In 2010, the National League Central was, quite frankly, not all that exciting. The Reds were a pleasant surprise, winning the division for the first time since in 1995. Otherwise, only the Cardinals finished above .500, as none of the other four teams were able to win more than 77 games.
This year figures to be a completely different story. The Reds are more than capable of repeating as division champs, but the Brewers and Cubs plan to make that a difficult task. Losing Adam Wainwright for the season is a killer for the Cardinals, but they will still likely be in the mix. The Pirates and Astros are simply hoping to improve.
The division with the most teams might be the one with the most questions. Here are 20:
1- The Cubs had a pretty active offseason. Which of their acquisitions will have the biggest impact?
Matt Garza. Garza essentially takes the rotation spot of Ted Lilly, whom the Cubs dealt to the Dodgers last season. He comes off three solidly consistent, if not spectacular, years in Tampa Bay. His average season from 2008-2010 was an 11-10 record, a 3.85 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP. His postseason experience and bulldog mentality should play well in Chicago, and the fact that most National League hitters are not familiar with him should help Garza in the early going. He’s got some big shoes to fill in Chicago’s starting staff, but his track record makes it likely he’ll succeed.
2- What are the Reds’ chances of repeating as division champs?
55-percent. Adam Wainwright’s injury certainly improves the Reds’ prospects for a division title, just as it bumps everyone else up a bit. This year, however, I don’t see them pulling away as easily as they did in 2010. The Cardinals will still be heard from, as will the Brewers. Even the Cubs will throw their hats into the ring. The Reds have a dynamic offense, a bullpen bolstered by a full season of Aroldis Chapman, and a pitching staff that is young but should still be competitive with the rest of the starting staffs in the division. They also have a manager who’s defended a division title before. That should make playing with a target on their backs a bit easier.
3- Will the Astros be able to compete with the lineup they have?
If the Astros are to be competitive in 2011, it will be likely be because of a good year out of their starting pitchers and the ability to utilize some of the speed they have in the lineup. The only sure bet offensively is Hunter Pence. Carlos Lee must have a bounce-back year after seeing nearly all of his numbers drop from 2009 to 2010. With two years and $37 million left on his contract, Houston will have a tough time trading Lee if he continues to slip. The Astros liked what they saw out of third baseman Chris Johnson in his rookie year (11 home runs, .308 batting average, and 52 RBI in 94 games) and hope for a solid progression. Two wild cards are in the middle infield; Clint Barmes and Bill Hall were added to provide some pop, but neither is a lock to even approach what they did in their best years. If a lot of things fall into place, the Astros might have enough offense to contend in the Central. The problem is the high number of “ifs.”
4- How will Zack Greinke fare in a new environment in Milwaukee?
This question would have had quite a different answer when I first wrote it a couple days back. Instead of preparing for an Opening Day start with his new club, Greinke now has to wait for his fractured rib to heal. The Brewers announced the injury on Tuesday, and Greinke admitted he sustained it playing basketball about two weeks ago. The Brewers traded for Greinke for his ability to get batters out, not for his ability to grab rebounds. This has to rub them the wrong way. Greinke will more than likely start the season on the disabled list and miss anywhere from two to four starts. With this unexpected news, Greinke will hope that his new team gets off to a hot start without him and that his fellow starting pitchers pick up the slack. Greinke has battled anxiety order in recent years and one hopes he won’t feel any added pressure after this mishap. In the long run he should be fine, but this obviously throws a wrench into the situation.
5- What could there possibly be to look forward to with the Pirates?
The song will remain the same in Pittsburgh. The Pirates, again with the division’s lowest payroll, will finish in last place and suffer through their 19th straight losing season. Unlike many of those other 18 years, the Pirates will display plenty of promising youth rather than bringing in past-their-prime retreads. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker all had good showings in their rookie seasons and look to improve in their second years. Andrew McCutchen already has two fine seasons under his belt and should soon find himself in an All-Star game. The pitching staff isn’t exciting, but James McDonald made the most of his 11 starts with the Bucs after being acquired from the Dodgers last year. The few Pirates fans that have stuck it out for the duration of these miserable years already know about this young talent. The question is whether these players are exciting enough to draw in any new fans.
