Favre seen training/throwing passes. Sources close tell us the actual chance of a Favre comeback.

When the Favre rumors came out last week, I asked a few NFL insiders what they thought the probability was for such a scenario. The strongest statement was that there might be an 80 percent chance he would play this season. At first I felt that might have been a bit strong, but it made me start digging deeper into the possibility that No. 4 would play again. I have talked with a few people close enough to Favre that I now feel comfortable that an 80 percent chance may be a conservative estimate. He's throwing footballs, working out and it's more than an itch to play. Favre is a 38-year-old QB who has an 18-4 record in his last 22 games and is coming off a season in which he led the Packers offense to a No. 2 ranking in the NFL and threw for 4,155 yards and 28 touchdowns. He can still play -- he knows it and so do a number of NFL franchises just waiting to see what the Packers will do if he shows up in Green Bay for the start of training camp. If Favre notifies the league that he is ready to play again -- and I now believe he will do just that -- the Packers will face the reality that he is headed back to Titletown. Green Bay can reassemble his locker, cut a player on the roster to make room for him, use a chunk of salary cap space for his reentry and make another run at the Super Bowl. His salary of close to $12 million immediately counts against the cap and if he were to get hurt during the summer they would be responsible for the whole nut. If he's on the opening day roster, his salary is guaranteed. What if he shows up in late August? Do the Packers want him back? Can they afford not to let him come back? Is he tradable? Lots of questions surround this story and camp is only weeks away. Legend in not-so-familiar uniform Remember when the 49ers were done with Joe Montana? They got a first-round draft pick from the Kansas City Chiefs for the 36-year-old quarterback. Montana went to the Chiefs in 1993 after two seasons (1991-92) in which he barely played. At roughly the same age, Favre is coming off a great season. Montana never had a 4,000-yard season in his career. Most NFL people I spoke with believe Favre could easily play two more seasons -- just as Montana did when he joined the Chiefs. Montana started 25 games for Kansas City and connected for 29 touchdowns. The sentiment I got from NFL coaches, especially those who played against Favre in 2007, is that he would easily exceed the Montana production. But no one felt the Packers could get the compensation the 49ers got for Montana. Keep in mind, Favre has some control over a trade because of the size of his contract. If a team came forward and was willing to meet the Packers' trade demands, they may still have to get Favre to renegotiate the contract and he would balk at that if the team wasn't a real playoff contender. Trading him doesn't look like a strong possibility. Should the Packers welcome him with open arms and be proactive about his return? Some front office people feel Green Bay has no choice but to let him return. As one GM said, "This is a case where the tail will wag the dog if it wants to." A head coach said, "Ted Thompson is in a tough spot." As one former Packer put it, there's no way the Aaron Rodgers era starts -- nor should it -- if Favre wants to play. It wouldn't be a total shock It would not surprise me if Favre informs the Packers this week that he will report for camp and then the Packers have a decision to make. Give him his job back or release him. If the franchise truly believes it is time to move on they will release him and then the story gets interesting. Upon his release, his large salary and multiple years left on his contract would disappear. He could wind up at another NFC North club -- and the public relations nightmare is on. If Favre throws for 4,000 yards and takes a team deep into the playoffs while the Packers struggle, it could destroy careers for those who made the decision to cut him loose. It's not breaking news that Favre is a very competitive athlete and the Packers may be stoking a fire in his belly by not embracing his return. I caught up with two head coaches this weekend who feel Favre will not be back in Green Bay, he will not be traded and he will play at a high level in 2008 for an NFL playoff contender. It sounds like it's starting to get personal for Favre. Rodgers era on hold? I don't think I could let that happen if I were in Green Bay. The Rodgers era can wait, and if Rodgers doesn't understand that this issue is bigger than him that's too bad. Mike McCarthy was the best thing to happen to Brett Favre over the past two seasons and the Super Bowl is within reach with Favre. It's also within reach for other teams if Favre is on their roster. At this point, I doubt the Packers will be celebrating the Favre retirement at the first home game, but they may be preparing to play against him sometime before the season ends. The perfect scenario is that he runs out onto Lambeau Field on Sept. 8 in his green jersey. But with Minnesota, Chicago and Tampa Bay, among others, on the schedule, it could be that Favre appears in a Green Bay game this season playing in a different jersey.