Regional Previews: South (2009)

Possibly the most intriguing region:

R1 line: Duh. Pyth: KenPom rating. Adj.: Adjustment to Pyth based on recent lines. R2 HCA: Just UNC in Greensboro here. R2: % of the time team advances to second round; weighted 75% the R1 line, 25% unadjusted Pomeroy S16: % of the time team advances to Sweet 16; mostly just adjusted Pomeroy, with occasional HCA consideration E8, F4, NC, CH: % of time team advances to next four rounds. NC Odds, Site, F4 Odds, Site: best NC and F4 odds for each team, and the site at which they can be found Then I just listed the team name again for convenience because the table is so damn long.
Greensboro (Thurs/Sat): North Carolina, Radford, Louisiana St., Butler

Like with UCLA, Carolina's expected conference tournament run never came to fruition.  They did have an excuse, but it looks like their star PG might not play on Thursday, either.
At anywhere between +180 (come on, Carib) and +350 to win it all, UNC is still easily the #1 contender at every single sportsbook.  They're also a very popular pick among both "experts" and the general public.
While my simulation doesn't hate TH and Co., it's not nearly as high on them as most.  Their Pomeroy rating is nothing special; second in the nation, yes, but also one bad game away from seventh.  And while the linesmakers were sticking with them for awhile, their confidence looks to be dwindling:

The last two games have been without Lawson, but even prior to that their lines for the most recent five games were only about two points above their Pomeroy rating, the moving average's lowest point since early December. It's as though the oddsmakers have been waiting and waiting for UNC to turn it on and leave everyone else in the dust, and that just hasn't happened. 
Maybe that starts this weekend, and culminates with cutting down the nets in Detroit followed by a mass exodus to the NBA. Maybe they would've breezed through the conference tournament if Lawson had played, like '07 UF did.  Maybe everyone will look back and talk about how obvious it was; top ranked in the preseason, a #1 seed in the tournament, cutting down the nets in Detroit.  But that's a lot of maybes and would haves; the most likely result seems like this whole thing ends with disappointment, just as it has in each of the last two years.

Portland (Thurs/Sat): Gonzaga, Akron, Illinois, Western Kentucky

Three halves of basketball are of concern from a Gonzaga standpoint; both in their loss to Memphis, and the first half of their home win against St. Mary's, when they were down six points before Mills got hurt.  The Memphis game doesn't look that bad anymore, although losing by 18 at home isn't ever good.  And while Mills may not have been full strength, they did avenge the weak half against Mary's by looking very impressive in blowing them out by 25 in Vegas.
All the talking heads keep mentioning how soft the Zags are, which, despite Austin Daye's appearance, doesn't really concern me.  The main reason they're considered "soft" is that they've lost in the first round each of the last two years.  Which did happen, but it also came at the hands of teams that were superior to them.  Meanwhile, this Gonzaga team looks like the best one yet; they're the only team in the nation in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, coming in at sixth and ninth, respectively.
Miami (Fri/Sun): Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, Arizona St., Temple

This is an interesting pod, since the winner will likely be favored in the Sweet 16.  I really like ASU, but they have a bad first round draw, facing the best #5 in the tournament.  This is another one where Sun Devils would probably beat Syracuse in the second round, but they're just so much less likely to get there; Temple is tons better than SFA.  I'll probably go against the numbers and pick ASU to come out of here anyway; as you'll be able to see in the ESPN group, a bracket that blindly goes by these percentages is exceedingly boring, and probably not very likely to win.

Kansas City (Thurs/Sat): Oklahoma, Morgan St., Clemson, Michigan
The Sooners are really relying on the reputation of their star at this point; they did deserve a #2 (just barely), but they're certainly not worthy of the praise they've been receiving this week; if Oklahoma is on your list of six teams that can win it all, you're doing it wrong.  Texas in '07 and Kansas St. last year had really good players, too; how did that work out for them?  I doubt I'll pick Clemson, since this region is already enough of a mess, but it wouldn't be surprising at all if Purnell's bunch is still playing next week.

Second weekend: Memphis (next Thurs/Sat)

The gap between the Tar Heels and Bulldogs is just so much smaller than generally perceived, I'm not going to be able to help myself.  Correctly picking UNC isn't going to win your pool, but nailing Gonzaga advancing to Detroit would go a long way in doing so.
South Regional Pick: Gonzaga.