The top two closers in the National League from last year in terms of saves have both found new homes after Friday’s trade that sent Jose Valverde, whose 47 saves led all of baseball in 2007, from Arizona to the Houston Astros. Earlier in the offseason, Francisco Cordero left the promising young Brewers for a four-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Both closers finally lived up to expectations in 2007, as Valverde had the season that Arizona had been waiting for and Cordero returned to his 2004 form (49 saves in 54 chances, 2.14 ERA, 79 Ks in 72.1 IP). Both pitchers looked to be promising fantasy selections in 2008 drafts and near the top of the closer options, but neither pitcher will benefit from his change of scenery.
Valverde heads from Arizona, a team which won 90 games in 2007, to a Houston club that won just 73. Arizona ranked 7th in the majors in team ERA at 4.13, while the Astros pitching staff was 21st in baseball at more than half a run worse (4.68).
There is potential here, however, as Houston added slugging SS Miguel Tejada, who, depending on potential repercussions from the Mitchell Report, should boost the Astros paltry offense. Houston finished 24th in the league with 723 runs scored, a slight edge over Arizona’s 712. The Astros bats also managed a lowly .260 team batting average, which again is an improvement over the D-backs .250.
Valverde should maintain or improve on his excellent numbers of 2007 (2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 78 Ks in 64.1 IP), as having the distinction of being the only player in history to be traded the year after leading baseball in saves should only motivate him to be better. Unfortunately, Valverde’s skills are not the “X-Factor” in his potential for saves, as last year’s Houston tandem of RP Brad Lidge and RP Dan Wheeler (prior to his trade to Tampa Bay) combined for just 42 save chances in 2007 on a team that, as of now, should not see too much improvement in ’08.
Meanwhile, pay attention in the spring to whoever lands Arizona’s stopper role.
Cordero finds himself in a similar situation, as his stellar numbers landed him the big contract he sought, but with an inferior team. While the Brewers and Reds have similar offensive numbers with the Brew Crew’s 801 total runs and .262 team batting average compared to Cincy’s 783 runs and .267 BA from ‘07, Milwaukee’s offensive potential seems so much more promising than that of the Reds. The Brewers launched the most home runs in baseball in 2007 with 231, where as Cincy was third in that category with 204. The Brewers, however, flaunt a lineup with seven of eight position players under the age of 30, five of whom are 25 or younger and all of whom figure to continue to improve in 2008. Cincinnati contrasts this with only two definite fielders under 30 heading into spring training.
Much like Valverde, Cordero leaves a team with an ERA over half-a-run better than his new team (4.41 in Milwaukee to 4.94 in Cincinnati). Only three teams in baseball had a higher team ERA than the Reds. RP David Weathers, last year’s closer in Cincinnati, had just 39 save opportunities, converting 33, compared to Cordero’s 51 opportunities in Milwaukee.
Cordero’s numbers last year were a drastic improvement compared to his final stint in Texas over the first part of 2006 (2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 86 Ks in 63.1 IP compared to 4.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 54 Ks in 48.2 IP), but his command returned after his trade to Milwaukee that year and has not let down yet. He turns 33 in May, but Cordero owners in 2008 should expect similar numbers with fewer save opportunities until he starts to act like he is in Texas again.
Milwaukee, in turn, brought in RP Eric Gagne, another name from the Mitchell Report, to replace Cordero, but which Gagne did they sign? Is it the dominating fireballer who, as a Ranger prior to the trade deadline last season, resembled the bespectacled intimidator he was when he squelched a record 84-straight ninth-inning rally attempts with the Dodgers earlier in his career? Or is it the Gagne who was so aptly nicknamed “Gag-me” in Boston over 20 appearances to close out ’07 after allowing 14 earned runs in 18.2 innings and blowing three of three save chances?
Gagne has every opportunity to succeed in Milwaukee so long as he can shake whatever ailed him in Boston. If Gagne falters or faces consequences from the steroid allegations, look for newly-acquired RP Salomon Torres, who struggled through 12 saves as Pittsburgh’s closer in 2007, or RP Derrick Turnbow, who has 64 career saves, to step in. |
