More MLB preview. Here are Bodog's AL MVP favorites:
5:1 seems pretty optimistic for a guy that hit "only" .308 with 33 homers last year, in his best triple crown year since '05, doesn't it? Obviously there are some outside factors coming into play, but I don't think there's any value in Teixeira.
Sames goes for Pedroia. Everything came together for him last year, as he had a breakout year on a playoff team in a season where there wasn't one obvious AL candidate. It's possible that that happens again, but not 8:1 possible.
If the Indians make the playoffs Sizemore should be in the discussion, but even as the favorites in the Central they're probably more likely to miss out on October. I think his odds are the most attractive of the top five though.
If everybody didn't hate A-Rod he would be a reasonable option at 15-1 even with the injury, but unfortunately they do. And taking a pitcher at short odds like CC's is a horrible idea.
Others of note (Wieters is not listed[!?]):
Miguel Cabrera, 30:1
There's not much to like with most of these AL MVP prices but I think this is a good spot. Cabrera had a "down" year last season, yet ended up with a .292/37/127 triple crown line (his OBP was way down because of a decrease in walks). PECOTA projects him for .296/33/107 this year, which is rather easily the most impressive projection, MVP-wise, in the league. The Tigers are not worldbeaters, but they have about a 1 in 4 chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
Kevin Youkilis, 40:1
Reaching here, since neither PECOTA or CHONE are very high on him (and that's putting it nicely), but it just seemed odd to me that the guy who finished third last year would be such a longshot. But if last season was his peak and even that wasn't enough to get him in the top two in a weak field, his prospects in 2009 don't look too bright.
B.J. Upton, 50:1
Missing the first week of the season doesn't help, and neither does the huge October that probably brought his odds down a bit. But if he sustains any semblance of that power, and the Rays end up in October...the upside of both he and his brother is just very tempting.
Original Story:
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/04/2009-ml...
