With the Tour starting on Saturday, this will conclude our three-part preview of the 2009 Tour de France. You can also read Part 1 – The Route and Part 2 – The Field. In the previous installment of our preview, we looked at some of the favorites to win the Tour de France. Today, I’ll make some predictions about who will actually win it. I’ll answer the biggest question up front: Lance Armstrong will not win the Tour de France this year. He’s in great shape, and he certainly won’t embarrass himself, but he’s not going to win. The favorites for the Tour, according to oddschecker, are Contador (1:1), Armstrong (5:1), Andy Schleck (7:1), and Cadel Evans (11:1). First, let’s address the insanity of those Contador odds. The Tour de France is a three week slog through 2,141 miles. Anything can happen during those three weeks. I wouldn’t bet on Lance Armstrong in his prime at even money. Beyond that, the Astana team dynamics worry me, ...
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