NL Update: Two Weeks In

I'm going to try to do this every couple weeks, although considering my history with "running features" I'm not going to bother making any promises. Most of this is just building on the divisions preview, while incorporating each team's 2009 performance as described here.

Pre: Team strength, according to PECOTA and CHONE, used in the preseason sim.
RS/RA: Runs scored and allowed per game, though 4/19.
Pyth: Pythagorean W%, though 4/19.
Current: Team strength used in this sim; at this point in the season it's basically 96% PECOTA/CHONE, 4% 2009 Pythag.
Div%: Percentage chance to win division, as of 4/19.
PreD%: Percentage chance to win division, as of 4/4.
P'Off%: Percentage chance to reach the playoffs, as of 4/19.
Div: Best available odds to win the division.
Site: Where those odds can be found.

I don't think I could bring myself to argue too vehemently that the Nationals are better than the Marlins, as the numbers above would indicate, but I'm also not going to go nuts about two weeks of baseball.

In projecting Florida to win 72 games, PECOTA was particularly worried about their run prevention, as it had them allowing 822 runs, the fourth highest mark in the league.  That obviously hasn't been a problem thus far; their 3.8 RA/G is the third best mark in the NL.  A 4.20 ERA may be underrating Johnson, who has kicked off the year with a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 21.2 innings (CHONE, which had the Marlins at 75 wins, projects Johnson to a 3.94 ERA).
But the rest of the PECOTA ERAs for the rotation seem reasonable enough.  Volstad was effective in his first two starts, but that was aided by a .149 BABIP, and he was pretty bad against Washington on Sunday.  In seven innings split between the bullpen and rotation, Andrew Miller has shown no signs of improving on his control issues, walking four batters while striking out just two.  It's been a nice start, but they're going to see some serious regression in their run prevention when they face the Phillies, Mets, and Cubs after travelling to Pittsburgh this week.
Atlanta's odds come out looking good here, since they're available at +500, compared to the +380 of a couple weeks ago, and their percentage in the sim has barely changed.  It really comes down to whether you think the Marlins are a "true talent" 76-win team, as they are in the sim; the strength of a team currently five games ahead of the Braves in the standings has a very large effect on their chances of winning the division.
The Central would be a lot more interesting if the Brewers hadn't started out 4-8, or if Carpenter could've stayed healthy for more than ten minutes.  As it happened, though, the prohibitive favorites became even more prohibitive by taking two of three against the Cardinals to move to 7-4.  It may be annoying to play in such a large division, but when teams #5 and 6 are 250:1 to win the title just two weeks in, there's really not much for the four viable teams to complain about.

The Dodgers at -110 isn't even interesting to discuss, it's simply ridiculous. SportsBetting/Sportsbook just blatantly haven't updated their odds all week, in which time the Dodgers have moved into a dominant position in the West. LA, with the best run differential in baseball (+42), has won eight in a row to move to 10-3. 
Almost as importantly, the Diamondbacks, supposedly their stiffest competition, have scored just 40 runs in losing eight of their first 12 games.  The Padres are only a game behind the Dodgers, but the odds that they stick around for the next 24 weeks are extremely slim, and the next closest team (Colorado) is five back.  The team most likely to win its division right now is LA, and it's not particularly close.
It's not clear how long Kuroda is going to be out (doesn't seem too serious), but the Dodgers have enough depth that it's not going to be a huge issue either way.  McDonald had a 141:53 K:BB ratio in 141 innings between AA and AAA last year; he hasn't been great in his first two starts, but he's certainly an asset as a #6 starter (#7, if you count Schmidt).  If Kershaw and Kemp build on their excellent starts and have "breakout" years, the Dodgers are a definite threat to win 100 games.  They're currently 8:1 to win the NL at Bodog; considering their current playoff chances and overall strength, those appear to be very good odds.