Colin Kaepernick and Nevada will be looking to avoid the upset in Fresno.
Fresno State Bulldogs (6-2, 4-1 WAC) vs. #21 AP/ESPN/BCS Nevada Wolf Pack (8-1, 3-1 WAC), 10:30 P.M. ETSpread: Nevada by 8.5
Total: 68.5
Can Fresno State slow down Nevada’s high-powered offense? The Wolf Pack are known mostly for their rushing prowess, but last weekend at Idaho, Colin Kaepernick threw for 320 yards and a career-high five touchdowns in a 63-17 win.
The 6-2 Bulldogs, whose only losses this season were at SEC member Ole Miss and at home to 7-3 Hawaii, are still technically in the mix for the WAC title, as they face Nevada and Boise State over the next two weeks. As unlikely as it is that they can go into Boise and beat the Broncos, they could all but hand their long-time rivals the conference title by inflicting a second conference loss on the Wolf Pack, who have won two straight after a loss at Hawaii to remain in the WAC title race and move back into the Top 25.
These meetings have often been high-scoring, with Nevada winning 52-14 last year in Reno and 41-28 in their last visit to Fresno in 2008. In fact, nine of the last 11 meetings have seen the winning team score at least 38 points, and the total has eclipsed 70 points in seven of those meetings.
And considering that Nevada is averaging more than 44 points per game and Fresno State is averaging nearly 35 per game, then the percentages favor another shootout.
Hawaii significantly slowed down Nevada’s rushing attack in their win, allowing only 134 yards on the ground, and they also forced four turnovers against a team who has only nine giveaways in their other eight games. Fresno State is going to have to do much the same in order to have a chance, because I don’t see the Bulldogs being able to keep up if it becomes a ‘who can score 50 first?’ kind of game, even though they have scored more than 30 points on six occasions this season.
No matter how well they play defensively, Fresno State will have to produce offensively. Nevada’s biggest defensive weakness is the pass, as they’re 108th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. That has partly to do with the fact that having big leads in several games has forced opponents to air it out a lot, but Fresno State’s Ryan Colburn (1,736 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT) has the goods to have a big day against Nevada’s secondary.
The big showdown is in two weeks, but that big showdown won’t matter if the Wolf Pack don’t get past this one, and with that in mind, I don’t think Nevada will let one sloppily slip away like they did at Hawaii.
I do think that Fresno will be able to keep it within reach for a while, if not the whole way through, but in the end, Nevada will come away with its second straight win in Fresno and third straight overall against the Bulldogs.
SPREAD PICK: Fresno State +8.5
TOTAL PICK: Over 68.5.
Starting next week, you will see my picks and prognostications on college football, the NFL, and several other sports on http://sports-picking.com/. All picks, all the time. I make no guarantees or promises about winning percentages!
Tags: Boise State, Colin Kaepernick, Fresno State Bulldogs, Hawaii Warriors, NCAA Football, Nevada Wolf Pack, Ryan Colburn, WACRelated posts on The Red Zone Report
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