February 11, 2013

MY "SOFT" PREDICTION FOR 2013.

TODAY we know we have Michael Vick running Chip Kelly's up-tempo system.

Today we know that the Defense will play 4-3 but will transition to a 3-4.

Today we know who our staff is. We know we can rule out a QB as a high Draft pick. 

Soon playbooks can go out. Teammates can start calling each other to say "Hey man, check out the play on page 6 of Section Red in the playbook!" or "Hey man, what kind of block is that in the sub-audible on page 2 of Section White?"

Things can get moving now.

There's still Free Agency and a Draft to be had, but my guess is that this team will gut out 5-6 wins this year. Anything more than 8 and we should all (me included) take stock of what we consider makes a good coach. 

I don't like the senior members of this staff and I don't like the 3-4 Defense, AT ALL. But I still believe in a number of the guys on this roster. There's still a lot of talent on this roster, so 5-11 should be for the taking. If the leadership can prove us wrong then, well...

I'll speculate later again after the Draft and then after Week 3 of the preseason.

29 Comments:
  • I think that's fair and reasonable with all the changes that this team will go through. We all saw what the Eagles went through with an influx of free agents and Mudd and Washburn being brought in and Castillo being promoted in 2011. The Eagles were lucky to get to 8-8 by way of an extremely easy schedule at the end of the season. I would be SHOCKED to see this year end up even at 8-8 with all the changes involved and the players that remain caught up in this downward spiral.
  • [not displayed: comment from locked account]
  • 0-16 would get the Eagles any player they wanted in the draft next year...it wouldn't be all bad. LOL.
  • [not displayed: comment from locked account]
  • With Vick at the helm I expect at least 9 wins. There is no point in starting a 33 year old quarterback unless you are grooming his replacement or you expect to win now. Can't see Foles as the replacement so that means they expect to win now. As such I do too. Anything less than 9 wins is unacceptable. Of course with giving Vick a one year deal there is no guarantee he is going to finish the season out as the starter or even on the roster for that matter. Still as along as Vick is the starter I expect victories.
  • I figured that there was some pressure to win put on Kelly. Not a lot, but some. there still is the chance that Vick could be dealt, but in all likelihood he's The Man.

    Now here's the upshot, and remember where you read it first: If Vick is expected to sing for his supper (i.e. WIN), it means that the Eagles have already made peace with NOT getting a shiny, new franchise QB in the 2014 Draft. Yes, I did say 2014.

    7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 will have the Eagles drafting anywhere from 11th to 21st (based on past drafts). Those positions take us out of typical franchise QB drafting position. When you start drafting QB's that late and on, you're hoping to get "quality" (i.e. LUCKY).

    The Eagles will be in excellent position if Vick fails and we tank 2013. However, if Vick gets this team above .500, Chip Kelly (and the fans) will be tied to him for at least 2 more years.

    Just remember where you read it first.
  • 5-11 should get them in the top 10 and may be close enough to get that franchise quarterback with a team looking to move down next year. Sometimes a team needs to get a little lucky and be willing to give up a couple draft picks to make a move. Who knows maybe Kelly takes a chance on one of the mobile quarterbacks in this years draft and he shows Kelly enough to play him early...you just never know.
  • Aaaaand we're back to "you never know!"

    The thing is YES you OFTEN do know.

    Yes. I missed on the Eagles trading McNabb. I missed because the move made sense on NO level. And the result has been 3 years of sub-McNabb level play. I didn't screw up with what I said, the Eagles are the ones who screwed up. And they're paying for it aren't they?

    I said the Eagles should go after Nnamdi Asomugha. I said we need a big DT, and they got Cullen Jenkins. (It's not my fault they haven't had a legit DC since they made those EXPENSIVE moves, but those players are still on the roster. Let's see what they do in 2013 even under a lackluster, but still experienced DC.)

    I also said they should fleece the Cards and trade Kolb to them. They did, didn't they? It's not hard to see these things coming.

    (The Draft is harder. Their logic tends to meander yer-to-year.)

    Roster and FA moves are simple 9th grade algebraic algorithms. Watch:

    If position on roster is greater than that of greatest commodity on the open market, add nothing from open market, work from roster.

    If roster position is lesser than greatest commodity on open market, factor in salary cap room for you and your bidding rivals. If your cap space is greater than that of your rivals apply X commodity on the open market to roster.

    (I tried to write the algorithms out but YB keeps translating the second one's symbols into jibberish.)

