Here's the fourth installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC; no commentary from JP but he did manage to submit ratings. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression ratings for the SEC are here. All team ratings from kenpom.com, recruiting info was taken from Scout.
1. Kentucky
2009 rating: .857
Returning 62% of minutes, 57% of points
Lost Jodie Meeks (draft), Landon Slone, A.J. Stewart, Donald Williams (transfers)
Incoming freshmen: John Wall (6'4, 175; 5*), DeMarcus Cousins (6'10, 245; 5*), Daniel Orton (6'9, 260; 5*), Eric Bledsoe (6'0, 185; 4*), Jon Hood (6'6, 180; 4*), Darnell Dodson (6'8, 180, 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .949, VW .960, JP .950, RM .955
ML: I basically just took Purdue's rating and subtracted .001. Sophisticated I know, but I really had no clue here. If Meeks had come back I'd have had no problem labeling them as 1B to Kansas' 1A, but I think they are really going to struggle to score with him out of the mix.
VW: There's no way to know, really. Here's how the top recruiting classes, according to Scout.com, have fared each of the last four years:
UNC is the only team that completely lived up to the hype (that was the year they blew the lead to Georgetown in the E8), but all four teams ended up being pretty strong. I'd say UK has an average returning core compared to those four -- inferior to UCLA and UNC -- which is how I got to my rating of .960, just below the average of the teams above (.962). There's certainly an unusually large amount of uncertainty around whatever number you give them, especially considering how hyped they are coming into the season.
Final rating: .955
2. Tennessee
2009 rating: .889
Returning 99.8% of minutes, 99.7% of points
Lost Philip Jurick, Daniel West (transfers)
Incoming freshmen: Kenny Hall (6'9, 215; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .960, VW .945, JP .967, RM .930
RM: Last year their defense was just 73rd in the country, and adding a year of experience to a terrible defensive team won't change bad habits. The point position also remains a serious problem, as Bobby Maze would make for a nice C-USA lead guard, but regularly gets outclassed in the SEC. What kind of team is Pearl trying to build in Knoxville -- every one of his players is a 6'7 athlete with questionable shot selection?
ML: This is Pearl's best team yet, and I do think there is a pretty good chance they'll win the league, but their upside clearly isn't as high as Kentucky's. I echo Randy's concerns about the defense. What exactly is the plan? There is one, right?
VW: I had about the same thought process when looking at the Vols. It's great that everybody is coming back, but they've had a top 50 defense just once in the last six years, and that '08 team was the beneficiary of some horrid 3P shooting by their opponents. You'd think they could get back to turning people over at a decent clip like they did a couple years ago, but we'll have to wait and see.
The other thing limiting their ceiling is that they just can't shoot from the outside -- 286th in the nation last season, at 31.5%. Smith should improve (he was decent in '08), but Chism really needs to focus on his post game. These guys are the anti-Kentucky: you know they're going to be very good, but it's hard to see them being great.
Final rating: .953
3. Mississippi St.
2009 rating: .818
Returning 96% of minutes, 97% of points
Lost Brian Johnson (senior), Jacquiese Holcombe (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Renardo Sidney (6'11, 255; 5*), John Riek (7'2, 240; 4*), Shaunessy Smith (6'5, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .910, VW .935, JP .929, RM .875
RM: If Sidney is available to play (and I'm assuming he will not be), MSU is the odds-on favorite to win the SEC West. Jarvis Varnado is the key to their defense, and I'm interested to see what the long-awaited 7'2 project John Riek can add to that frontline. If Sidney can miraculously become eligible, that frontline could be the best in CBB since 2006 UConn (R. Gay, J. Boone, H. Armstrong).
ML: Even without Sidney, or any of the recruits for that matter, they project as a Top 20 team, and yet I doubt you'll hear much about them before March. Varnado should hire a publicist.
VW I was assuming Sidney would play when I put these together, so I'm going to have to calm down a bit with that lofty rating. They'll be tough inside regardless of how that situation shakes out, but where will the production come from in the backcourt? They're going to need former four-star recruit Dee Bost to improve on his 37% shooting from two, and Barry Stewart to finally fulfill the promise he showed as a freshman.
