Below is our attempt to catch the non-power conference teams that appear headed toward relevance in March. The standard numbers we look at can be found here; I only got Randy on board for this one, so all the discussion and ratings are from the two of us. Also note that the order below is completely meaningless. The Big East preview will be posted Monday morning, and look for various other preview content later in the week.
Memphis
RM: The addition of Elliot Williams from Duke may have saved this team from a complete meltdown. He only averaged four points in 16 minutes for the Devils, but his late addition to the starting lineup last year made Duke much more athletic and effective defensively. If he can handle that role for Memphis, and I think he can, we'll get to see just how deep John Calipari's last couple of teams actually were (Witherspoon, Mack, Sallie, Kemp).
VW: I think the Tigers may have a down year at some point because of Calipari's departure, but I'd guess that will be next year, when Mack, Kemp, and Henderson-Niles graduate. For now they still have all the talent he brought in, so they should be okay, although it'll obviously be quite a drop from the last two years.
Final rating: .855
Gonzaga
RM: Can you believe that last year's Zags were the nation's #1 defensive team against twos? Seems impossible. Though not as hyped as some of his teammates, Bouldin was actually the second most efficient player they had last year, with a 54%/42% split from 2/3. There will have to be a dropoff at a national level, but they'll still probably win the WCC.
VW: It's kind of surprising that they don't have a stronger recruiting class to balance out the graduations of Pargo, Heytvelt, and Downs, but both Bouldin and Gray (58% from two) were extremely efficient last year, so they should be able to pick up some of the slack of last year's seniors and Mr. Tough.
Final rating: .855
Xavier
RM: Another team with some big losses, including head coach Sean Miller. Lebron-dunker Jordan Crawford will help things, but the sophomore class of Terrell Holloway, Kenny Frease and Brad Redford will have to seriously step up if XU expects to win 25+ games and the A-10 again.
VW: Jason Love and Frease could be an excellent combo on the boards in increased minutes for both of them. Redford shot 47% from three last year; his outside shooting could be huge in replacing the offensive production of Raymond and Brown.
Final rating: .865
BYU
RM: Despite the loss of Lee Cummard this should be a really good team, with Jonathan Tavernari and Jimmer Fredette returning. If the Cougars can get improved boardwork from Chris Miles (6'11) and James Anderson (6'10), this team could finally win a first round NCAA game (last time: 1993).
VW: I'm not quite as high on these guys as Randy; I don't think they were as good as their final KenPom rating last year (.919), and replacing Cummard's production (122.3 ORtg) will be tough. Fredette and Emery were both very good as sophomores last year though, so they're probably the MWC favorites.
Final rating: .880
Butler
RM: The Bulldogs are media darlings this year, but deservedly so. The multi-dimensional Gordon Hayward would star for anyone in the country, and Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are no joke either. Everyone else returns, as this was basically a team of freshmen/sophomores last year. Butler is a Sweet 16 team without question based on their talent level.
VW: This is the best team outside the big six conferences, and it doesn't appear to be particularly close. It's hard to project them both because they literally return everybody, and they were surprisingly good last year despite losing a ton from their strong '08 team. Hayward was ridiculously good as a freshman (52% from two, 45% from three), and should be an even bigger part of the offense this season.
Final rating: .922
Dayton
RM: I'm not sold on media selection of UD as the best team in the A10, even though they return nearly everyone including super-dunker Chris Wright. The Flyers really need to really improve their offensive execution (#250 from two; #231 from three) to realize their talent level, and 65% from the line (#298) won't help much either. Their defense saves them most of the time, but that offense must improve.
VW: I'm not huge on the Flyers myself; they were fifth in the country in "Luck" last year, and thus pretty overrated. They only lost Little and Thomas though, who weren't particularly good; they should improve, especially if Wright can return his ORtg to his '08 level (110).
Final rating: .840
Siena
RM: Hasbrouck is a key loss, but he didn't shoot it as well as Ubiles, Rossiter and Franklin, who all return. They're undersized as a group, but make up for it on defense by forcing turnovers (#48 in the nation last season) and not fouling much (#5).
VW: Even moreso than Hasbrouck, Rossiter was the key last year, shooting 63% from the field. It actually looks like Hasbrouck, their biggest name and (not coincidentally) highest usage guy, was quite overrated, with an ORtg of just 97.8. They could be pretty good on offense if Rossiter starts getting more touches.
Final rating: .835
Tulsa
RM: Jerome Jordan will be an NBA center, and Ben Uzoh is a good enough to set up the offense and keep defenses honest. If Memphis falters like many expect in CUSA, Tulsa will be there to pick up the crown.
VW: Jordan is really, really good, which makes it funny that the strength of their defense last year was actually guarding the three (27.8% 3P% against, lowest in the nation). That will inevitably regress, but the offense should be better with Jordan and Ben Uzoh back for their senior years. We actually have them tied with mighty Memphis, so that should be an interesting race in C-USA.
Final rating: .855
Northern Iowa
RM: UNI returns all five starters from a balanced team. 7'1 Jordan Eglseder only played 19 minutes/game last year and still put up 10/6; if he can stay on the floor another 5-10 mpg, he could average a double-double. Nobody else in the Valley has anyone quite like that.
VW: Both Eglseder and Lucas O'Rear (65% from two) were excellent inside last year; both also played less than half the time, so there is some room for improvement there if those two can stay on the court. If sophomore Johnny Moran can improve on last year's 33% from three, they could have quite an offense.
Final rating: .825
Creighton
RM: There's a lot returning here even though star Booker Woodfox is gone. Stat of the year: Kaleb Korver shot NINE times as many threes than twos last season (87 vs. 9). How do you only shoot nine twos in over 500 minutes of court time?
VW: Woodfox was really good (123.4 ORtg), and also high usage, so that production will be extremely difficult to replace. They are going to need Korver to keep up his efficient shooting (45% from three) though, as treys from him and Woodfox were the strength of their offense last year.
Final rating: .805
Utah St.
RM: Gary Wilkinson was really good, but he wasn't the whole team here. Tai Wesley and Jared Quayle are also very efficient players, and if this team could just get its defense marginally better, then they would be the prohibitive favorite (as it stands, they barely edged out Nevada in both the coaches and media polls).
VW: I'm not too worried about them being better than Nevada, since the Pack finished last year with a KenPom rating of just .685 and are only returning 67% of last season's minutes. As Randy mentioned, they should be able to survive the loss of Wilkinson, since they have a variety of weapons on offense. Wilkinson also doesn't appear to have been a big factor on D (beyond rebounding), which is the area that they really need to improve.
Final rating: .830
VCU
RM: Eric Maynor is gone, but the rebounding/shot-blocking machine known as Larry Sanders returns to become the focal point for new coach Shaka Smart. Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen could also add athletic depth not typically seen at the CAA level in the frontcourt, but I'm worried about their backcourt with Maynor leaving.
VW: Finally, we arrive at my hometown team (tickets to the 11/21 game vs. OU still available!). Losing Maynor obviously hurts, but they do return every other significant contributor from a team that almost took down UCLA in the first round last year. This is the year that Sanders needs to show some polish on the offensive end; he should really be able to hit more than 51% of his twos. Bradford Burgess had an impressive 58% eFG% as a freshman, so he should be able to fill some of the scoring void left by Maynor, but I can't see anyone duplicating the departed guard's ridiculous Assist Rate of 41%.
Final rating: .835
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