 202 yards per game and has yielded a total of 11 passing touchdowns in only nine games. With that in mind, and the fact that RB Rudi Johnson is healthy, and his reliable backup Kenny Watson has played well in his absence, Arizona is in for a long day defensively.
For the Bengals, it does not get any better on their defense – this unit is currently ranked 27th in yards allowed and 31st in touchdown receptions (20). On the other hand, it may not get any better (in a good way) offensively either. We all know what the Bengals do on the offensive side of the ball. With QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Johnson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, RB Rudi Johnson, and now with the addition of WR Chris Henry (15 career touchdowns in only 9 games started), we are talking about one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bengals currently rank 8th in the NFL in total offense, 9th in points scored (219), and K Shayne Graham is 6th in fantasy points for kickers. It makes you scratch your head on just why this team has been struggling so much this season – but then again, it all comes back to the Bengals atrocious defense.
However we want to look at it, this match-up definitely offers the most in terms of fantasy production and points, considering that both defenses have given fans much to be desired this season. The current over/under on this game is 48.5 points, and in my opinion, it should reach the high fifties to low sixties without a doubt.
Check out more commentary and analysis from Aaron McGhee at the Fan Prophet blog. |