    That's how I could so adamantly, and repeatedly explain WHY Vick would be back barring a trade. (Trades are wildcards, don't rule them out). It's not genius or insight, it's simple mathematics. Anyone can do it if they bother to.
  • I typed you never know to my comment about the Eagles drafting a quarterback THIS year. It may happen. Please don't start throwing out all these predictions of yours that have worked out...I've seen many from you that haven't. You want to suggest that trading McNabb was a mistake because they let McNabb go and the Eagles wins dropped after a year. His play after he was traded and the fact that he is no longer in the league suggest that just maybe it didn't work because they had the wrong players on the roster to take over. His age and his fading skills convince me that the Eagles would have done no better than the usual and part of me feels it may have not been that good. I won't bury you for wanting Asomugha (most of us liked the signing but I wasn't thrilled with the price) but I will question why you won't fault him even a little bit for all the plays he has missed these last two years. It wasn't just the lack of a DC or safeties...he had chances to make some plays on balls and make some big tackles and almost always came up short. Your prediction about Vick staying this year did remind me of your insistance that the Eagles wouldn't trade McNabb and that they wouldn't fire Reid this year and we know how both of them worked out. You also had the Eagles going 13-3 in 2011 and stated the division was a mortal lock this year (many haven't let you live that one down) barring injuries AFTER Jason Peter's injury. I know, I know...injuries were to blame and you did give yourself that out but injury was not the only reason this team was 4-12 this year. A couple other predictions you've had in the past is that Jackson would be traded (and Cooper would step in) and the one comment that I'll never forget is that you told someone (it may have been me) that Luke Kuechly was just another Casey Matthews...yeah, I don't think so. I think you may have been one of the barkers that kept discussing how great Taylor Mays was going to be also but am not too sure about that one. Everybody get's a few picks wrong and there is nothing wrong with that but you have picked a few things right and you definitely seem to know your football. Just let me give you a little suggestion just like you gave me one a while back...tone down on patting yourself on the back so much. It's a bit unflattering.
  • What IS flattering however, is how you've been paying such careful and loving attention to seemingly EVERY word I say on here.

    You say we "would have done no better than the usual"? You do realize that 10 wins and the playoffs was "the usual"?

    I don't fault Nnamdi MUCH, because I spent YEARS watching him do in Oakland EXACTLY what he does here. Everybody was hoping for a "shutdown corner" and that was NEVER his game. He is a timing disruptor. QB's would look over see the WR wasn't where he was supposed to be, and go somewhere else with the ball. Balls did get thrown DEEP to his side of the field, but the Raiders used to play a Single-high Safety and that erased a LOT of those attempts (although it ALLOWED quite a few as well). He's doing what our coaches saw on film and coveted, and what sent him to Pro Bowls and what got him a truckload of of Lurie's moolah. It's the reason the coaches here, (or the owner) NEVER got down about his play. It's the reason there is no talk of re-doing HIS contract.

    With Taylor Mays, I said he should be transitioned to SLB where he could cover TE's or a WLB where he could blitz off the corner. He was protected even in college by being relegated strictly to deep Safety. That translates as "liability in coverage". He's more Bernard Pollard than Ed Reed. FYI: I said the same thing about Jarrad Page when they brought him here. Guys like that are Nickle/Dime LB's, but the NFL still insists on trying to make them into Safeties. Page, Pollard, Mays, Roy Williams, Michael Lewis, the list goes on.

    And yeah, I was wrong about Keuchly. Okay, and?

    As for the Mortal Lock, before the O-line injuries started to pile up we WERE 3-1 atop the division with a win over the eventual champions. Peters got injured so early on, that there was no excuse for NOT having an answer for that problem. They made a good faith effort at it by signing Bell, which we ALL thought was great. I figured they'd adjust. They were fighting through it and we got to 3-1. Then we lost Kelce and had to grab a guy off the street to replace him. When the concussion per week derby started, there was no way to overcome the deficiencies. We were done. Period.

    But again. I'm flattered!
  • Be flattered if you want to be. I remember quite a bit of what hollywood types also so take that as you want to. I knew you would have "reasons" for most of your off days but I'll only respond to this one. While you were telling the rest of us that the Eagles were doing well at 3-1, most of us were telling you that the record was extremely deceiving and that is why we were upset. It wasn't the record, it was that besides the Ravens game there wasn't another game you can point out that made any me feel good about this team. Most of us weren't shocked that the wheels fell off at all...the Eagles were heading there right from the start of the preseason. Vick may have had a worse preseason than Kolb back in 2010 and I wasn't sure that was possible. He carried that right through the season but was given a chance to give him and some fans a little hope in the season ender against the Giants...never happened. Vick has made many of us lose hope in this Eagles team...I honestly hope Kelly finds whatever he thinks Vick has left.

    You keep bringing up how Asomugha is not a shutdown corner because he doesn't get picks but shutdown corner is how he was advertised for years. Being a shutdown corner simply is a corner that doesn't allow the receiver to make plays...sometimes by not allowing the ball to be thrown his way. That was not Asomugha at all, quarterbacks looked his way too many times and too many times he failed to do his job.
  • Awwww. Michael Vick stole your hope? Really? You must have been so HAPPY when Foles got to start and promptly went 1-5. Or did Foles steal Christmas for you too?

    Finding it hard to stay up for your team when they're not winning, huh? Well the RAIDER FAN will show you how to do it. (God knows I've had the practice.)

