Breaking Down Pujols' Triple Crown Chances

Tyler Hissey breaks down Albert Pujols' Triple Crown chances.

http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/07/breaking-down-pujols-triple-crown-chances.html

Albert Pujols took over the title of best player in baseball soon after breaking into the majors with the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2001 and has never looked back. Pujols, a .334/.427/.631 career hitter, has put up video-game numbers with such incredible consistency that his stretch of greatness over the past nine seasons rivals that of nearly any player in baseball history. Indeed, with 352 home runs, a 173 OPS+, 1,066 RBIs, 3,068 total bases and a staggering .437 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the decade, the Cardinals slugger has to be the favorite for player of the 2000s.

When factoring in his outstanding defense at first base, the case for Pujols is a slam dunk. He has compiled an incredible 60.3 Wins Above Replacement so far in his career, averaging 6.7 WAR per season and making him one of the best bargains in the game even with his salary.

As seems to be the case every passing year, Pujols might be enjoying the finest offensive campaign yet in 2009. The 29-year-old is batting .334/.458/.740 and is currently leading the National League in games played (91), home runs (34), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS (1.197), OPS+ (214), RBIs (89) and total bases (230). While his defense is down a bit (-1.7 UZR), he has already accumulated 5.4 WAR. Thus, there's an outside chance that he'll surpass the 10.0-mark for the first time ever, which would place him in even more select company.

In what might be the biggest baseball story in the second half, though, Pujols also has a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown. While back-of-baseball card stats tend to be overrated, no player has accomplished the feat since Carl Yastremski* back in 1967, and the nation would surely follow this race if he remains near league leaders in each category.

*Yastremski may have hit "only" .326, considered low for a batting title, but you have to account for the context in which he won his Triple Crown. His offensive performance in '67 was incredible, as he put up a 13.6 BB%, .418 on-base percentage and .622 slugging percentage in his age-27 season. The Red Sox outfielder led the American League in hits (189), OPS (1.040; well, of course), OPS+ (193) and total bases (360). It was indeed one of the finest performances in the history of the Boston franchise.

So without further adieu, let's break down Pujols' chances of leading the N.L. in each Triple Crown stat.

Batting Average

This could be the hardest category for Pujols to win, but he still has an excellent chance for a repeat batting title. He currently ranks third on the circuit, behind Hanley Ramirez and the now-injured Carlos Beltran, among qualifying hitters, with Pablo Sandoval and Miguel Tejada not too far back.

As is the case with a lot of hitters whose at-bats end in a Three True Outcome, Pujols actually has a lower batting average on balls in play (BABIP, .292) than his actual batting average. It's a safe bet to assume that will improve and rise closer to his .321 career BABIP, and, because he walks more than he strikes out (18.9 BB%, 11.8 K%), contact issues won't prevent him from making a run; plus, the more walks that he draws, the fewer outs that he will make, which will benefit his BA.

ZiPS projects Pujols to hit .332 from here on out, putting his season clip at .333.

Here's what the competition looks like:

Ramirez: The league leader, he's also just a freak of nature on a baseball diamond, especially for a shortstop. He's batting .347/.409/.559 entering Sunday. However, his .382 BABIP is considerably higher than his .350 career average--granted, speed players like him can control the total better than others and he ranks among league leaders with 10.4% of his plate appearances ending in infield hits--and should drop a bit. ZiPS projects him to bat .318 from here on out, with his total ending up at .334. He's a legitimate threat to Pujols' Triple Crown hopes, though, and is also on a historic tear himself.

Beltran: With a bone bruise in his right knee, the New York Mets center fielder hasn't even been cleared to jog yet in his rehab. Even if he does return and continues to perform, he likely won't have enough at-bats to qualify.

Sandoval: The Panda* has been a monster, batting .333/.384/.574 with 15 homers and 51 RBIs for the San Francisco Giants. Once considered to be a free-swinging hacker, he has even improved his plate discipline and walk rate; granted, it still isn't great at 7.1 BB%, but it's an improvement over his totals in the minors. ZiPS sees him hitting .301 the rest of the way, with his walk rate dropping and putting his season total to .319.

*Is the Panda the coolest nickname in baseball? My vote would go to Zorilla, belonging to Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Ben Zobrist.

Recap: Ramirez is going to make the race interesting, but Pujols could take the top spot away from him in the second half if he continues to swing it like he has. The batting crown, however, could very well end up going to someone not mentioned above, with many players on the cusp.

Home Runs

After hitting two more homers on Saturday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Pujols has a sizable lead in this category. In fact, his 34 home runs are ten more than the second guys on the list; Raul Ibanez, Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds all have 24.

While some argue that teams will only pitch around Pujols in the second half, thus decreasing his opportunities for pitches to drive into the seats, he could win this race left-handed. Ibanez was on a mission from God in the first half, but color me skeptical that the 37-year-old will keep his pace up all year. Gonzalez hits in a cave. And Reynolds has already struck out 124 times.

This is the one stat that Pujols, whose .401 Isolated Power leads the majors by nearly 50 points, has on lock.

RBI

Pujols leads the N.L. with 90 RBIs, nine more than Prince Fielder's 81. After Fielder, Ryan Howard is third at 68.

Thus, it's clearly a two-man race. Albert lost out to baseball's most famous vegan, Fielder, in front of his home crowd at the Home Run derby, but he should be the favorite to get some revenge here.

Driving in runs, like getting a woman's telephone number, is the function of opportunity, however, and the battle could be decided by how effectively the players ahead of them set the table. So let's take a look at the to-date slash stats lines for the spots in front of these guys for each team.

Brewers:

Leadoff: .265/.329/.410 overall.

Two Hole: .261/.339/.403 overall.

Three Spot: .300/.379/.517 overall. Ryan Braun has been outstanding, batting .308/.391/.524 in the majority of at-bats in the third place in the Brewers' batting order. Braun has scored 62 runs, many of which came off Fielder blasts. He gives an edge there, since Pujols bats third himself.

Cardinals:

Leadoff: .285/.344/.388 overall. Skip Schumaker can't field a lick at second base, where he's completely miscast. He's not out of place at the top of the order, though, as he has put up a healthy .365 OBP in the spot in the majority of at-bats there for St. Louis.

Two hole: .270/.324/.428 overall. Rasmus, the favorite for N.L. Rookie of the Year, will see time there. He has put up a 6.1 BB%, .327 OBP and is only projected for a .315 OBP from here on out, though, according to ZiPS.

We can't draw a lot of conclusions from this, but those spots in the order will be crucial for each player's chances, assuming that they each stay healthy.

Pujols is the better all-around hitter, of course, and has hit an incredible .328/.524/.742 with men on base and .382/.588/.765 with runners in scoring position. Thus, all else equal, he would be the favorite. Fielder is no slouch, however, and is projected to finish with 42 home runs and 139 RBIs by ZiPS. He has been productive with ducks on the pond as well, batting .340/.460/.705 with men on base and .333/.460/.705 with runners in scoring position. If pitchers indeed avoid going after Pujols with men on base like the plague, that could also play a factor.

Conclusion: Pujols is a monster. ZiPS projects him to hit .333 with 53 homers and 146 RBIs. If he can stay on the field, he could even top those numbers and do what horse Big Brown* couldn't do: win a Triple Crown.

*I debated putting Barbaro, but is it too soon? In all seriousness, though, it might not be a bad idea for a trainer to name their horse Sir Albert; heck, that's a horse that would get my bet at the Derby next year.

Any PED allegations directed against Pujols are entirely unfair. But has there been any testing done to confirm that he's in fact a human and not a machine?