Here's the fifth installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression ratings for the Pac-10 are here. All team ratings from kenpom.com, recruiting info was taken from Scout.

1. California
2009 rating: .886
Returning 91% of minutes, 93% of points
Lost Jordan Wilkes (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Brandon Smith (5'11, 170; 3*), Markuri Sanders-Frison (6'8, 265; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .945, VW .930, JP .935, RM .935

VW: Pretty incredible that the Bears are the favorite in this conference, but they're legitimately good in a down year out west. My main concern is that, while you'd expect a team with all five starts coming back to progress, it'd tough to improve on 42.7% from three (first in the nation). That's bound to go down; Randle and Robertson shot 46% and 49% last year after hitting at 40% and 37% clips in their prior years, respectively.

Their hope for improvement is on the defensive end, where they were ranked just 101st a year ago. Cal had particular issues forcing turnovers; maybe they'll be more adept in that department this season with Seeley and Gutierrez getting a bit more time as sophomores.

ML: I went a bit overboard here. My rating suggests that I think they are only a smidgen worse than Purdue/UK, and I highly doubt that is the case. Cal's struggles forcing turnovers are not exactly a new development either. They were bad in this department long before Mike Montgomery arrived on campus. I do agree that they should be considered favorites to win the league, but that says more about the Pac 10 then it does about them.

Final rating: .928

2. Washington
2009 rating: .940
Returning 69% of minutes, 61% of points
Lost Justin Dentmon (senior), Jon Brockman (draft), Joe Wolfinger (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Abdul Gaddy (6'3, 170; 5*), Clarence Trent (6'7, 230; 3*), Charles Garcia (6'10, 220; 3*), C.J. Wilcox (6'5, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .900, VW .915, JP .910, RM .920

RM: The quartet of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, Quincy Pondexter and Venoy Overton could be the best backcourt in America. Unfortunately, the frontcourt could be the worst (ok, not really). But it's pretty bad. The loss of Jon Brockman will be felt if UW gets into games where they're walking the ball upcourt. The good news is that there's very little skilled size in the Pac-10 this year, so that weakness may not be exploited too frequently.

ML: The one area where they won't miss Jon Brockman is shot blocking. He was about as deficient as the 5 foot 8 Thomas in this regard last year, which is pretty amazing.
VW: They were third in the nation in OR% last year, and a lot of that was attributed to Brockman. They were only 84th on the defensive glass, and if you take the 6'11 senior out of the equation they really weren't very impressive at all. It's going to be key for Pondexter, Bryan-Amaning, and one or two of the freshman to fill that void; they'll still fall off in those two categories, but progression in other areas (particularly from Thomas in his sophomore season) will minimize the damage.

Final rating: .908

3. UCLA
2009 rating: .949
Returning 38% of minutes, 43% of points
Lost Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya (seniors), Jrue Holliday, Darren Collison (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Tyler Honeycutt (6'8, 190; 5*), Mike Moser (6'7, 185; 4*), Anthony Stover (6'10, 207; 4*), Brendan Lane (6'9, 200; 4*), Reeves Nelson (6'7, 215; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .905, VW .910, JP .905, RM .875

RM: It's really hard to project this UCLA team because the majority of its players haven't seen much action, yet we know from their recruiting rankings that they're all blue chippers. How will Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee, Drew Gordon and J'Mison Morgan adjust to playing heavy minutes in their sophomore seasons? Howland won't let this team fall too far, but they're going to take some licks this year.

VW: Yeah, this is a situation where last year's rating is nearly irrelevant. The defense will likely be alright, since they have plenty of athletes and their coach didn't change, but the thing about UCLA last year was that it wasn't the defense that carried them, it was their offense, which was the third most efficient unit in the nation. Dragovic is back, and he was quite good on offense last year, but who knows how much of that was because of all the talent around him. With all the sophomores and freshmen, UCLA has the chance to be pretty strong, especially once conference season rolls around, but there's really no way of knowing at this point.

Final rating: .907

4. Arizona St.
2009 rating: .941
Returning 66% of minutes, 50% of points
Lost James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph (draft), Kraidon Woods (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Trent Lockett (6'5, 185; 4*), Demetrius Walker (6'4, 185; 3*), Victor Rudd (6'8, 200; 3*), Ruslan Pateev (6'11, 235; 3*), Brandon Thompson (6'2, 185; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .850, VW .872, JP .886, RM .840

JP: They were 2nd in the country last year in eFG% (56.4), but losing Pendergraph's 66% is going to bring that back down to earth a little bit, and I heard that Harden guy could score occasionally as well. I also don't see a single player on this team getting a rebound next year beyond Boateng, which could be an issue.

VW: They shot a ton of threes last year, and without Pendergraph that tendency may become even more dramatic. That's fine if you're hitting them, but Glasser and Kuksiks both saw huge rises in their 3P% last year, so some regression there is almost inevitable. Fortunately Abbott's 29% from deep has nowhere to go but up. I'm guessing they'll score enough, but the defense and rebounding could get ugly.

ML: Without Harden the quality of those 3PAs figures to go down as well. He created a lot of open looks for the likes of Glasser and Kuksiks with his ability to get into the lane. They won't be as bad on the whole, but I won't be shocked if the Sun Devils resemble their borderline unwatchable 2007 outfit at times offensively.

