Sweet 16 Previews: Midwest (2009)

Pom.: Current Pomeroy rating.
Adj.: Adjustment to Pomeroy rating (in points), based on recent lines.
Line: Spread for team's Sweet 16 game (from Pinnacle).
E8: Odds of winning their next game; weighted 75% the line, 25% unadjusted Pomeroy
F4 (Current): Current odds of advancing to the Final Four.
F4 (Previous): Odds of advancing to the Final Four as of a week ago.
Diff: Subtraction.
F4 Odds, Site, ROI: best F4 odds for each team, where they can be found, and how profitable they are on average according to the simulation. (I never got around to subtracting one, so the ROI is really just an index; under one is bad.)
Then I repeated this entire exercise, except for the national title odds instead of the F4 odds.

The Arizona-Louisville game has the potential to be more interesting than one may expect.  As Mr. Pomeroy himself pointed out on Tuesday, Arizona allows their opponents to shoot a ton of threes (scroll down).  On the year, teams have shot around the national average from deep against them (34.5%); the reason the Wildcats are still playing is that Utah shot just 25% on their 32 threes, and Cleveland St. was a miserable 3/23.
They'll be going against a Louisville team that is pretty fond of the three itself (67th in 3PA/FGA).  They've improved their accuracy as the year has gone by, although Clark and Sosa are still hovering around 30%.  After being right at that number in his first three years, Terrence Williams has vastly improved this season, all the way up to 38%.  When the Cardinals have the ball, this game could look a lot like ASU's offensive possessions on Sunday; Louisville better hope they see significantly better results (and to be fair, the Cardinals' D is vastly better than that of the Sun Devils).
Dayton's offense isn't anything to write home about, but even so Kansas' performance last weekend was rather outrageous.  They held the Flyers to an absurd 22% from the field, and just 43 points in a game that was played at a pretty brisk pace (72 possessions).  As with Memphis' offense, this single game caused a significant increase in the Jayhawks D's Pomeroy rating, as it jumped from 13th to 7th.
I suppose it makes sense, being a #2 vs. a #3, but the Kansas-Michigan St. line is cause for concern regarding their futures odds, as Pomeroy actually has the Jayhawks winning by 1.3.  And it's not like the Spartans are the particularly public side, as Kansas actually looks to be receiving the majority of the public support.  That worry is factored into the simulation, but possibly not enough.  The KU NC market at Matchbook settling at +3800/-4000 also doesn't inspire much optimism.
Michigan State is a fairly strange team.  They don't do much well other than rebounding, but, as you can probably imagine since they're favored in the Sweet 16, they can really rebound.  Even in their four Big 10 losses, it hasn't been because they were beaten at their own game:

With a victory in rebounding margin not a realistic option, teams have found different ways to beat the Spartans. Despite attempting 24 fewer shots from the field, Ohio State won by 12 by dominating from three (9/16 for tOSU vs. 3/12 for Sparty) and having a 10-point edge at the line. Purdue blew them out in West Lafayette by turning MSU over 22 times and holding them to 34% from two. Penn St. simply didn't miss from the floor, shooting 56% including 10/20 from three. And finally, Northwestern beat them by seven while getting outrebounded by 20 by turning the Spartans over 18 times and holding them to 5/21 from deep.

Kansas had a negative turnover margin on the year, but they do have Cole Aldrich.  If he can effectively challenge Michigan St.'s first opportunities inside, and limit their second chances, the Jayhawks have a good chance to pull this one out.  Not that it'd be a monumental upset or anything.