March 21, 2013

Trade winds a blowing! (I feel a Draft)

It looks like the Eagles are done with free agency at this point (unless an unexpected player gets cut and they can get him on the "cheap"). So what now?

I think the Eagles are looking at their roster and determining who is a good fit, and who might be expendable. QB Foles is a player that a lot of experts think "doesn't fit" the Kelly scheme. Which is true if Kelly wants to run the high tempo/pistol/read option offense. So Foles is still the most likely to be traded to a QB desperate team (which are quite a few). Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith, the most likely landing spot for Foles would be the NY Jets (esp since Marty Mornhinweg is their new offensive coordinator and Foles has a strong arm to battle the cold/windy NY elements). Would it be a straight up trade? Or could this possibly be another blockbuster deal which could land CB Darrelle Revis? If the Tampa Bay Bucs aren't able to make a move for Revis, and the Jets come to the realization that they might not be able to land a high 1st round pick for him, don't rule out the trade possibility. My guess would be a combination of draft picks/swap etc. Foles and our 2nd? Foles/1st round pick swap/future conditional pick? Your guess is as good as mine. Given the Eagles really only have one decent staring CB (Cary Williams) this COULD make sense. This also depends on how the Eagles feel about CB Bradly Fletcher.

Kelly has opted for a few of his previous Oregon players in free agency (QB Dixon and SS Chung). He knows what he's getting, and players who are familiar with his coaching style. Does this mean that the Eagles will draft OLB Dion Jordan with the 4th overall pick? I'm not sure this would be the Eagles choice. With the recent signing of OLB/DE Connor Barwin, I think the Eagles filled the need they were lacking. While some may think we could also use another OLB, I think the Eagles believe they have a player who is better suited to be a 3-4 rush end than a 4-3 end in Brandon Graham (think Lamar Woodley of the Steelers). Given the signing of Barwin, I think the Eagles concentrate on their options at either OT/G or DL. So who's the pick?

As I stated in another discussion, I still think QB Geno Smith is our biggest pawn in the draft. While we now see the Chiefs/Jaguars posturing with private workouts/he's our guy talk, I don't think anyone is biting. The cost of acquiring the #1/#2 pick is way too steep for a player that many believe will be over drafted before slot #15 (or later pending on his "true" value). Everyone knows that QB is the most sought after position, so it is not out of the question that the Eagles move down a few slots to acquire more picks in a deep draft. Some of the possibilities include: Browns at #6, Cardinals at #7 (Drew Stanton? Please), Bills at #8 or Jets at #9. This again all depends on how much value the Eagles place on the top talent in this years draft (OT Luke Joeckel or OT Eric Fisher). I'm starting to think these are the ONLY two players the Eagles will consider standing pat for at pick #4 (mostly due to the health concerns of DT/DE Star Lotuleilei who's stock has taken a slight hit due to health concerns). I still believe Star is our BEST choice if we are going defense, so his private workout could also play a role in deciding who to pick at #4. DT Shariff Floyd could also be an interesting pick, so that might be a bit of a "monkey wrench" in this discussion.

While some players are "best at their position" (i.e. CB Dee Milliner/G Chance Womack) I think that picking them at spot #4 would be considered too high (even though they still are good picks). While the top 5 in the NFL draft is usually considered to be the best place for elite talent, this year is different (since there really is no CLEAR #1 overall pick). I also don't think there is much difference in terms of player value with picks #6-#15. So if the Eagles don't see much of a difference between players like: OT Lane Johnson, OLB Jarvis Jones, CB Dee Milliner, OG Johnathan Cooper, OLB Dion Jordan etc. Along with the descending stock status of DE/DT Star Lotuleilei and undervalued position of Guard (Chance Womack) etc. Why not trade down?

This is the perfect year to acquire more picks, and we are in a unique position of drafting in the top 5 (and have assets teams are in dire need of in QB Foles). This off season is proving to be very interesting. And we are just about one short month of finding out what the Eagles true intentions will be. Stay tuned!

