Marlins at Cubs Game Thread

Time and place: 7:05 pm, Wrigley Field TV: FS-F+, WCIU, mlb.tv Gameday, Box ACCUSCORE Projection: 48% chance Cubs win CubsF/X Preview Berselius's Preview ACB Preview 2009 W-L: 13-8 2009 RS/RA: 104/103 2009 Pythag W: 10.3 Playoff Odds: 8.4% 2009 Avg Prj W: 73 2008 Actual W: 84 2008 PythagenPat W: 81 Avg Prj RS: 735 2008 RS: 770 Avg RA: 813 2008 RA: 767 Division %: 1% Wild Card %: 1% Playoff %: 2% High W: 76 (chone) Low W: 66 (zips) Gap: 10 Avg Div Plc: 4 Starting Pitcher: Chris Volstad: 2-0, 2.70 Volstad vs. Cubs hitters AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Soriano 6 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 Lee 5 2 0 1 1 .400 .500 .600 Ramirez 5 2 1 1 0 .400 .500 1.000 Fontenot 5 3 0 1 0 .600 .667 .800 Soto 5 1 0 1 0 .200 .333 .400 Platoon Splits PA HR SO/BB OPS vs RHB 220 3 1.79 .647 vs LHB 241 3 1.29 .636 Balls in Play GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 1.77 17.0 53.1 29.9 13.4 6.2 Pitch Type Plate Discipline THT Stats Graphs PitchF/X Cubs F/X WPA Play Log LINEUP not available yet 2009 W-L: 10-10 2009 RS/RA: 95/96 2009 Pythag W: 9.5 Playoff Odds: 60.8% 2009 Avg Prj W: 91 2008 Actual W: 97 2008 PythagenPat W: 99 Avg Prj RS: 815 2008 RS: 855 Avg RA: 713 2008 RA: 671 Division %: 66% Wild Card %: 9% Playoff %: 75% High W: 95 (zips) Low W: 88 (chone) Gap: 7 Avg Div Plc: 1 Starting Pitcher: Sean Marshall: 0-1, 4.50 Marshall vs. Marlins hitters AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Uggla 13 5 0 0 2 .385 .385 .615 Ramirez 10 4 1 2 1 .400 .538 .800 Helms 6 2 0 0 2 .333 .333 .667 Paulino 4 1 0 2 0 .250 .500 .500 Ross 4 1 0 0 2 .250 .250 .250 Platoon Splits PA HR SO/BB OPS vs RHB 1079 33 1.76 0.766 vs LHB 262 10 1.68 0.784 Balls in Play GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 1.23 17.1 45.7 37.3 10.9 12.0 Pitch Type Plate Discipline THT Stats Graphs PitchF/X Cubs F/X WPA Play Log LINEUP not available yet Here's the pitching preview for tonight's game that was included in the series preview. Thursday, 7:05 pm @ Wrigley Field -- Chris Volstad, RHP (2-0, 2.70) vs. Sean Marshall, LHP (0-1, 4.50) Chris Volstad links: ESPN • THT • Fangraphs • B-ref Volstad is a groundball pitcher (1.77 GB/FB career). He's struckout 8.49 men per 9 innings so far this year, but as a rookie last year he only struckout 5.55 per 9. In th eminors he's been around 5.25 to 6.5 per 9. He's had control issues this yar as he's walked 4.63 per 9 and he walked 3.84 per 9 as a rookie in 2008. His minoor league walk rate was around 2.5 per 9. His BABIP is only .215 so he's gotten a little lucky so far and his FIP (4.66) and his x-FIP (4.44) reflect that. Part of his luck has been a 13.3% line drive rate, which should be around 20% or thereabouts. He has, however, given up his fair share of home runs this year (3) and he's not likely to continue to allow them at the rate he has so far. He's made 4 starts this year. 2 of them have been against the Nationals and the other 2 have been against the Braves and Phillies. His best outing of the year came in his 2nd start on April 14th at Atlanta. He threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits, walked 2, struckout 4 and allowed only 1 earned run. His worst start came the next start against the Nationals when he didn't make it through 5 innings and allowed 6 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts and 3 earned runs. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start so far this year. He's thrown a first-pitch strike only 49% of the time (league average is 57.7%). He's a 3-pitch pitcher: fastball, curve, change. His fastball sits at about 91 mph and he has thrown it 64.1% of the time. He's thrown a curve 22% of the time and a changeup 14% of the time. Fangraphs pitchf/x page for Volstad has him also throwing a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball and an occasional slider (0.3% of his pitchers in 2009). Below is Volstad's pitch frequency chart from Fangraphs. No Cub has faced Volstad more than 6 times. Volstad's FIP Projections from fangraphs CHONE: 4.63 Marcel: 3.92 ZiPS 4.60 Sean Marshall links: ESPN • THT • Fangraphs • B-ref Marshall has also been a groundball pitcher in his career (1.23 GB/FB), but it's just 0.86 so far in 2009. That's likely just a sample size issue. Marshall has struckout 6.75 batters per 9 innings this year and struck out 7.99 last year. Prior to 2008, Marshall had trouble striking batters out at the big league level, but was around 7-8 in the minor leagues. He's had really good control in the minor leagues, but just so-so control at the big league level. He's walked 3 per 9 in 2009 and he walked 3.17 per 9 in 2008. His career total is 3.55, but that's largely because of his rookie season in 2006 in which he walked over 4 per 9. Marshall's BABIP has been .326 so far this year so he's been a bit unlucky. His FIP is 3.53 and his x-FIP is 4.33. That's the same x-FIP as 2008 as well. Marshall has made only 4 appearances in 2009. The first two were relief appearances totaling 1 inning and 1 walk allowed. No hits, no runs, and no strikeouts. After a few early off days that allowed the Cubs to skip their 5th starter, Marshall made his first start on April 16th at home against St. Louis. It was an OK start. He threw 5 innings, allowed 7 hits and 3 runs while walking 2 and striking 4 Cardinals out. His next start didn't come until 9 days later in St. Louis and he was better that time around as he picked up a quality start. He threw 6 innings, allowed 6 hits, 3 runs while walking 1 and striking out 5. He throws 5 pitches: fastball, slider, cutter, curve ball and a change. He has thrown the fastball only 30.3% of his pitches this year. His slider has gone from 20.1% in 2007 to 12.0% in 2008 to 1.0% in 2009. He's throwing more cutters in place of those as they have gone from 7.5% in 2007 to 19.8% in 2008 to 33.3% in 2009. He's also throwing more curveballs so far this year (up to 33.3%) and his changeups have declined to 2%. I don't know if this is just a sample size issue or not. It probably is, but it's worth watching. His fastball velocity is 87.5 mph. Unlike Volstad, Marshall has gotten ahead of hitters this year. He's thrown a first-pitch strike 60.4% of the time (league average 57.7%). He's also getting more out of zone swings than the average hitter. Marshall's pitch frequency chart from his fangraphs pitchf/x page is below (click on the link to go to the page). Only Uggla and Ramirez have faced Marshall more than 6 times and the two of them are a combined 9-23 with 4 doubles and a home run. FIP Projections CHONE: 4.53 Marcel: 4.52 ZiPS 4.70 Bill James: 4.63