April 17, 2013

PROBLEMS DRAFTING

MOST NFL teams use some version of a pick valuation chart. It come in handy when considering trades up or down, and helps teams not get hosed in an exchange. At least that's what it's supposed to do. The problem with the PVC is that it places the value on the spot and not the player.

(RAIDER FAN! SPEAKING WITH AUTHORITY HERE!) What good is the #1 pick if you draft a the wrong guy? Doing your homework is meaningless if you didn't understand the lesson in class. It just means you probably got everything wrong. 

One of the worst things in all of sports is this predetermining where players SHOULD go NOT based on how well they'd fit the system they'd go to, but just off of aggregate scouting and the Combine.

Some examples: Dee Milliner, is widely considered the best man corner in this Draft, so why select him high to play a zone based scheme? There's speculation that Dion Jordan could end up a Jaguar since he's such an explosive pass rusher. This is is cool until you realize that the Jags played a 4-3 last year and their new HC coached a 4-3 in Seattle last year. So should they play Jordan as a primarily pass rushing OLB or as an undersized DE? It'll be interesting to track his career if they pick him. 

These PVC, "best athlete available" (BAA), or only drafting certain positions high, type things that teams do every year, only creates artificial scarcities which drive up the value of certain players. Commons sense tells everyone when an individual is valued too high. But the algorithmWhen everyone looks past that individual, due to the PVC, BAA, or the position, the individual gets called the bust, not the system that cranks out dozens of wasted picks and ill fits like him EVERY YEAR! It's crazy making. 

What do we need? Is it available? How much of it is available? If what we need is scarce, how do we get to it quickly? THAT is the only sane blueprint to follow.

The Giants used to draft like that. So did Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys. 

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