May 16, 2007

The Problem with 5x5 Leagues

Submitted for your review: consider the 2006 performances of Mike Lowell and Juan Encarnacion... Lowell - .284, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 79 R, 2 SB Encarnacion - .278, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 74 R, 6 SB On the surface they appear very similar -- perhaps a slight edge to Lowell for 6 batting average points, a solo homer and a few runs scored in exchange for giving up 4 steals. No big whoop. Our league also tracks some other stats, like 2B, K, OBP and SLG. Check out the differences: Lowell: 47 2B, 61 K, .814 OPS Encarnacion: 25 2B, 86 K, .760 OPS It's staggering. 22 extra doubles, 25 less strikeouts, and over 50 OPS points. Hands-down, Mike Lowell was the better player last year. The fact is, 5x5 leagues are just fundamentally flawed. The reason we all like fantasy baseball is because we get to assume the role of an owner / GM, and thereby have to make predictions about players' playing time, health, and expected performance that real baseball managers must make. The 5x5 categories were picked because they were the simplest way to mirror that performance, and largely because 20+ years ago, those were the only stats readily available in newspaper box scores. Today, we have the power to make those stats more representative of a player's true value to a team, and hence heighten the experience of being an owner. My sole contention is that we can achieve that objective, as evidenced by the Lowell / Encarnacion example.

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