1. Kobe Bryant, LAL - 27.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steal
It seems like long gone are the days of Kobe trying to drop 60 points on everybody and taking 27 shots per game (he now takes 20 per game). Even with the fewer shots per game, he is still easily the best shooting guard in all of fantasy basketball. Bryant’s all-around game means that he contributes in every category for your fantasy team, except for blocked shots. His shooting percentages are high and with the amount of shots and free throws that he takes per game, he is going to be a significant boost to those categories for your fantasy team.
Why He’s Been Valuable: Well, he is the best player in basketball – and it is not even close. It does not translate to him being the best fantasy player in all of basketball, but over the past five years, Bryant has been the 2nd most valuable fantasy player behind Kevin Garnett. The reason is his all-around game. There are only two players who average over 20 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals per game – Kobe is one… LeBron James is the other.
What’s Holding Him Back?: He does not block shots. It is hard to come up with a knock against Bryant’s fantasy game. He turns the ball over 3.1 times per game, but other than that, he is simply the best shooting guard in the fantasy world since Michael Jordan.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: Bryant is going to continue to be the best at this position. In fact, with Andrew Bynum’s injury and being out for eight weeks, Kobe might be forced to revert back to the Kobe Bryant who scores 60. Expect to win your points scored category if Bryant is your guy.
2. Kevin Martin, SAC - 24.9 points, 1.4 steals, 1.9 3FGM, 47.3% FG
I have to admit that I was dead wrong about this guy. For the first two years of his career, I thought that Martin would be out of the league in five years. After his breakout year last season, I figured that he might be a nice bench player who goes back and forth from the starting lineup to the 6th man role for whatever team he is on for the next 10 years. Now, after the way Martin has efficiently scored at a high volume and high level this season, I am convinced that this guy is worth the 5-year, $55 million contract extension that the Kings gave him this season.
Why He’s Been Valuable: This guy scores at an unreal rate with fantastic efficiency. Martin drops 25 points or more on defenders like it is nothing. There are five players who average more points per game than Kevin Martin. Dwyane Wade does it by taking 18.4 shots per game. Martin scores 24.9 per game by taking only 15.8 shots per game. He also takes 9.4 free throws per game and shoots those at a rate of 86%. This guy is extremely efficient and extremely good at what he does best – scoring.
What’s Holding Him Back?: He only averages 1.8 assists per game, and as a top guard in this league, he needs to share the ball a little more. This is really the only thing that Martin does not do well besides shot blocking. That has been the only knock on him this year sans his groin injury that caused him to miss significant time.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I expect Martin to only get better as the year goes on. He is learning the league and may average over 27 points per game the rest of the season as he becomes a smart, efficient scorer. He will also continue to get better on defense, which should lead him to averaging close to 2 steals per game. Martin is a must-have and I would not give him away unless I was getting Kobe Bryant in return.
3. Allen Iverson, DEN - 27.0 points, 6.9 assists, 2.0 steals, 81.6% FT
I have been covering the NBA for the better part of four years now and I feel like I say that Allen Iverson is having the best season of his career every single year. Well, this year, he is definitely having the best fantasy season of his career. His scoring and assists are the lowest they have been in six years. However, he has the second best shooting percentage (46%) of his career and his lowest turnover rate (3.3) in nine years.
Why He’s Been Valuable: He hass been so valuable because that he scores 27 points per game and averages almost 7 assists per game. Only LeBron James does this. Iverson also shoots a high percentage from the free throw line and gets to the line almost 10 times per game. All of these things add up to just another typical Allen Iverson season.
What’s Holding Him Back?: He still turns the ball over at a very high rate, rebounds under 3 times per game and understandably has blocked only 7 shots this season. He does not contribute in all categories in a positive way. Iverson also only makes 1.1 three-point field goals per game, and if you are in a league that keeps track of three-point percentage, his 33.1% from beyond the arc does not exactly scream efficiency.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: With all of the injuries that the Nuggets have endured this season, it looks like Allen Iverson may get closer and closer to that familiar 30-point plateau that he has finished at in four of his previous 11 seasons. He is going to score, his assists are going to be high and he is going to get your fantasy team steals. Do not deal him for anybody below him on this list.
