This isn't going to be much of a "preview", but I'd like to get a bunch of baseball stuff up between now and Sunday. Bodog has posted MVP and Cy Young odds, just about every site has division/pennant/WS futures, and RLYW's "2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout" will be very useful if the site starts working again.
Here are the Bodog favorites for NL MVP:
Pujols is great and all, but no. If the Cubs and Cardinals switched places in the projected standings, then he's worth considering. But 3:1 for a guy on a team that's probably about 3:1 to make the playoffs isn't worth it.
Similar situation with Hanley, except the Marlins are even worse than the Cardinals. 5:1 to finish atop this list? Maybe. This one though? Not so much.
Manny is probably the best of these five, but I wouldn't touch any of them. Here are a few that jumped out at me:
Justin Upton, 150:1
Also available at these same odds: Barry Zito, Adam LaRoche, Todd Wellemeyer, and John Garland, among others.
A timely description of Upton from Tim Marchman over at SI: "a freak prodigy, the kind of player capable of winning an MVP award at 21." As previously discussed, PECOTA has him at .278/.361/.507 with 24 homers. Obviously not MVP numbers, but he clearly has the ability to beat that line by a good deal. What are the odds he does that? I have no idea. But 150:1 seems like a pretty good price.
Chipper Jones, 80:1
I understand why the odds for these other guys are so long, even if I don't agree with them; this one just makes no sense. 80:1 for a future HOFer and former MVP who hit .364 last year and finish 12th in the voting despite his team losing 90 games? Some of that stuff doesn't matter, but irrelevant stuff factors into the odds all the time.
The biggest thing going against him last year is gone, as PECOTA has the Braves at 86 wins. Although he's probably going to be light on homers -- which I suppose is a significant issue for a 3B -- BPro's projection system does have him hitting .341. I really think there's a good deal of value here.
Rich Harden, 75:1
Yes, he'll probably be on the DL by May 1, and "probably" becomes "certainly" if I were to actually put money on this. But let's pretend he throws 200 innings (and what are the odds of that?). Harden struck out 181 guys in 148 IP last year, while walking just 61. And half of that was in the AL; with the Cubs he jumped from 10.8 K/9 to 11.3. Always hard to put a number on these, but a potentially dominant pitcher on the best team in the league is quite intriguing at these odds.
Carlos Beltran, 50:1
This one jumped out initially, but that's probably because I appreciate his skills significantly more than the writers. Beltran has finished higher than 8th in the voting just once, and even last year, when he was "worth" $29.4MM, he didn't even crack the top 20. He doesn't fair all that well in the triple crown categories, concentrating a good deal of his value in walks, doubles, and defense. Great player, not a great MVP candidate.
Original Story:
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/04/2009-ml...
