I'm basically going to go through as many of these as I have time for each night until I finish. Continuing down the WSEX list:
Oklahoma
WSEX: 5/7
Best odds: 30:1 (Carib)
Record: 16-1 (2-0)
Pomeroy rank: 16
Griffin is awesome, and Warren is no slouch himself, but I think it's been proven over the last couple years that having the best player in the country doesn't make you a national title contender; in fact, it doesn't even mean you'll reach the second weekend of the tournament. Their perimeter defense has held them back thus far; 188th in the country in turnover %, and 173rd in defending the three. They probably end up with a two seed, since I think they're the best team in the Big 12, but there's not enough here to justify those odds.
Gonzaga
WSEX: 5/7
Best odds: 60:1 (Bodog)
Record: 10-4 (1-0)
Pomeroy rank: 7
Despite the slow start, I still think the Zags are very good; they just have so much talent, and Pomeroy's rankings haven't lost faith. They should breeze through their WCC schedule -- the only game they have over an 11% chance of losing is @St. Mary's -- and get another name win when they host Memphis in February. But I think they're going to have a very hard time getting a top 3 seed. They're currently 23rd in the RPI, and I'd expect that to drop as they play teams like Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine.
They should make their way back into the Top 25 in the opinion polls, although I doubt that will help too much. Gonzaga could pose a scary matchup for a #1 seed in the third round, but it's too tough of a path to take them at this price, even if their odds have been inflated by losing four of five.
Georgetown
WSEX: 5/7
Best odds: 30:1 (Carib)
Record: 12-4 (3-2)
Pomeroy rank: 8
Nice win tonight against a vastly overrated Syracuse team. But even in that one, they were outrebounded 32-25 by the Orange, who are not exactly known for their work on the boards. The Hoyas are right there in that second tier of Big East teams behind Pitt, but I can't imagine there is much of a precedent for the 302nd best defensive rebounding team in the country making a serious run at the title.
Notre Dame
WSEX: 4/6
Best odds: 40:1 (Carib)
Record: 12-4 (3-2)
Pomeroy rank: 43
An incomplete list of teams ahead of the Irish in Defensive Efficiency:
Savannah St.
Bethune Cookman
Florida Gulf Coast
Rutgers
Yale
Stony Brook
Detroit
Iona
I would go on, but I don't want to force everyone to scroll through 159 names. I think you get the idea. Harangody and McAlarney are very impressive offensively, but this is just not an elite all-around team.
Memphis
WSEX: 4/6
Best odds: 50:1 (Carib)
Record: 13-3 (3-0)
Pomeroy rank: 11
The Tigers had three marquee non-conference games, against Xavier, Georgetown, and Syracuse. They lost all three. This is shooting fish in a barrell, but compare that to last year, when they beat Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Georgetown, and Arizona over the season's first two months. That's a long way of saying I think they're still living off last year's accomplishments, and Derrick Rose isn't walking through that door.
Florida
WSEX: 4/6
Best odds: 100:1 (Bodog)
Record: 15-2 (2-0)
Pomeroy rank: 42
There is just nothing here. They beat Washington by two in Kansas City; that is impressive, I guess. Their defense is better than Notre Dame's, but that's about the best thing you can say about it. Racking up wins against the 283rd non-conference schedule does not make you a Final Four contender. They might end up with a decent seed, just because the SEC is such garbage, but even at these long odds they're not at all interesting.
Tennessee
WSEX: 4/6
Best odds: 75:1 (Carib)
Record: 10-5 (1-1)
Pomeroy rank: 37
The first half of the Tennessee-Gonzaga game last Wednesday was one of the ugliest halves of basketball I can remember. That's not really relevant, but I figured I should include it somewhere. The Vols are another name team that doesn't play defense; they're very good on the boards, but that's the only thing keeping them in the top 100 in the country.
Original Story:
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/01/college...
