Continuing the MLB preview with Bodog's NL Cy Young odds:
The only reason I can see for Lincecum being favored here is that he won it last year. He's good, certainly, but PECOTA projects him, Webb, Santana, and Peavy to have comparable ERAs, with Haren lagging a bit at 3.56.
Lincecum's problem is the SFG offense, which once again looks quite poor. He won last year because they scored 4.57 R/G in his starts while coming in at just 3.95 R/G overall. That, plus a 2.62 ERA, is how you go 18-5 for a team that scores 640 runs; counting on both those things coming together again would be foolish.
Lincecum's ridiculously inflated odds might give some value to Santana at 5:1, although with some stiff competition and a seven month wait it's probably not worth it. Some others of interest:
Rich Harden, 15-1
Harden was discussed in the MVP post. I don't think, for whatever reason, people understand how absurdly good he is when actually healthy; PECOTA projects him at 200 Ks in 155 innings, which works out to 11.6 K/9. Even with him making just 25 starts, his PECOTA line comes in third in Cy Young Predictor, behind only Santana and Webb.
Matt Cain, 45-1
Probably not worthwhile, just because that offense is so bad, but the separation between Lincecum and Cain is ridiculous. And it's explained so easily: last year the Giants scored a pathetic 3.12 R/G in Cain's starts. Lincecum is the better pitcher, but he's not 15 times more likely to win the Cy Young.Chad Billingsley, 20-1
I guess Billingsley is still flying somewhat under the radar after going just 4-7 with a 3.71 ERA in his first 15 starts last season, but that probably ends this year. There's just not all that much separating him from the guys with shorter odds: excellent pitcher, above average offense, and on a team that's favored to win its division. The Dodgers only scored 4.3 R/G in his starts last year, but PECOTA projects LA to score a tick over five runs per game this year.
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