Final rating: .868

5. Arizona
2009 rating: .871
Returning 52% of minutes, 43% of points
Lost Fendi Onobun (senior), Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger (draft), Zane Johnson (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Kyryl Natyazhko (6'10, 240; 4*), Solomon Hill (6'6, 215; 4*), Kevin Parrom (6'5, 185; 4*), Derrick Williams (6'7, 195; 4*), Lamont Jones (6'0, 175; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .855, VW .850, JP .865, RM .860

RM: Arizona's defense was appallingly bad for a team in the NCAA Tourney last year, but Sean Miller won't stand for that level of effort on his team -- his last two Xavier squads were top 35 defensive teams. On the other hand, who other than Nic Wise will score? When he's not handing games away, Jamelle Horne shows promise -- as does Kyle Fogg - but Miller is going to have to lean heavily on his recruits, most notably Solomon Hill, for production. The NCAA streak stands at 25, but an awful lot of things need to go well to get to 26.

VW: The defense should actually get better, with the loss of Budinger, the new coach, the recruits, and some regression balancing out Hill's departure. The offense will take a big step back from #7 in the country though, since Budinger was actually effective at that end of the floor. Overall, a small step back seems about right; I bet they still stumble into the tournament, deservedly or not.

Final rating: .858

6. Oregon St.
2009 rating: .677
Returning 83% of minutes, 88% of points
Lost Rickey Claitt (senior)
Incoming freshmen: Angus Brandt (6'9, 220; 4*), Roberto Nelson (6'3, 180; 4*), Joe Burton (6'7, 270; 3*), Jared Cunningham (6'3, 165; 3*), Rhys Murphy (6'7, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .820, VW .805, JP .812, RM .830

RM: Craig Robinson has done a nice job here, taking one of the worst teams I've ever seen two years ago and turning it into a competitive program overnight using his methodical (read: slow) style of play. Most everyone returns and they add a good recruiting class; I think they actually have a shot at the tournament this year.

VW: They should improve once again, but I'm not completely sold -- while they have a lot of volume coming back, it's not like we're they're returning a bunch of four- and five-star recruits. Claitt was also their most efficient player on offense, although he was very low-usage. Brandt and Burton are going to have to improve the interior defense, which was horrible last year.

Final rating: .802

7. Stanford
2009 rating: .860
Returning 45% of minutes, 41% of points
Lost Anthony Goods, Lawrence Hill, Kenny Brown, Mitch Johnson (seniors), Will Paul (suspended)
Incoming freshmen: Andy Brown (6'8, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .800, VW .785, JP .782, RM .770

JP: Owens and Fields, already very efficient offensive players, are going to need someone else to step up. Hopefully Jeremy Green, who shot 46% from three last year, can take this role and fill the shoes of Goods and Johnson, or else this team may be in trouble.

VW: What is going on with the recruiting in Palo Alto? They've lost a ton of talent (and Mitch Johnson) over the last couple years, and have replaced it with neither quantity nor quality. Aside from the Lopez brothers, there hasn't been much of interest in this program in the last five years, and it looks like that's going to continue for at least the near future.

Final rating: .786

8. Southern Cal
2009 rating: .908
Returning 40% of minutes, 37% of points
Lost Keith Wilkinson (senior), DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson (draft), Donte Smith (transfer), Daniel Hackett (Italy)
Incoming freshmen: None of note.
Initial ratings: ML .800, VW .775, JP .765, RM .800

JP: This team loses A LOT, including three of their top four scorers from last year. Lewis is going to have to be more efficient offensively in order for them to compete. They also lose their beast in the middle, Taj Gibson, so I expect their defense to suffer. One of the reasons they were so efficient defensively was their ability to block shots on the interior and contest shots, but that could be a problem this year as their only players above 6'7 are transfer Alex Stephenson, a rarely used forward (Vucecic) and a 215-pound seven footer from Europe who wasn't even rated by Scout (Davis Rozitis).

Final rating: .780

9. Washington St.
2009 rating: .882
Returning 46% of minutes, 39% of points
Lost Taylor Rochestie, Aron Baynes, Caleb Forrest, Daven Harmeling (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Xavier Thames (6'3, 177; 3*), Steven Bjornstad (6'10, 215; 3*), Brock Motum (6'9, 215; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .760, VW .750, JP .762, RM .765

RM: Ken Bone takes over at Wazzu. His Portland St. teams were more offensive-minded and uptempo than Tony Bennett's were, so it'll take some adjustment before the players get used to it. Klay Thompson is really the only significant piece remaining, so this looks to be a transition year in Pullman.

Final rating: .757

10. Oregon
2009 rating: .522
Returning 85% of minutes, 89% of points
Lost Churchill Odia (senior), Kamyron Brown (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Jamil Wilson (6'6, 200; 4*), E.J. Singler (6'6, 200; 3*), Jeremy Jacob (6'7, 210; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .770, VW .695, JP .682, RM .625

RM: Someone remind me how Ernie Kent still has a job? UO gave up buckets to anybody who wanted one last year, ranking in the bottom 15 in both 2-pt and 3-pt defense (Brown and Longwood should be proud). I think the four of us could team up with a blind cripple and still get 2 against this team. Bad coaching is still bad coaching and I don't expect much improvement in Eugene.

ML: This is a situation where I went WAY too far with my whole "unlucky on defense" theory . As pointed out above, the Ducks were beyond bad defensively last season, and if their history under Kent is any indication, they probably won't improve all that much even with some regression in their defensive 3P% and FT%.

Final rating: .690

I'll have a full recap next Monday when we're done with the Big East and our list of assorted teams*, but if it seems like the Pac-10 lost a ton of talent:

It's because they did. It's particularly ugly when you look at points, with the conference returning just seven of its top 20 scorers.

*- We have Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier, BYU, Utah, Butler, Dayton, Siena, and Tulsa thus far, and are taking suggestions on other deserving programs.