4. Manu Ginobili, SAS - 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.1 3FGM
Ginobili is one of the most well-rounded shooting guards in the entire NBA. He gives you nearly 20 points per game, averages more than 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game, makes 2 three-pointers per game and steals the ball more than 1.5 times every night. His free throw percentage is high at 82.5% and his shooting percentage is very solid at 44.7% from the field. Except for maybe Kobe Bryant, no other shooting guard is able to produce at this all-around level.
Why He’s Been Valuable: It is every reason that I just stated in the paragraph above. Ginobili is the best bench player in the league and if he had not missed six games earlier this season, then he would be in the Top 10 in three-pointers made in the league. His free throw shooting, along with his field goal shooting, make him an extremely efficient scorer who does not usually hurt your fantasy team on most nights. He is so consistent off the bench for the Spurs that Ginobili has only scored under 10 points in two games this season.
What’s Holding Him Back?: Considering that he only plays 29.7 minutes per game, his average of 2.7 turnovers per game is a bit high for comfort. Also, the fact that he averages just 0.4 blocks per game after racking up only 15 blocked shots this year. Once again, with a player who does so much, I am just nitpicking here to find things wrong with this fantasy All-Star.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I would expect Ginobili to be just like Tim Duncan and continue to get better and more productive as the year progresses. Expect averages of close to 20, 5 and 5 for the second half of the season. He is probably the surest thing outside of Kobe Bryant for the rest of the season to be an all-around player in fantasy basketball.
5. Jason Richardson, CHA - 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 2.9 3FGM
J-Rich has been steadily increasing his scoring all season long. During the first month of the season, Richardson did not fit in much with the Bobcats and struggled to average 16.9 points per game on 41.3% shooting. In December, he got more comfortable by shooting 44.2% from the field and scoring 20.2 points per game. During the month of January, he has really begun to establish himself with the Bobcats by averaging 23.7 points per game on 45.3% from the field.
Why He’s Been Valuable: His scoring has become so good this month that for fantasy owners who held onto Richardson and did not throw him into trades, it is really beginning to pay off. Richardson has been on a tear from three-point range and leads the league as of Wednesday afternoon with 117 three-pointers made. He makes nearly 3 three-pointers per game and only Rashard Lewis has come close to matching that (115).
What’s Holding Him Back?: His shooting percentage for the year is getting better, but is still pretty sub-par for someone who shoots so much. Richardson is only shooting 43.6% from the field and 71.2% from the free throw line. He also does not block shots very well at just 0.7 per game, but that is not terrible for a shooting guard.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I would like to think that Richardson will continue to score 3 more points than the previous month for the rest of the year, but that would put him in Michael Jordan territory by April. I do not see him dropping below 20 points per game because he knows how to score, yet he may not shoot a high percentage for the rest of the season. He will battle with Rashard Lewis for the league leader in three-pointers made all season long. I think Richardson will still produce for most fantasy teams, but do not expect an all-around game.
6. Michael Redd, MIL - 22.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 86.2% FT
The sweetest lefty shooter since Nick Van Exel has had a nice season, but it has been a little disappointing in terms of his scoring ability. His scoring has gone from a career high 26.7 last season to just 22.8 points per game this season. In addition, his shooting percentage from the field has dropped nearly 2.5%. He is making fewer three-pointers per game than last year, as well. With all of that said, Redd has significantly raised his assists per game from 2.3 to 3.6 and 3.7 rebounds per game to 4.7.
Why He’s Been Valuable: Redd is valuable because he is a really good scorer who connects almost 2 times per game from three-point range. He has also upped free throw percentage to 86.2% from the charity stripe, while getting to the line 6.9 times per game. He scores efficiently and scores a lot.
What’s Holding Him Back?: He does not do much on the defensive end of the floor, considering that he averages only 1 steal per game and just 0.2 blocks per contest. Redd would be a lot more valuable to fantasy owners if he could up his averages to 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game. He is not known as an all-around player.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I think that he can up his scoring, but his January numbers are not very encouraging. Redd is down to 19.0 points per game this month and has been under 3 assists per game. I would expect him to score 25 points or high per game the rest of the season and unleash a three-point barrage on the rest of the league. However, if you are looking for all-around production, you might want to deal Redd for Ginobili.
