January 31, 2014

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN, HERE'S WHY I'D PUT MONEY ON DENVER.

SEATTLE QB Russell Wilson is downright preternatural. It would take a team of scientists a decade, working around the clock, to explain this guys game. It's not just the lack of mistakes, it's also the way he has of making big plays not seem so big. He can throw 3 or 4 TD's in a game and somehow STILL not be the story. He's like those Dr. Who villains called The Silence. Terrifying when you see them doing their thing, but the instant you look away, you forget you've EVER seen one. 

RB Marshawn Lynch is a machine and HC Pete Carroll understands that even when his team is down a bit, to keep feeding Lynch the ball. That, as much as how hard Lynch runs, is the reason Seattle has the success they have.  

However, outside of Wilson and Lynch you can never be sure what kind of offensive output you're going to get from the Seahawks. Even their blowouts are keyed off of their defense. 

Quick! Name the starting TE for Seattle.  Anyone who has a problem with DJax disappearing in games, would have a conniption over having to rely on Seattle's starting WR's. Want to see a weird stat? 44 Sacks. Despite having a RB with 300 carries, and often playing with a lead, the 'hawks gave up 44 sacks. A LOT of them being coverage sacks. So the O-line is "meh" and so are the receivers.

Seattle's defense however, is every bit as good as advertised. They can reach with 4, defend the run, take away the quick-easy throws, and they make every difficult throw a contested one to boot. Their Special Teams coverage unit is a monster at limiting hidden yardage as well. They live and die by their defense.

And that's why my call is Denver. 

Peyton Manning is the best in the game. He does exactly what all the other good QB's do, (pre-snap reads, mixes his cadences, gets teams to tip their hand, doesn't let pass rush win, then throws his receivers open). The difference is, he does all of it better and with more consistency. True, flapping his arms about, he looks like a crazed chicken out there, but if it works...

All the talk is of how the Broncos WR's physically match-up with Seattle's secondary, but I think the thing that being lost is HOW Denver can utilize those big WR's. Two words: Screen game. 

If I'm HC John Fox, I want to spread Seattle out, take them out of their base, and turn Seattle's aggressive press coverage into easy-to-make blocks by my big WR's, so RB Knowshon Moreno to get loose on screens and bring those Safeties into the box. It takes patience to beat a team like Seattle. Let me ask you: Does John Fox strike you as impatient? 

When the Safeties load the box, we'd see if "The LOB" can function one-on-one, deep down the sidelines, against an offense of this caliber. FYI: Seattle has been my fantasy defense for the last 2 years, and this is specifically the type of match-up that I've come to start benching them in. 2 years, 4 leagues, 3 Championships. I just sayin... It helps to know the limits of a teams capabilities.

 

11 Comments:
  • as usual an expert analysis. Thanks for the insight.
  • Thank you.

    It's funny, I was JUST on NFL.com and reading that Colin Kaepernick thinks the Seahawks are vulnerable inside when they're in the Nickle.

    Being that Denver plays 3WR's as part of their base offense, I foresee a LOT of Seattle in the Nickel. That is unless they want to try and cover Wes Welker with an OLB.
  • Broncos 42-10. If the Patriots couldn't run on the Broncos defense with three good backs I doubt Lynch is going to be able to either. In my opinion, Peyton Manning is the best quarterback to ever play the game and this Super Bowl win and MVP award just adds to his resume.
  • Money's on the broncos but I rather see the seahawks win.
  • Peyton is going to have huge day. He was on point against his arch rivals Brady and Belichick in the AFCC and it'll carry over to this game. The Hawks loud mouths are going to back fire as Peyton gives them the attention they've been begging for.

    Broncos 35-13

    Peyton MVP - 350yds, 4tds
  • I think the Broncos will put up points, but I doubt that Seattle will get run out of the building.

    Despite what I said about Wilson earlier, I think he's a very good (possibly great) QB, and I just don't see him going out like that.
  • Nope
  • They threw Moreno all of one screen. The rest of the time they kept throwing short passes underneath the LB's and screens to Thomas who was being press covered. And at no point did someone say "Hey. This isn't working."

    The worse part was watching the Broncos O-line get manhandled, punked and bullied all night long. Seattle's 4 man rush kept Denver's 5 man Line on their heels from LITERALLY the first snap.
  • Yea that dline was sweet. The broncos offense was like watching Reid call plays again. Same thing over n over regardless if it works or not. Thomas seemed scared to get hit n wouldn't just go up field.

    In the end I'm happy with the result. I rather wilson win one than any manning.
  • Manning has nothing left in that arm. I thought it was his time.. I usuall like the team that wins by the least in the championship games. So from a betting standpoint I would have picked Seattle but simply from the Peyton Manning perspective(emotion) I like denver. Now I wish he retires.
  • Nothing left in his arm? He just put up the best season in history for a quarterback. He flat out choked is what he did. The whole team did.
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