Cain moves from unlucky to untouchable

By James Bailey

The Giants have been waiting for big things from Matt Cain since long before his Cy Young Award-winning teammate joined the organization. A first-round pick in 2002 out of Germantown, Tenn., Cain signed that summer for $1.375 million and started his career in the Rookie-level Arizona League. A year later high school senior Tim Lincecum was picked by the Cubs in the 48th round of the draft. He didn’t sign, choosing instead to attend the University of Washington.

Cain broke into the big leagues in 2005, going 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven starts. He allowed just 24 hits in 46.1 innings and had the look of a front-line ace. Lincecum, draft-eligible as a college sophomore, was picked by the Indians in the 42nd round that June. At a solid 6-foot-3, Cain had the size and body scouts covet; the 5-foot-11 Lincecum did not.

It wasn’t until Lincecum went nuts the following spring for Washington, striking out 199 in 125 innings and posting a 1.94 ERA, that the baseball world stood up and took serious notice. The Giants selected him with the 10th pick in the first round and he started his career with a dominating showing in the Cal League, striking out 48 and allowing just 13 hits in 28 innings. That placed him on the fast track to San Francisco. Cain was already there, winning 13 games and tying for fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Pitching the entire season as a 21-year-old, he struck out 179 and allowed 157 hits in 190.2 innings while recording a 4.15 ERA. If anyone anticipated the duo comprising a magical 1-2 rotation punch, Cain had as much claim to the “1” as Lincecum.

Cain’s secondary numbers were every bit as good if not better in 2007. He booked 200 innings and finished with a 3.65 ERA, 10th best in the NL. But he ranked second in the circuit in losses, winding up the season at 7-16 as the Giants stopped scoring runs for him. Cain received the second worst run support among qualifying hurlers at just 3.51 runs/9 innings. Lincecum, who broke in with 24 starts, fared somewhat better, going 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA.

Cain pitched in hard luck again last year, going 8-14 despite a 3.76 ERA. Again he received the second-worst run support in the league. He notched career bests in starts (34), innings (217.2), and strikeouts (186), but was completely lost in the shadow of his teammate. Lincecum dazzled Cy Young voters with his major league-leading 265 strikeouts and his 2.62 ERA. While he had better backing than Cain, it wasn’t hard to conclude with a few more timely runs he’d have easily won 20 games instead of finishing 18-5.

In the afterglow of his 2008, Lincecum gained star power, showing up on commercials and the cover of a video game. Cain, on the other hand, made his way into the random trade rumor. With the Giants still desperate for offense, they needed to dangle someone appealing. San Francisco’s front office has denied Cain is available, and the way he’s pitching now it would be almost impossible to receive fair value back. For one thing, he’s just 24 and is under team control for two more seasons before he’s eligible for free agency. For another, he has outpitched Lincecum for much of this season, making a case not just for an All-Star berth, but to be the NL starter.

What’s changed? There are a handful of factors. For starters, San Francisco’s weak offense has finally given Cain some backing. Not just a little, either. He actually ranks 19th among 80 qualifiers with 5.80 runs per 9 innings. That alone doesn’t account for his 9-1 record and seven-game winning streak. He’s been as stingy as anyone in the league, ranking second in the NL with a 2.28 ERA and allowing more than two runs only three times in 14 starts. His 1.21 WHIP is his best since his partial-season debut in 2005.

Cain says he increased his workouts this winter and dropped 15 pounds. He also cut down dramatically on his soda intake and is reportedly down to one can of Coke a day. In short, he made a commitment to improve himself, and the results thus far have been well worth the effort.

For now he’s still the “2” behind Lincecum. There are other young guns not far over the horizon who could stretch the rotation into a 1-2-3-4 onslaught. Righthander Tim Alderson (4-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 starts at two levels) and lefthander Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 1.88 in 12 games at two stops) currently make up the best 1-2 combo in the minor leagues. They opened the year together at Class A San Jose, then moved up to Double-A Connecticut in early May. The question now is which one will arrive first in San Francisco.

It’s another prospect who might do more for Cain and Lincecum, however. That would be catcher Buster Posey, the No. 5 overall pick in last year’s draft. Posey wore out Cal League pitching staffs in the first half, hitting .328 with a .425 on-base and .545 slugging percentage. The Giants are considering jumping him all the way to Triple-A Fresno to accelerate his learning and get him to the big leagues as fast as possible. His bat should go a long way toward improving the Giants starters’ win totals.

Even without him, Cain is on pace to win 20. Lincecum, who notched his seventh victory on Tuesday isn’t far behind. If the Giants are to have any hope of staying in the wild-card race, they’ll need both of their twin aces to keep pitching the way they have. Each of them can take his turn as the No. 1 when his spot in the rotation rolls around.