7. Andre Iguodala, PHI - 19.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.3 steals
Iguodala was deemed to be the next Scottie Pippen of the league because of his all-around game and defensive prowess. Well, that was a case of experts getting a little ahead of themselves because Pippen is one of the 50 greatest players of all time and Iguodala is barely one of the 50 best players in this league. Nevertheless, in terms of fantasy basketball, Iguodala has been golden. His all-around game is making him extremely valuable and one of the top guys to hold on to for keeper leagues.
Why He’s Been Valuable: The guy is approaching that rare territory of 20, 5 and 5, which would put him in the fantasy company of LeBron and Kobe. Combine that with his 2.3 steals per game, and you have a very valuable fantasy player. Iguodala is actually 4th in the league in steals. If he keeps progressing like he has, he should be in that rare elite fantasy status in no time.
What’s Holding Him Back?: His shooting percentages are not great (43.6% from the field, 71.2% from the free throw line) and his turnovers are pretty high considering that he does not handle the ball most of the time. Also, Iguodala does not block many shots (0.6) for someone who is supposed to be the next Pippen.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: The Sixers are typically more competitive in the second half of seasons in recent history, and this will be fueled by the play of Andre Iguodala. He is turning into a guy who is a triple-double waiting to happen. Iguodala is currently ranked 31st amongst fantasy players and he should play well enough in the second half of the season to creep into the Top 25.
8. Ray Allen, BOS - 18.2 points, 92% FT, 2.4 3FGM, 1.7 TO
When Ray Allen was asked to carry Sonics and Bucks teams, he was a Top 20 fantasy basketball player every year. You occasionally had to worry that his ankles would give out with the weight of carrying dying franchises, but for the most part, you knew that Allen was going to give you 25 points and 200 three-pointers. His shooting percentage is not great right now, but he still contributes a valuable amount of points, three-pointers and has a very high free throw percentage. Allen is not a Top 20 guy anymore, but he is still someone who everyone wants on his/her fantasy team.
Why He’s Been Valuable: He is still draining a lot of threes right now on his new Celtics team and is still a threat to drop 30 points on an opponent on any given night. Allen’s 18.2 points per game is still a very solid number, and with him not having to make plays every game, his turnovers are a very respectable 1.7 per contest. He also shoots one of the highest free throw percentages in the league and 92% will always be a valuable number in that department.
What’s Holding Him Back?: Well, now that he has two All-Stars on his side, Allen does not need to be the sole playmaker on his squad. This means that his rebounds and assists are way down from what you would hope they would be. 3 assists per game is a big man number and a player with Allen’s playmaking ability should be near 5 assists per game. Also, with a team that is so good on defense, you would like to see him run into more than 1 steal per game.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: There are going to be nights where he looks like the man who played Jesus Shuttlesworth in “He Got Game” and he will remind you of the Top 20 player of old. However, for the most part, you are going to get much of the same that Allen has given your fantasy team this year. Expect him to finish around 150 to 170 three-pointers made, a free throw percentage around 90% and roughly 18 points per game.
9. Mike Miller, MEM - 16.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.3 3FGM
I took a big risk at the beginning of this season. In a previous article here at FIO, I mentioned the Big Man Theory where you load up on big men to ensure that you win field goal percentage, scoring, rebounding, turnovers, and blocked shot categories. I subscribe to this theory because, simply, I invented the theory. It works if you work the waiver wire properly when you start the season and find the gems in free agency that provide assists and steals. Well, at the beginning of the season, I traded Mehmet Okur for Mike Miller because I was sorely lacking at the guard position. That trade has proven to be a steal for me. That is what Mike Miller does for fantasy teams. He gives you the steal in trades when you acquire him from another team in your fantasy league.
Why He’s Been Valuable: This guy has an all-around game and drops a lot of three-pointers on opposing teams. Miller is going to be a threat to score 30 points on any given night, grab about 7 to 8 rebounds and rack up half a dozen assists. He also shoots an extremely high percentage from the field (51.9%) and shoots a solid free throw percentage (81.6%).
