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So far all 43 of Mayweather victims thought they had the game plan to beat Floyd Mayweather. It’s always something on the lines of cutting off the ring, putting pressure on Mayweather and throwing aggressive combinations of body and head shots. And in almost all of Mayweather’s fights, his opponents come out aggressive, they force him against the ropes, they go to the body, and maybe they win the first couple rounds. But by the 4th or 5th rounds, Mayweather figures them out and they start missing, and pretty soon they get hopeless; they throw less punches; they get more reluctant to attack as Mayweather works his counter punches, and Mayweather ends up potting shotting his way to a unanimous decision victory. Will Canelo be any different? The odd makers in Las Vegas think so. While Canelo is still the underdog at +230, his chances are much better than his previous opponents such as Robert Guerrero whose odds were +475. What is it about Canelo that makes him different than Mayweather’s previous victims? Can he pull the upset? Here at Futbol and Football, we will look at areas where Canelo or Mayweather are expected to have advantages over each other.
The most obvious advantages Canelo has over Mayweather are his youth,size and power. Canelo typically walks around at 175 pounds and weighed 172 pounds on the night he fought Austin Trout. The September 14 fight will be fought at 152 pounds, so Canelo would probably weigh around 168 pounds on the night of the fight. Meanwhile, Mayweather fights close to his walk around weight of 151 pounds and has never exceeded 152 pounds on his fight. Thus,expect Canelo to outweigh Mayweather by nearly 20 pounds. In addition to size, Canelo’s power will also play a key role. He has won 30 out of 43 fights by knockout and sent Austin Trout to the floor in his last fight. While Floyd proved that he could take a punch in his fights with Mosley, and Cotto, both of those fighters were past their prime and probably don’t possess Canelo’s punching power. If Canelo were to win, he would almost certainly win by knockout. Floyd’s superb defense and accurate punches make Canelo unlikely to outpunch Mayweather and win on points. Nonetheless, even if Canelo does lose, expect Mayweather to have more bumps and bruises than usual especially if Mayweather decides to stand in the pocket with Canelo.
Mayweather has had 26 wins by KO, however, besides his controversial knockout of Victor Ortiz, Mayweather hasn’t finished a fight since his last knockout victory over Ricky Hatton in 2007. A knockout is unlikely for Mayweather at this stage in his career because he is always undersized in his fights. Canelo will be Mayweather’s biggest opponent. Mayweather’s punches are also weaker than Canelo because Mayweather doesn’t take risks in his punches as he normally throws about 1-2 punches and gets out of the way. Meanwhile, Canelo tends to take more risk with his punch combinations. Mayweather throws punches to score points, Canelo throws punches to score knockouts.
Hand speed and accuracy:
However in boxing, speed and accuracy are more important than power. Having powerful punches is useless if the punches don’t land. Fortunately, speed and accuracy are some of the most underrated aspects of Canelo’s game. In his previous fight Canelo connected 43% of his power punches. As seen in most of his fight Canelo is not the typical careless brawler throwing wild punches, rather his punches are often measured with a jab and varied with a combination of hooks, upper cuts, and crosses to the head and body and landing with incredible accuracy. Like Mayweather, Canelo also has an underrated ability to make adjustments in his offense. While, he is known for throwing beautiful combinations, in the fight against Austin Trout, Canelo was aware of Trout’s counterpunching abilities and started using counters, feints and head movement to outland Austin Trout. We can expect Canelo to probably adopt this approach in his fight with Mayweather.
Mayweather doesn’t throw a lot of punches and rarely does he throw anything more than a 3 punch combination, but when he does throw a punch they land.Mayweather doesn’t throw a punch unless he thinks there is a good chance he will land it. Mayweather has the highest punching accuracy at a rate of 46%, but in his last fight against Robert Guerrero Mayweather landed 60% of his power punches. Canelo recently said in an interview that Mayweather offense only consists of jabs and straight right hands. While this may seem true in some of Mayweather’s fights, his offense is actually has much more variety as Mayweather is the king of adjustments and adapts his offense based on his opponent’s openings. In the Guerrero fight, Mayweather mainly threw right hands because that was the punch Guerrero was most vulnerable to. In the Cotto fight Mayweather realized that Cotto fought in a peek-a-boo stance the whole fight, so he adjusted his strategy and started throwing looping right hands right around Cotto’s guard. In the Hatton fight, Mayweather knew that Hatton was lunging into his attacks carelessly with his face first, so Mayweather timed a perfect check hook to knockout Hatton. At this point its difficult to predict how Mayweather will attack, as his offense will depend on the openings he sees in Canelo’s defense.
Defense is another underrated aspect of Canelo’s game. Canelo has superb head movement and a knows when to use a tight a guard. Canelo also showed quite superb defense in his fight against Austin Trout. Trout only landed 20% of his total punches and 27% of his power punches. Canelo at times even adopts some of Mayweather moves like the shoulder roll. It will interesting to see if Canelo will be able to even counter Mayweather punches using Mayweather’s moves!
Canelo’s defense is underrated but Mayweather’s defense is unbelievably out of this world. Mayweather defense is based on the idea that the less you get hit, the longer you last. Therefore, he rarely takes risks or puts himself in a position where he might get caught. Mayweather normally starts the beginning rounds slow to study his opponent. But by the 4th or 5th rounds, he has his opponents all figured out and it is as if Mayweather is able to see his opponent’s punches in slow motion. An interesting aspect of Mayweather’s defense is that he is able to make his opponents barely miss and puts himself in a position for a devastating counter. Furthemore, the last fight with Guerrero showed that Mayweather still has his footwork. Canelo’s power and offensive talent might take Mayweather longer than usual to figure him out and he might take a couple good hits figuring out Canelo but expect Mayweather to make the adjustments by round 6 and begin to frustrate Canelo.
To conclude Canelo will be Mayweather’s toughest fight. Canelo has the speed, heart, power, crowd and talent to give Mayweather a tough challenge. We can expect Canelo to land some good shots on Mayweather in the beginning stages of the fight. However, Mayweather’s defense will be too good for Canelo to dominate. He will make the necessary adjustments and begin to exploit Canelo’s weaknesses by the middle of the fight. Canelo also tends to get tired towards the later rounds and this is where Mayweather will begin to dominate the fight and win with a unanimous decision albeit with a bloody nose and a slight reconfiguration of his face.
Result: Mayweather by unanimous decision 115-113. 7 Rounds to 5