Patriots: Mock Draft Roundup

It seems everybody and their mother has a mock draft these days. Trying to analyze the draft and predict what is going to happen might be the most useless thing in sports writing. Except, of course, analyzing everyone else's analysis of the draft. Give every fool his errand, I guess. With that soaring introduction, I bring you the Mock Draft roundup: a final look at what the different football sites around the web are saying about the Patriots and their #23 pick in the first round. Some of these are older than others and I'll provide that context where I can find it because the book on some guys, simply in terms of the measurables that we know, let alone all the stuff teams have found out that we haven't, has changed dramatically (NSFHE -- Not Safe For Human Eyes) in the last few weeks. On we go: ESPN Todd McShay (as of 4-16-09): Clay Matthews, LB, USC Mel Kiper (as of 4-9-09): Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut McShay seems to be going with the standard line tha the Patriots will go after a linebacker and Matthews is certainly a popular choice here. There are more athletic guys in the draft, to be sure, but Matthews seems a good fit for the Patriots. Donald Brown is a puzzling pick here, given that the Patriots already are five deep (!) at the position and certainly won't carry six (let alone five) RB on the roster -- meaning they'd have to give up the ghost on Fred Taylor (just signed), Lawrence Maroney (21st pick just three years ago), Sammy Morris (very productive in limited time), Kevin Faulk (essentiall on 3rd down), and Green-Ellis (the likely victim, but the team seems to like him). Ellis might be the victim here, but throwing another first rounder to the position with such glaring need at others seems unlikely for Belichick, especially for a guy ESPN's own scouting service describes as "lacking elite size and breakaway speed." Oddly enough, though, Kiper has the Pats passing on Matthews in the second round, too, which seems ridiculous given the value he'd have there. FoxSports' Scout.com (as of 4-20-09) Adam Caplan: Robert Ayers, DE-OLB, Tennessee Caplan also says the Patriots might look to Darius Butler or Eben Britton, but both of those guys could slip out of the first round, too. Ayers would be a huge value here as he's in that group of highly valued DE-OLB pass rushers who can anchor a 3-4 defense. With so many teams going to the 3-4, as I wrote about a little while ago, he's a guy who is going to earn a hell of a payday after the draft. I doubt he'll be there for the Patriots to pick, but it would certainly be great if they did. Walter Football.com Mock as of 4/20/09 (automatically updates when they change it): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC Not sure if this is just Walter's pick or a composite by their staff but they have the Patriots also going the USC linebacker route here. They're much higher on Rey than I am and have him down here only because of the torn hamstring. Having messed my hamstring up in the past six months (not even torn, like his) I can tell you that the effects don't go away quickly and, even when you're healthy, there's a mental aspect to the injury because it's so simple to reinjure it. He's got far better treatment than me, but hamstring injuries have derailed plenty of athletes before. The Patriots are old at linebacker and have been pretty badly bitten by the injury bug the last few seasons, having a rookie LB they'll want to work in right away coming into camp with a torn hamstring is not a good start. Patriots Daily Scott Benson (as of 3/20/09): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia Older pick from Benson here because it's a part of a Hands Mock Across America, but I don't know if his opinion has changed at all in the last month since a lot of guys have moved up and down the board (and it's dependent on what other blogs pick, as well). I'm higher on this pick than on Donald Brown from Kiper, above. I'm down on it in terms of depth but if the Patriots are going to go with a running back I'd prefer a guy like Knowshon who has the potential to be explosive. His combine numbers were hardly the stuff of legends (4.62 40 yard, 25.5 vertical, 9'7'' broad jump, 4.27 in the 20 yard shuttle -- all middle of the road at best and dead last in the vertical) but I don't trust those numbers. Watch him on film and it's obvious that this is not a guy who has a shorter vertical jump than I do: If you're going to go RB in the first round when you have that much depth, it's because you're gambling on a guy with a ton of upside. Brown has that upside, too, just less of it, in my opinion. CBS Sports' NFLDraftScout.com Composite of their experts' picks, date of last update next to name. Rob Rang (4/20): Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut Michael Lombardi (4/17): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois Chad Reuter (4/13): Brian Cushing, LB, USC Pete Prisco (4/18):Brian Cushing, LB, USC Clarke Judge (4/17): Clay Matthews, LB, USC Clearly the USC LB thing has caught on at CBS (and I agree, I like either Matthews or Cushing here) so thumbs up on the picks from Reuter, Prisco, and Judge. Who knows if the USC linebackers can do anything at the next level, but I think they're a safer bet than most. I like the Vontae Davis and Butler picks as well but I think similar value can be had in the second round but at 23, it's hardly a wasted pick unless either guy busts entirely. That Davis' name was cleared earlier on Monday (according to ProFootballTalk.com) certainly makes that an easier pill to swallow, too. All good picks that fill desperate needs for the Patriots as that linebacking corps looks awfully slow and, even with the additions of Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, it's going to need some athletic help in the defensive backfield. My only problem with the Butler pick would be that in the same mock draft Rob Rang has Aaron Maybin still on the board and I don't think you pass up a guy like that for Butler. (Watch this sentence appear to bite me in the behind in three years when Maybin's a washout and Butler is a stud, but still). ProFootballTalk.com The mysterious Mr. X's pick (as of 4/20): Brian Orakpo, LB, Texas Mr. "X" is PFT's anonymous expert here who, according to them, has talked with several scouts around the league about where they think players will land and which teams are actually big on players and which are just pretending to be interested to throw up a smokescreen. The Orakpo pick is interesting, then, because he's considered a high first-round pick, with every other mock draft I've seen having him fall no lower than 15th, to Houston and most at just 5th, to Cleveland. Depending on how the first 10-12 picks turn out, he might fall this far, but there would have to be a compelling reason for teams to pass on this kind of talent for mid-first round money. Also falling heavily in this mock is Aaron Maybin, the athletic freak (anyone who adds 20ish pounds of body weight in 12 weeks and is 4-5% body fat, I want on my football team) The Sporting News Their expert's pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia The Sporting News also has Moreno going to the Patriots here (and Orakpo going as high as 3, to KC) with the Patriots going LB in the second round (with Utah's Paul Kruger, Matthews falls all the way to Seattle at 37, here). From what I can tell this is a pretty early mock, but I'm not sure as they don't say when it was last updated. Benson at Patriots Daily already made this pick and, surprise, my opinion hasn't changed in the last 300 words. Good value pick, high upside, but there are probably more pressing needs. NFLDraftSite.com Pick updated as of 4/19: Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois I like the pick here. English has been soaring on draft boards lately, according to a number of sites. Check out the site though, it mock drafts for a whole seven rounds, which is a good way to waste twenty minutes trying to find out which of the fourth-round picks are going to be gems like in recent years and which you'll never hear again. (For the record, The Sporting News above also does all seven rounds, but I'm not sure when theirs was last updated.) Not to put everyone else's opinion out without my own, I'll say that I think there is considerable depth at LB in the first round, so it'll depend greatly on what is available. I think they need to try to get as much value as possible out of those first two picks so if a guy like Orakpo or Maybin falls to them, I think they should pounce. Linebacker is the obvious need and there's much value there in the first, so I'd assume that's the route the Patriots will go. But if the LBs are gone, maybe look at a high upside guy like Moreno, who I believe will be a very good back in this league if used correctly. He won't burn around the edge like some in this draft, but he's a guy who, in the second level, will turn 4 yard carries into 40 yard touchdowns and has the size and frame to survive the pounding of running inside in the NFL.