Final rating: .905
4. Vanderbilt
2009 rating: .785
Returning 92% of minutes, 93% of points
Lost George Drake
Incoming freshmen: John Jenkins (6'4, 180; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .905, VW .870, JP .890, RM .880
RM: Most everyone of consequence returns, and there are seeds of a solid defensive team here (#12 defensively in the paint). As always with Vandy, their best teams are bloody murder at Memorial Gymnasium, so it'll be key for the Commodores to set the tone early there in games against Missouri and Florida.
ML: Their interior defense made a pretty large leap last year, and from the looks of it this can be attributed to the addition of Ezeli & Goulbourne coupled with the continuing development of Ogilvy. The Commies look like a solid 5-7 seed in the tourney to me.
VW: Their perimeter D really held them back in '09; they've never been great in that area, but last year was an obvious outlier, so I'd except them to regress back to around the national average there. Other than that, they should have some pretty natural progression for a team that was only average last year but has all of their key cogs coming back.
Final rating: .890
5. Florida
2009 rating: .867
Returning of 66% minutes, 63% of points
Lost Walter Hodge (senior), Nick Calathes (draft), Allan Chaney (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Kenny Boynton (6'2, 185; 5*), Erik Murphy (6'9, 210; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .875, VW .860, JP .867, RM .870
ML: I've got them 4th; not in the conference, but in the Eastern division. UF is a football school once more.
VW: The offense will be decent enough; I was surprised to see that Erving Walker shot 42% from three last year, and Tyus should continue to improve inside. Throw Werner and Parsons in there, and add Boynton to the mix, and they may not even miss Calathes too much on that end.
Defensively though...yikes. Hodge and Calathes forced a decent number of turnovers last year, but they're gone, and they were pretty bad at just about everything else. Actually, they were strong in one area: UF's opponents shot 62.5% from the line, the lowest mark in the country. Tyus and Kenny Kadji are going to have to block a ton of shots to make up for the inevitable regression in those two areas.
Final rating: .868
6. South Carolina
2009 rating: .805
Returning 78% of minutes, 78% of points
Lost Zam Fredrick, Branden Conrad (seniors), Mitchell Carter (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Lakeem Jackson (6'5, 200; 4*), Ramon Galloway (6'2, 170; 3*), Steve Spinella (6'5, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .860, VW .855, JP .860, RM .865
RM: Darrin Horn has a really nice team returning, led by the mercurial Devan Downey. At first glance, losing Zam Fredrick might appear troublesome, but all he really did was take a lot of bad shots and gum up the offense (41% on twos).
VW: Yeah, Fredrick could shoot a bit from outside, but he should be replaceable -- he didn't exactly fill up the stat sheet on D or on the boards either. Baniulis has lit it up from three for a couple years now; I suppose he doesn't provide a whole lot beyond that, but it'd be nice to see him get a few more minutes on a team that had some trouble scoring last year.
Final rating: .858
7. Auburn
2009 rating: .844
Returning 60% of minutes, 62% of points
Lost Korvotney Barber, Rasheem Barrett, Quantez Robertson (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Andre Malone (6'4, 200; 3*), Earnest Ross (6'4, 185; 3*), Ken Gabriel (6'7, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .790, VW .815, JP .795, RM .800
ML: Rightly or wrongly, I've consistently rated teams whose defensive stats were likely aided by luck slightly lower than the regression numbers. I know everyone else is excited as I am to see how this actually turns out.
VW: Absolutely looking forward to it. In this case it was an opponents' FT% of 66.1%, almost 3% below the national average. That was a small part of a strong defense, which should continue to be respectable, although they're going to miss Barber's excellent work on the glass. They're going to struggle to score though -- they weren't every good on that end last year, and are losing two high usage guys in Barber and Barrett. The SEC conveniently splits itself up into two tiers this year, and with the Tigers we've descended into the lower one.