34 Comments:
  • I think it would be a huge mistake to give up Foles and our second for Revis. I would consider Foles and our first for Revis and their first though.
  • I disagree. Foles has no upside and Revis could be solid for years. That is a cheap price to pay. Revis and star would be a draft day coup.
  • It's not even about Foles or his upside. Rather its about giving up a high second. That's giving up too much for a guy coming off am ACL injury. Again I don't mind the trade down, but to just give up a second for a guy who most likely will want big money and hasn't proved he can come back from that injury yet isn't a good idea to me.
  • I feel the need to elaborate some more here. If the Eagles trade their second, the most assuredly have to draft Geno Smith with their first pick, because they will be out to the EJ Manuel sweepstakes. So they end up with Revis and Smith with their first two picks. If they chose to trade down, they would still be in play for a player like Chance Womak, they could still get EJ Manuel, and they would have Revis with their first three picks. You can't be getting a potential all pro guard, possible franchise QB, and if healthy a shutdown corner and you haven't even made your third pick yet!
  • now that may be a different story. I like EJ alot. I dont think he makes it to second round. And I think Philly is going to be seeking a QB. There are alot of teams that could use a QB. Most have starters but are they quality players? So I dont think the draftnicks are correct in their thinking that QBs wont be in demand. I think EJ may suprise where he goes in draft. He would be a priority over Revis. I think Revis will comeback from his injury but its not worth EJ.
  • Right and with the 2nd we could still use it to move back into the first if necessary to get EJ!
  • Cox, Sopoaga and Star would be a nasty d-line. Nobody would want to deal with those guys.
  • Its so drafty I put on my slicker
  • I think we played the trading down game a bit too much during the Andy Reid era, and it ended up biting him in the butt. We have a top 5 pick this year. We should use it.

    Normally to get one of those you have to suck pretty bad and be pretty talent starved as well. We on the other hand DID suck pretty bad, but we did it with an awful lot of talent on the roster. If we add some top shelf talent, and if Chip Kelly really does know what he's doing, we could be in for a worst to first type run. But we have to get out of our own way, and do things that make sense first.

    No more of this getting cute and trying to outsmart the way things work.
  • But if say warmack is the guy they want n would draft him at 4 but he can be had at 7 or something wouldn't it make more sense to trade back let someone else take geno milliner Floyd fisher or star get ur (kellys) n additional picks like another 3rd hopefully a second. If geno is still there we could land another 1st in a future draft cause teams value QBs so much.
  • Sure, if you have a crystal ball and you can see he'd be passed over with picks 1-6. Barring that, you have to take the shot when you have it, because he wouldn't be there at 36.

    Too much is made of where a guy "should go", when the real questions are: "Can he play?", and "Can he play in your system?". Needing a LB in 2009 we dickered on where Clay Matthews should go and picked Jeremy Maclin instead. Still needing a FS in 2010 to replace Dawk, we dickered on where Earl Thomas (who most of us wanted) should fall and instead drafted Brandon Graham (instead of JPP) and we got Nate Allen in the second.

    In both cases the right move was obvious but instead of grabbing the best guy to fill a need, our FO got stuck on their pick valuation model (Remember that thing?). In the meantime JPP and Matthews were huge parts of why their teams hoisted Lombardis, while Graham, Allen or Maclin have yet to even see a Pro Bowl.

    Just get the talent. Let's quit worrying about where we get a guy and worry more about the guy himself.
  • What's ur point about jpp or Earl Thomas? We could of had either of them but picked someone else. Not based on where they should be drafted but based on what the scouts n coaching staff believe was the best pick. If lane Johnson is believed to be the best pick for us n he can be had at 7 (which is most likely) than getting more picks before we get him is best for the team not drafting him at 4. U find out where teams 5 n 6 value him n the odds of taking him n u make the decision on whether or not the trade is worth it. U may know the on the field football n be a decent coach at it but stay out of the gm room if u ever get an opportunity to go there.
  • Charley Casserly (a Super Bowl winning GM) said just today on Path to the Draft that you can ask SOME guys where they value a guy, but trusting what they tell you is at your own risk. Instead of hoping that your competition is being honest with you, it makes sense to keep your eyes on your own work, and get what you need, when you can get it.

