Week 11 College Football Picks from WhatIfSports.com
Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.
The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.
Game of the Week: #20 Iowa 15 @ #11 Ohio State 21
The Big Ten race was supposed to come down to one game.
It just wasn't this one.
Heading into the season, many thought that the Big Ten champion would be decided by Ohio State's trip to Penn State. Instead, that game - combined with a surprise - simply set up a different winner-take-all matchup one week later as Iowa travels to Ohio State with a trip to the Rose Bowl up for grabs.
The Hawkeyes were in the conference's driver's seat until this past weekend when their 13-game winning streak came to a screeching halt against Northwestern. The Wildcats knocked out Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi, ending the Hawkeyes' dreams of finding their way into the BCS title game. Now they'll most probably need a victory this week to land spot in a BCS bowl game. And they'll likely have to do so without Stanzi. His numbers certainly weren't earth-shattering, but Stanzi had a knack for helping the Hawkeyes find a way to win. Iowa will now look to James Vandenberg to jumpstart the Hawkeyes' offense. Against the 37th toughest schedule to-date, Iowa ranks near the bottom of the national rankings with just 3.4 yards per carry. The Hawkeyes' passing marks are a little better at 7.5 yards per attempt, but they've thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. Thus, for the Hawkeyes to succeed, the game will probably come down to how well Iowa can limit Ohio State quarterback Terrell Pryor and the Buckeyes offense. The Hawkeyes give up just over 3.5 yards per carry and rank among the best in the nation, allowing less than 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
While Iowa will try to bounce back from its first loss of the season, Ohio State is coming off its best victory of the year, a road win over Penn State that helped create this winner-take-all game. Pryor has had an inconsistent season, but threw for two touchdowns and ran for another against the Nittany Lions. Playing against the 46th toughest schedule, Ohio State hasn't had quite the prolific ground game that it has brought to the table in the past, but the Buckeyes are still averaging 4.7 yards per carry and, while they rank in the 90s in passing yards per game, that statistic is a bit deceiving as they average 7.5 yards per attempt. The Buckeyes really make their mark on defense. They rank third in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, and they rank fifth in the country through the air, allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.
In a battle of stiff defenses and top 20 teams in our most recent power rankings, it's no surprise that the total stays under 40 points in the Battle for the Big Ten. And in 10,000 simulations, the team that won that game that many thought would decide the league's race last week wins the game that will actually decide the champion this time around. The Buckeyes win exactly two-thirds of the time (66.7%) and by an average score of 21-15.
Other Notable Games in Week 11
One of the best games this week will be played under the Friday night lights as West Virginia travels to Cincinnati looking to shake up the BCS and Big East standings. But the Bearcats remain undefeated in the country's most competitive conference 73.1% of the time, 33-24. That game will kick off a monster weekend for the Big East, though we could be saying those same words every week from here on out. Pittsburgh goes out of conference for somewhat of a statement game, looking to take down Notre Dame. The Panthers move to 9-1 with a win more than 70% of the time and by a 10-point average advantage. And South Florida and Rutgers face off in a game where the loser can forget about the conference race. The Bulls take care of the Scarlet Knights on the road 61.7% of the time and by just two points.
Oregon suffered a setback against Stanford last weekend, but still sits in the Pac-10 driver's seat. That said, the race is still a bit of a mess. The Ducks stay in the top spot 78.6% of the time this week, taking care of Arizona State by two touchdowns. Stanford, looking to spring its second consecutive upset, comes up just short as USC takes care of the Cardinal 61.2% of the time and by an average score of 33-29. And Arizona, which has flown under the radar but could take the league by storm against Oregon next week, moves to 5-1 in conference by winning 82.1% of the time with an 11-point average victory over Cal.
And as we hit the final month of the season, we remain on undefeated watch, but with one less team to keep an eye on after Iowa's loss. Perhaps the biggest game of the entire week in terms of the BCS picture will take place in Fort Worth, Texas, where Utah may have the best remaining shot of ending TCU's undefeated run. The Horned Frogs remain the top BCS buster candidate by winning 76.1% of the time and by a score of 35-24. In the SEC, Florida's run continues 86.1% of the time with a two-touchdown victory against South Carolina and Alabama remains unbeaten 95.0% of the time at Mississippi State. Boise State goes to 10-0 94.0% of the time against a bowl-eligible Idaho team. And Texas wins at Baylor 94.5% of the time. This means that there is a 46.7% chance that all six remaining FBS unbeatens win this week.
Last week, we hit our "Lock of the Week" to improve our ATS record to 7-2 on the year in both the NFL and college football. To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.
29
16
Boston College Eagles 77.6 20 @ Virginia Cavaliers 22.4
12
Clemson Tigers 89.6 28 @ North Carolina State Wolfpack 10.4
14
Virginia Tech Hokies 90.0 31 @ Maryland Terrapins 10.0
14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 95.0 39 @ Duke Blue Devils 5.0
17
West Virginia Mountaineers 26.9 24 @ Cincinnati Bearcats 73.1
33
37
21
25
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 5.0 7 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers 95.0
29
32
34
21
23
21
Ball State Cardinals 5.0 10 @ Northern Illinois Huskies 95.0
35
30
20
Bowling Green Falcons 69.7 18 @ Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.3
13
Temple Owls 90.5 27 @ Akron Zips 9.5
13
Western Michigan Broncos 91.5 32 @ Eastern Michigan Eagles 8.5
15
Washington Huskies 15.9 18 @ Oregon State Beavers 84.1
34
27
33
21
UCLA Bruins 88.6 28 @ Washington State Cougars 11.4
14
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 5.0 9 @ LSU Tigers 95.0
33
26
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 76.137
21
Auburn Tigers 60.7 28 @ Georgia Bulldogs 39.3
27
Kentucky Wildcats 73.1 22 @ Vanderbilt Commodores 26.9
14
Florida Gators 86.1 28 @ South Carolina Gamecocks 13.9
14
Alabama Crimson Tide 95.0 36 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs 5.0
10
Idaho Vandals 6.0 21 @ Boise State Broncos 94.0
44
38
31
42
38
20
28
23
26
22
Nebraska Cornhuskers 69.2 23 @ Kansas Jayhawks 30.8
17
Texas Longhorns 94.5 31 @ Baylor Bears 5.5
15
UTEP Miners 30.8 18 @ Southern Methodist Mustangs 69.2
26
28
26
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 89.6 31 @ Marshall Thundering Herd 10.4
15
UAB Blazers 90.0 33 @ Memphis Tigers 10.0
19
Houston Cougars 94.5 38 @ UCF Knights 5.5
20
UNLV Rebels 7.5 11 @ Air Force Falcons 92.5
31
Utah Utes 23.9 24 @ TCU Horned Frogs 76.1
35
17
Brigham Young Cougars 95.0 39 @ New Mexico Lobos 5.0
13
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 18.4 15 @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 81.6
33
23
20
North Texas Mean Green 80.6 25 @ Florida International Golden Panthers 19.4 15
Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.
Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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