What’s Holding Him Back?: Miller gives you virtually nothing in the steals and blocked shots department and has a high number of turnovers (2.9). To figure out a player’s all-around worth, I like to combine steals and blocks into one category. If a guard is giving you over 2 in the newly created category, then he is giving you a lot there. Mike Miller adds up to just 0.8 when you combine his steals (0.5) and blocks (0.3).
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I think that Miller is going to give fantasy teams a fantastic second half of the year. The Grizzlies finally have figured out their point guard situation, and with Mike Conley running the show, they now have a distributor that will create open shots for his teammates. This could mean an explosion in three-pointers made for Mike Miller. Expect him to rack up a triple-double or two for the rest of the year and score about 18 to 19 points per game the rest of the way.
10. Richard Hamilton, DET - 18.8 points, 4.4 assists, 49.8% FG, 81.8% FT
Hamilton has long been one of the more underrated shooting guards in fantasy basketball. He is underrated because he is the personification of consistency. Hamilton simply does not have bad games throughout the years. He has only had two games this year in which he did not score in double figures, and one of them was the blowout loss to the Knicks where he played only half of the game. He is hitting a three-pointer every game that he plays on average, and still shoots free throws at a very good percentage. Hamilton will rarely wow you with a great game, but he almost always has a good one.
Why He’s Been Valuable: Not only is he extremely efficient as a scorer with a 49.8 field goal percentage, but he has gone back to being the playmaker that he was four years ago when he averaged 4.9 assists per game. This year, after two consecutive years of fewer than 4 assists per game, Hamilton is back up to 4.4 assists every night. Add in the fact that even though he has been more of a playmaker this year, he still averages just fewer than 2 turnovers per game (1.9). He is consistently good and does not have games that hurt your fantasy team.
What’s Holding Him Back?: He barely gets 1 steal per game, does not block shots and does not rebound a whole lot. Those are three categories that you are not usually getting contributions from Hamilton in on a nightly basis. If he was getting 4 rebounds instead of 3.3 and 1.7 steals instead of 1, he would be 3 or 4 spots higher on this list.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year: I would expect Hamilton to give fantasy team exactly what he has given so far this year. Do not expect his numbers to waver at all, as he will continue to be the consistent performer that he has been for the past five years. He is definitely not a player that I would throw into a trade unless you are getting a Top 5 player in return.
THE REST OF THE BEST
11. John Salmons, SAC - 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 51.3% FG
12. Brandon Roy, POR - 19.3 points, 5.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 TO
13. Vince Carter, NJN - 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 3FGM
14. Joe Johnson, ATL - 22.1 points, 5.4 assists, 2.0 3FGM, 84.5% FT
15. Dwyane Wade, MIA - 25.0 points, 6.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 4.4 TO
16. Jamal Crawford, NYK - 19.9 points, 4.7 assists, 2.0 3FGM, 86.9% FT
17. Monta Ellis, GSW - 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 50.4% FG, 1.3 steals
18. Ronnie Brewer, UTA - 12.3 points, 1.9 steals, 54.5% FG, 2.0 assists
19. Ben Gordon, CHI - 19.6 points, 92.3% FT, 1.8 3FGM, 42.1% FG
20. Stephen Jackson, GSW - 20.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.2 3FGM
AND THEN THERE’S…
Tracy McGrady, HOU - 22.0 points, 5.1 assists, 1.4 3FGM, 4.7 rebounds
His numbers are still very good for fantasy basketball because there are not many players who hit threes and consistently get you 20, 5 and 4. McGrady’s shooting percentage at 43.8% is not great for someone who shoots so much, but that is not the issue with him. T-Mac has missed 14 games already this season and it looks like back and knee problems will plague him throughout the rest of the year. Can you rely on him to be there for 85% of the remaining games? Do you sell high on this guy right now after he comes back and drops 40, or do you pray that he finishes the year healthy? I say trade this guy immediately if you can get something of good value in return. And if you decide to hang on to McGrady, you might want to visit church a little more frequently.
Check out more commentary and analysis from Zach Harper at TalkHoops.net. |