    We did it your way (trading down for extra picks, trading out of the 1st, etc.) for years now. Why not learn from past mistakes and just do something right for a change?
  • Of course u never know if u can trust the other teams but u have to look at their needs ur needs n evaluate the pros n cons of trading back. The problem with the eagles hasn't been trading back, in fact for maclin n Graham they traded up, it's been picking the wrong players. That can be blamed on poor scouting poor coaching philosophy n having a wrong outlook on ur own team. If u draft a player at a high slot but he is only as good as let's say dhb u end up wasting a pick n get nothing in return. The raiders could have traded back got additional picks n still picked with but got more value out of their original pick. As for the wild card like the raiders that's why u don't lock in on one player. The eagles r looking at about 7, lurie said this, so they can trade back to 7 n still get a guy they want based only on numbers. If a team picks another player that the eagles aren't looking at that leaves u with two options. If they feel the guy available at 4 isn't gonna be there at a later position u don't make the trade. But that's if they r convinced that there is only one guy for them. I've never seen the pats scared to trade down.
  • Never seen the Eagles scared to do it either. If you're happy with the results, who am I to argue?
  • Trading down doesn't change the results as u said they traded up n made the wrong picks right?
  • Dude! I'm backing off! If you're happy with what they've been doing, who am I to tell you that you shouldn't be?
  • I dont like Raider fans but have to agree with Flip that we must use this pick on solid blue chip talent.
  • That's the thing about this draft. None of the players are that much greater than the next especially in the top 10. Look at 10 different mock drafts and nearly everyone will have 10 different players selected. Moving down in this draft won't hurt as much as if it were another, and if you can pick up more picks of players on a team that lacks depth it's a good idea.
  • The Eagles should not be afraid to make a move if they feel it well help the team. I think it's foolish for any person to equate anything about the current regime with the previous one. For a team that has so many holes in a draft with several players basically considered similar value, if they could trade down then they should.
  • The Eagles arent committed to Vick and the players they added are short term answers. The point is the way this team is shaping up Im convinced they are adding a QB and Vick is gonna have to produce big to make anything happen this year. You might say its all on Vick. We coulod see a new drafted QB by game 6- 8. i dont like playing for the future its an excuse to always play for the future. Thats the Eagle way - next year , next year, future, next year, future. I dont buy any of it anymore.
  • When do the EAGLES ever say next year? The fans say "we'll get them next year"...the players may say it when the season is out of reach. The fans this year that aren't slightly out of their minds know not to expect miracles. You're only expecting and demanding them so you have your reasons to whine.
  • If you think there is any shot of Vick putting this team on his shoulders and winning you are sadly mistaken. I don't think anyone has that kind of feeling about Vick. He's not close to good enough to be able to accomplish such a feat. I think it would be better to just watch the games this season with no expectations. You may find more enjoyment out of this season that way.
  • No one can say mistaken... this is the nfl and a game anyone can come out of anywhere and put a team on their backs and take them to greatness. I will say that anyone who thinks that Vick will put the Eagles on his shoulders and lead them to the superbowl has extremely lofty ideas about this team.
  • I'll say it bro. Mistaken. Look at it objectively for a moment. In offenses where Vick was protected by a great running game, and where he was called on more to pass than to run he had one healthy season. If Vick is the guy who will be called on to run this offense where he will actually be relied on to take hits regardless if he has the ball or not will he be able to stay healthy? Statistics tell us there is no possible way.
  • I agree with you that Vick will more then likely not come out and be this pro bowl calibur guy who doesn't get hurt and leads us to the SB. I'm fully behind what you're saying I agree 100%. I'm just playing devil's advocate by saying never say never. I mean no one every thought Tebow would lead a team to the playoffs let alone win a playoff game. No one thought AP could come back from his injury and be good this season let along be in MVP form. You're right and i agree statistics tell us Vick won't be the guy, and I don't think he will... I haven't even wanted him in the discussion for becoming THE GUY since last season ended. All i'm saying is there is a chance (all be it slim) that he could amaze some people with this new coach.
  • did I hear a news blip that Chip Kelly may be fired??
    oops that was the UCLA mens basketball coach!
  • Chip Kelly will have his job for at least three seasons. There is that vendetta between Lurie and Banner. Lurie doesn't want to look like he made a bad choice. He's going to do everything in his power to beat Banner.
  • QB Kevin Kolb to the Bills, Matt Flynn to the Raiders, Alex Smith to the Chiefs, and Carson Plamer soon to join the Cardinals. These moves tell you exactly what teams think of QB Geno Smith (i.e. not worth a top 10 selection). The only teams that could spring for him seem to be the Browns (even though they just got Jason Campbell) and the Jets (Sanchez..ehh). But on the bright side, none of these quarterbacks (outside of Alex Smith) seem to be long term answers, so maybe there is still value in Geno. Also, Dee Milliner could be used as a pawn to trade back (esp with a team like the Browns or Dolphins) who could leap frog Detroit who's in dire need of a corner. Or perhaps we are ALL surprised and the Jags take Geno Smith with the 2nd overall pick? Highly unlikely, but QB Blaine Gabbert is definitely NOT the QB of the future for the Jags. I think that would be a HUGE mistake by the Jags. But at this point in the game. Who knows...
  • Seems now even less likely the Eagles will be able to trade down. So many of the quarterback moves seem to have more questions than answers. I just hope the Eagles do their research here. Pick the right guy.
  • I don't know. I have the sneaking suspicion that the Eagles are going to draft Geno Smith.
  • ....

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