Fantasy Keepers/Buy Low,Sell High

Buy Low, Sell High.
by TJ Ford

The title says it all. It is a simple strategy in theory but in actuality, it is difficult to execute. To sell high, you must anticipate a dropoff but sell at present value and similarly, to buy low, you must anticipate an increase but buy at present value. In fantasy football, this principle isn’t much different.

2007 was the year of the QB/WR tandem. Many championship teams were built on the back of receiver star power and questionable running talent. Quite the opposite of many years past where a workhorse RB1 was the absolute focus of your fantasy team. Use this shift in fantasy ideology to capitalize on buy low/sell high players in your keeper/dynasty league.

Sell High - TJ Houshmandzadeh WR CIN

TJ is coming off of a career year where he led the league in receptions with 112. He also piled up 1143 receiving yards and 12 TDs. What that stat line doesn’t tell you is that 10 of TJ’s 12 touchdowns were caught before Chris Henry’s return from an eight game suspension. TJ’s production suffered down the stretch but altogether, his year makes his appear to be a fantasy WR1. Hype up his career year to potential suitors and trade him before the dropoff

Buy Low - Jamal Lewis RB CLE

Last year was a great comeback year for Lewis where he piled up 1552 total yards and 11 TDs. His O-line is young and solid, I’m buying any runningback they are selling. However, J-Lew’s accomplishments seemed to fall by the way-side to the stellar performance for Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Lewis is an UFA but Cleveland does not have a first-round pick. Look for Lewis to resign with the Browns. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Lewis’ contact and his quiet numbers, you may be able to pick up Lewis on the cheap.

Sell High - Patriots Passing Attack

It happens every year. Players break records and are hyped. The fantasy community eats it up and we base our drafts on last year’s production. After all, it is the most recent barometer of a player’s production, right? Not necessarily.

After LT’s record-breaking performance in 2006, I was poised to ride LT to another championship in ‘07 in my local dynasty league until I got an open trade offer from another owner. He wanted LT in a bad way. So I traded away LT and Philip Rivers for Brian Westbrook, Peyton Manning and the first overall rookie pick. Everyone groaned at my apparent foolishness because I am trading a guy who regularly got 3+ TDs a game. Westbrook, Manning and my rookie pick (Adrian Peterson) brought me my second straight championship.

My point is that Brady, Moss and Welker won’t fall off of the map, but to expect 50+ TDs from Brady, 112 receptions from Welker and 23 TDs from Moss again is folly. Don’t trade them for the sake of trading them. But if you can get 50+TD quality out of Brady now, I say do it.

Buy Low - Marc Bulger QB STL

Injuries are the main culprit in Bulger’s down year this year. His O-line was crippled by injuries throughout the season which led to Bulger himself being injured in the middle of the season. The Rams never did recover and now possess the 2nd overall draft pick. Look for the Rams to select an O-lineman (likely Jake Long from Michigan) to bolster their ranks. When Bulger is given time, he has proven to be an excellent QB; both NFL and fantasy. His injury-marred season with have him low in value this year, buy him if the price is right.

Sell High - Detroit WRs

Word on the street is that Mike Martz, the offensive coordinator for the Detriot Lions, is on the way out. If that is the case, you have to downgrade every receiver not named Roy Williams. Sell them high before this happens.

Buy Low - Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ

Laveranues Coles missed a huge chunk of the season with a concussion. He has not proven durable this season. However, his counterpart, Jerricho Cotchery, amassed 82 catches for 1129 yards and 2 TDs despite breaking his hand midway through the season. He had surgery on that hand and only missed one game. He is young and has a frame built for catching the ball. I believe that he will be the future of the Jets passing attack. Buy him low while he is still considering the WR2.

Sell High - DJ Williams LB DEN

For those IDP player out there, you may want to consider moving DJ Williams while he is hot. Ian Gold, starting SLB for the Broncos, will likely be cut this offseason, opening a possible move back to the outside, where many feel that he is best suited. Williams amassed 106 solos and 35 assists landing him 2nd amoungst all LBs in for standard fantasy IDP scoring. If Williams heads to OLB, his fantasy value will take a huge hit, move him now while you can get solid value from him.

Buy Low - Brandon McGowan SS CHI

This kid stepped in after Adam Archuleta was benched for poor pass coverage and performed well. The strong safety for Chicago has historically been a boon of IDP scoring and I expect McGowan to be no different. If McGowan isn’t owned, get him now. If he is, he can likely still be obtained for cheap.

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