Prospect Profiles 2009: Justin Orenduff

Overview-A supplemental first round pick in 2004, Orenduff had an excellent college career at George Washington University and Virginia Commonwealth University. As a professional, he's been solid but generally uninspiring. His 2008 season was a complete disaster, and Orenduff's future in the organization is now in doubt.

Stuff-Orenduff's arsenal consists of 3 pitches: a fastball, a slider, and a changeup. I've read multiple reports claiming that Orenduff's fastball sinks, but I watched more than a few of his starts last year, and unless i'm blind, his 4-seam fastball is straight as an arrow. It usually sits around 88-90 mph and touches 91. His 2-seam fastball does have minor arm-side tail into a right-handed batter, but it's certainly not a sinker. At its best, his slider is a sharp biting pitch with two plane break that's usually from 82-85 mph. However, it will get loopy at times, which makes the pitch far more hittable. Orenduff's changeup moves down and in to a righty, but the deception is mediocre, and there's little reason to offer at it.

Command-Orenduff commonly pitches up in the zone, and his fastball command is erratic. He seemed to have solid command over his slider, but he still hangs too many of them. As far as his changeup goes, I don't think I saw him throw one strike with it. There's no problem with missing down in the zone with a changeup, but if the hitters never see a strike with it, there's no reason to offer. Generally speaking, he simply pitches from behind too often to be effective.

Mechanics-At first glance, Orenduff has simple mechanics that look smooth and repeatable. However, there are some negatives in his delivery which I believe lead to inconsistency.

The first thing I would address is his stiff front leg at footstrike. I think this elevates his pitches more often than he intends, which is never a good thing when you pair it with average raw stuff. This would be a simple enough fix, but I doubt it's gonna change at this point in his career.

His motion also involves a stabbing motion backwards with the ball instead of a traditional arm circle. By itself, this isn't a major issue, but it seems to cause Orenduff's arm timing to be late, leading him to compensate for this by either pulling hard with his left shoulder or pushing the ball out from a much lower arm slot. This would explain why he misses with his pitches so badly at times.

Mental-Even when he's getting destroyed on the mound, he never seems flustered or off kilter. This has to count for something as far as his makeup goes.

Health-I don't recall any major health issues.

Performance-Orenduff's track record seems to indicate a player who struggles against higher levels of competition. His FIP (3.36/3.82/4.64/6.48), BAA (.206/.212/.265/.318), WHIP (1.13/1.14/1.42/1.83), HR/F% (5.7/6.3/10.5/15.2) and BB% (8.7/9.0/9.4/12.5) have all trended negatively since 2005. His K rate was one thing that he sustained pretty well prior to 2008 (~24%), but even that plummeted last year (18.0%). These are all horrible signs, and they don't bode well for his chances against major league hitters unless he reverses these trends soon.

Other-Nothing of note.

Projection-As a starter, Orenduff is probably the definition of a replacement level pitcher. However, I think he has some upside as a reliever. I've wanted the Dodgers to convert him to the bullpen for a couple years now, but the Dodgers seem obsessed with making him a starter, and i'm guessing that has to do with the fact that he's a first rounder. Regardless, if Orenduff can sit in the low-90s with his fastball and refine his sharp slider a bit more, I think he can still be a decent big league reliever.

Orenduff should spend most of 2009 in AAA, and hopefully he'll do it as a reliever. There's always a chance that he could get the call if injuries strike, but he seems like a September call-up at best for now.