The Stat Zombies VS The Prince

• Viewer Mail 8.16.2009:

Dan Markham writes RE the brouhaha over my post about the Marlins:

As a BTFer, I wanted to address your posts. The main reason few of the posts in the BTF thread addressed the issue you raised is because the premise is flawed. The Marlins, at least from the baseball operations side, are highly regarded by most at BTF (see the praise for Mr. Beinfest by Jason Kendall's No. 1 fan). In fact, I'm sure most statheads would rank Beinfest and his staff well ahead of many others you mentioned, particularly J.P., and probably Beane. Any vitriol directed at the Marlins organization is saved for Loria, Sampson and the way the pair has conducted business.

Additionally, the Marlins' preference for low-cost players, scrapheap pickups surrounding a true superstar is the kind of recipe many stat zombies endorse.

The Marlins have exceeded expectations this year, though at the moment, they've underperformed yours. Regardless, if you'd like the stat-friendly types to engage you in conversation, you might want to start by losing the strawmen and the tired stereotypes.

Sincerely,

Decidedly math deficient,

SoSH U

Since my premise is so flawed, the strategy is-----instead of engaging in a true debate or attempt to convince me (and others) that the Marlins aren't ignored----to reduce it into the tone of the comments that look more like they belong in an Excite chatroom from 1999 than a baseball website? Those comments weren't posted because of a flawed premise; those comments were posted to at best ignore my premise or goof on me rather than to make any attempt to address it.

The premise of the piece wasn't simply to point out that the stat zombie way is not used in Florida, but to point out that the majority doesn't acknowledge exactly how the Marlins do what they do. The idea behind the stat people having, as you put it, a "preference for low-cost players, scrapheap pickups surrounding a true superstar is the kind of recipe many stat zombies endorse" doesn't explain the Marlins. You mention the word "recipe" and I'll put it in those terms.

Say you'd like to cook a wonderful meal. You could: A) pay someone else to cook it (as the Yankees do by paying for players from other teams); B) follow a recipe to the letter (as the stat zombies advocate and the A's and Padres did and made a big mess); or C) go to a farmer's market, see what's there, what's cheap, what looks good and grab stuff to try to cobble something together when they get home (as the Marlins do).

There's a big difference. That doesn't mean that the recipe isn't going to come out great whichever road is taken, but the end result doesn't nullify my argument because the Marlins are respected by certain aspects of the stat community. Just doing it cheaper isn't the idea; doing it right is the idea. The Marlins sift through what's available and get use from those players, then dispatch them when they get too expensive starting the process all over again. The stat zombie clubs themselves have provided a large chunk of the Marlins current roster because they misidentified players that have use.

Jorge Cantu, with a career .311 OBP, was traded by the Rays to the Reds for nothing.

Dan Meyer was released by Billy Beane and the A's.

Dan Uggla was mired in Double A for three years in the Diamondbacks organization before Josh Byrnes----a stat guy who came from the Red Sox----left him unprotected in the minor league draft.

John Baker was waived by Beane.

Cody Ross was purchased from the Reds.

In addition to that, the Marlins don't follow the Moneyball tenets of drafting college players above all else. They draft players that can play whether they're in high school or college and then they do something innovative----they give them a chance to play!

The stat zombies may endorse what the Marlins do, but they can't copy it because they don't have the talent recognition skills to find things that may not look good on paper, but fit into the equation in practice.

I've never understood the distaste people have for Jeffrey Loria and the way he "conducts business". He's won a championship; his team contends relatively frequently; he's building a new ballpark for a disinterested town that, honestly, doesn't deserve it; and he does it under a tight budget not because he doesn't want to spend money, but because it works! Would you like to be rooting for a team run by the Wilpons for awhile? I'd trade the entire Mets organization for the entire Marlins organization from top to bottom right now if given the opportunity.

I couldn't care less whether the stat zombies want to engage with me in conversation or not. Most clearly don't want to get into a debate; they're fully welcome to discuss whatever the want with me. My problem is those that want to ridicule rather than engage; that's a waste of time and energy for me to even address.

What strawman are you referring to? So the Marlins have overperformed the zombie expectations, but underperformed mine? I predicted 90 wins; the zombies had them at around 72 (give or take) in the predictions that I saw. If they win 85-87, then we were both wrong? That's a strawman.

What of the strawman propped up by the exalted Bill James in which he alibis for the Red Sox failed closer-by-committee in 2003 by saying the idea didn't work because they misjudged some pitchers? Grady Little was a convenient scapegoat for that lost season, but if the Red Sox had someone, anyone who could close a game in even half of the 23 games that were blown by the failed concept of a bullpen-by-committee, they could've avoided the Yankees entirely in that post-season and Little's penchant for gaffes and ignoring orders wouldn't have been an issue.

Or the strawman the Rob Neyers and Rich Lederers of the world create when defending and promoting Paul DePodesta as a GM candidate? No defense can distract from the fact that his tenure as Dodgers GM was a Hawk Harrelson-level display of executive incompetence.

Or the Dave Camerons, who judge a trade in June after the main cog in that trade----J.J. Putz----gets hurt and he takes three or four good starts to promulgate the myth that Jason Vargas belongs in any team's rotation. Any trade that includes Jason Vargas is a bad trade----for the team that's actually getting Jason Vargas.

Or the Keith Laws, who mail it in on a regular basis, is a supposed scouting/stats expert who parrots scouting terminology, uses his forum to launch verbal hand grenades at his former boss, J.P. Ricciardi and doesn't pay close enough attention to his job to know the difference between Johnny and Jerry Narron or realize that Emilio Bonifacio has been traded by the Nats until months later.

I don't know what strawmen/stereotypes I've used, but if you can point them out, I'll be happy to respond.