Final rating: .800
8. Arkansas
2009 rating: .596
Returning 81% of minutes, 85% of points
Lost Andre Clark and Brandon Moore (transfers), Jason Henry (suspended, no longer on team), Montrell McDonald (quit), Marcus Monk (ineligible)
Incoming freshmen:Marshawn Powell (6'8, 225; 4*), Anthony Borden (6'10, 205; 3*), Glenn Bryant (6'6, 190; 3*), Jemal Farmer (6'5, 215; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .790, VW .750, JP .782, RM .800
ML: The Hogs were legitimately terrible last year, which is only surprising because I don't recall wagering on them very often, and I was playing like 20 games a night. Even though it likely won't be in HD, I'm excited to see what Rotnei Clarke is all about. I hadn't even heard of him before this exercise, but his efficiency stats are rather impressive.
VW: Not sure why I came in so low here, beyond the fact that they were easily the second worst team in a weak conference last year. They lose a lot of bodies, but not much production. Clarke looks like he could be a good one, and Michael Washington shot 59% from two last year. I'm still not sure about their defense though.
Final rating: .782
9. Louisiana St.
2009 rating: .866
Returning 42% of minutes, 42% of points
Lost Chris Johnson, Terry Martin, Garrett Temple, Quintin Thornton (seniors), Marcus Thornton (draft), Delwan Graham (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Aaron Dotson (6'4, 194; 3*), Eddie Ludwig (6'7, 195; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .770, VW .790, JP .790, RM .810
RM: Even though they lose a ton of production, the returning duo of Tasmin Mitchell and Bo Spencer should keep LSU competitive. The key for the Tigers will be how well last year's corps of freshman can step into roles vacated by all the departures.
VW: Mitchell and Spencer are nice pieces, but that only gets you 40% of the way there. They still need to draw three more starters from a pool of guys who played less than 20% of the time (and weren't very effective when they were in), and a couple three-star recruits. Seems like a pretty tall task.
Final rating: .778
10. Alabama
2009 rating: .720
Returning 69% of minutes, 70% of points
Lost Alonzo Gee, Ronald Steele, Brandon Hollinger (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Ben Eblen (6'0, 185; 3*), Shawn Kemp (6'8, 200; 3*), Chris Hines (6'7, 225; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .780, VW .760, JP .780, RM .820
RM: Ronald Steele wasn't healthy for the last 2+ years, so Alabama really only loses Alonzo Gee from a team that showed marked improvement at the end of last season. JaMychal Greene is poised to explode onto the national scene as a sophomore, with his rebounding, defense and soft scoring touch.
VW: I like Greene, and Torrance to an extent, but I don't know that there's a lot else to get excited about here. Hillman really brings very little to the table -- he can't shoot, doesn't rebound, and turns it over too much -- and I'd imagine he'll be handling the ball even more now that Steele is completely out of the picture.
Final rating: .777
11. Mississippi
2009 rating: .713
Returning 72% of minutes, 66% of points
Lost Malcolm White, David Huertas (Puerto Rico)
Incoming freshmen: Reggie Buckner (6'9, 205; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .780, VW .775, JP .766, RM .800
RM: Before losing David Huertas to the pros in Puerto Rico, Ole Miss was another team that looked to make a significant leap in the SEC West this season. Still, a cast of youngsters led by senior Chris Warren and reigning FrOY Terrico White will make the Rebels formidable. The SEC West is insane with just how close these six teams match up against each other - can we have six 8-8 records this year?
Final rating: .774
12. Georgia
2009 rating: .403
Returning 61% of minutes, 62% of points
Lost Terrance Woodbury, Corey Butler (seniors), Troy Brewer, Zac Swansey (tranfers)
Incoming freshmen: None of note.
Initial ratings: ML .560, VW .630, JP .595, RM .650
VW: There's some hope because they were so young last year (258th in the nation in experience), but that offense was pretty awful across the board. It's not like they're losing a ton with Woodbury though, who had an ORtg of just 93.6. If It looks like Thompkins could end up being a decent piece -- he was extremely high usage for a freshman.
Final rating: .592
Final SEC ratings:
That puts our current national top five at Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Purdue, and Duke. The season somehow tips off in three weeks, so hopefully we'll be able to finish these up and recap everything before November 9.
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