    And as far as you making space in your head for Hollywood's ramblings: yeeeeeesh! What are you trying to do forget about some childhood trauma? I still can't figure out why anyone reads him or Kellyscott (both of whom I blocked). Stop reading his stuff. Get a more worthwhile hobby like knitting or dogfighting or something. Just don't get caught knitting.
  • I see that THIS time you didn't use the "no picks" excuse for Asomugha...my bad. He still was horrible, flip. You're flat out being biased in his case. Maybe this is a time you need to look at a corner that failed that wasn't an ex-Raider so you can look at it while blocking out the emotion.
  • By all means! Name the other $60 million CB who took his game elsewhere, whose first DC was an Offensive Line coach; and who's Safeties were blasted on television by their replacement DC for blowing even a High School level coverage, and I'll take a nice long look.

    Tennessee has a similar situation to ours as far as QB's go. NOBODY has a story like ours on Defense these last two (now three) straight years.

    But you find it and I'll take a look.
  • You again ignore the fact that even when Asomugha was in position to make a play he missed on way too many. That wasn't Castillo...that was Nnamdi Asomugha. If a player is in position to make a play and fails it is no ones fault but his own but you again will come up with excuses. It wasn't always the safeties' fault Asomugha seemed to struggle time and time again when the ball was in the air...it wasn't Castillo's fault that Asomugha added to the secondary's problems when it came to tackling. Asomugha didn't look average playing corner for the Eagles the last two years, he looked horrible. Castillo did him no favors, I'm not going to deny that but Asomugha didn't do Castillo any either...some great players hide some of the inadequacies of a bad football team...Asomugha added to them.
  • I didn't ignore anything. Further up I said I didn't blame Nnamdi MUCH. I didn't say I absolved him of all blame. Castillo or Bowles wasn't the one who got run by on TD's.

    It also wasn't the CB's that the coaches were publicly lamenting. That says something. During games the CB's would turn to the SAFETIES and (reading body language, because we couldn't hear it) question where they were. You never saw the Safeties give the CB's that exasperated expression. That says something.

    You want somebody to PAY for how bad the Eagles were last year. I get it. Reid was fired, but they hired him all over again. It's like they gave you a pound of flesh and promptly took one back. Vick. Asomugha. You feel like nobody's paid, and like nobody's gonna.

    But as bad as YOU think they are, the coach, and the owner still feel that they need these very guys. Complain all you like, just know it's not really me that you're arguing with.
  • I don't want anybody to pay for last year, Doctor flip. I would like to see players that aren't playing well GONE, why must everything be deeper with you than simply fans wanting to see that their team is taking steps to improve. I just stated in a post last night that Asomugha will either be cut or his contract will be re-worked (and don't give me "I haven't seen any report's that Asomugha's deal will be re-done so it won't"...you tried that with the Vick deal and you were wrong again...the Eagles surprise many with their moves) and if the Eagles feel that they can't get better at corner than they may have to bring Asomugha back for one more year. I honestly would rather they bring back Rodgers-Cromartie if they only brought back one of the starters but I wouldn't give him crazy money and some team may overpay him so I doubt that happens. If they don't re-sign Rodgers-Cromartie than they may have to keep Asomugha but I doubt it's for 15.5 million. He may opt out for a new address.

    Yeah I saw that look a few times by Asomugha...I wonder if the safties gave it back to him after getting beat time and time again in one on one situations.

    It isn't just me THINKING Vick and Asomugha were bad...they were bad and that is exactly why I am upset with the Vick move. If you could just admit that maybe you wouldn't have to waste your time looking deeper and trying to figure out why the fans on yardbarker are upset.
  • The coaching staff still scares me, so I'm sticking to 5-11 for the time being. Like I said I'll revisit it a couple more times though.
  • [not displayed: comment from locked account]
  • Didn't I already run you off of here once? This time I'll have to make sure you STAY dead.

    And NO they didn't "shake me up". In fact if you actually read what I wrote, I only think they'll win that many games because Vick is the starter. If Foles or a rookie starts my prediction would be lower.

    It's just downright silly to assume that a rookie HC is going to waltz in to the NFL and take it by storm. It could happen, but it's silly to assume.
  • [not displayed: comment from locked account]
  • Pop in periodically?

    Yeah it IS a soft prediction. I said that I'd make two more that's why this is a soft one.

    I still have yet to see where YOU have anything to say besides taking shots at people. Or where you say anything positive about the team you so CLAIM to be a "real fan" of.
  • Eugenie read the word "SOFT" and got all excited. He wanted to come on in here and see what he/she could do to make things hard again.
  • With the exception of moving my expectation to 7-9, The rest of this post still holds true.
  • I think anything is possible. If the offense can gain traction and stay healthy we can quickly become a top 10 offense. We have similar more experienced personal from 2010. I think on defense we let go of too many impact players but on the flip side those guys played like they didnt care. I think getting rid of Jenkins and Patterson was a mistake but we have some maturing draft picks that should pay dividends. We are no longer the perennial "young team". Guys like Graham and Allen have to step up. If they do and some of our new free agents can give solid contributions I dont think 9-7 is out of question. Now if the Eagle drama machine steps in and we have musical qb skits going on we could easily bottom out at 2-14. We need a good coach here. we will find out what chip is made of.
  • Cullen Jenkins. Aren't they looking for a GOOD 3-4 DE to play opposite Cox? Oh well...

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