6- How big an effect will losing Adam Wainwright have on the Cardinals?
Saying that Adam Wainwright is a huge loss for the Cardinals is stating the obvious. The impact is deeper than the giant hole that Wainwright leaves in the starting rotation. His absence means every Cardinal pitcher must step up his game this season. While Chris Carpenter is still an ace, even as he’s about to turn 36, he’s dealing with a hamstring injury at the moment. Jake Westbrook hasn’t pitched like a number two or even a number three starter in about a half decade. Will Jaime Garcia be as good as he was as a rookie? Can Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan/P.J. Walters pick up the slack at the back of the rotation? Collectively, this group will have trouble making up for a lot of what they lost in Wainwright. The pressure will extend to the lineup, which needs to produce even more now that a Cy Young-caliber pitcher is out of the picture.
7- Who is the best candidate for Rookie of the Year from this division?
Aroldis Chapman. Late last season the baseball world got a small taste of what Chapman is capable of at the Major League level. In his 15 appearances he struck out 19 batters in 13.1 innings. The most astounding number, however? 105. As in miles per hour on his fastball. The lefthander threw that pitch in a September 24 game against the Padres, making it the fastest recorded pitch in baseball history. He’ll get plenty of oohs and aahs all season long in ballparks across America. With any fire baller, injuries are a concern. On the bright side, Chapman doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his left arm yet and should blow hitters away all year en route to a possible Jackie Robinson Award.
8- What does Alfonso Soriano have left at this point?
Four years and $72 million. Soriano is not exactly a fan favorite at Wrigley Field, and why would he be? He’s now played through half of his eight-year contract and has failed to match the production he had in the five previous years before he signed the deal prior to the 2007 season. He still strikes out a ton (123 in 496 at-bats last year), he’s not stealing bases (a full-season career low of five last year), he’s hit under .260 in each of the last two seasons, and he’s mostly been a disaster in left field. Soriano is now 35 years old and he’s in serious danger of losing some playing time, with Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukodome, and Tyler Colvin all needing to get their at-bats. It’s extremely hard to imagine Soriano all of a sudden finding the Fountain of Youth in 2011.
9- How will Joey Votto follow up his MVP season?
As great as Votto is, he can still be better. He’s even said as much, recently telling the Cincinnati Enquirer, “I’d still like to be more efficient. I’d still like to be a better teammate. I’d like to be a better defensive player. As far as a hitter, I’d like to be more efficient. I feel like I wasted a lot of at-bats last year.” Despite all the accolades he received last year, capped off by the MVP honor, he’s not resting on his laurels. He’s just 27, with only three years of Major League experience under his belt; he can get better. He stole 16 bases last year; maybe he continues to hone that part of his game. He walked 91 times in 547 at-bats; perhaps he cracks the century mark in that category. Hitting 37 home runs again is certainly possible, though he’s bound to get more respect around the league and likely won’t see as many good pitches as he has in the past. Votto is just now entering his prime years and his career should continue on an upward arc. He could very well be in the MVP race once again in 2011.
10- How good can the Astros starting pitching be?
The Astros starting staff is one to keep an eye on. It has the potential to be very good. It has the potential to be up and down all year. Wandy Rodriguez has been consistent enough that the Astros know what he’ll give them at this point. Only six pitchers in the National League had more quality starts than Brett Myers last year; will he be just as effective or will he revert back to the struggles of his last couple of years in Philadelphia? J.A. Happ has never made more than 23 starts in a season; what will he do with a regular rotation spot? Bud Norris had mixed results (more strikeouts than innings pitched but averaged nearly 4.5 walks per nine innings) in 2010; will he cut down on the wildness or continue to have control issues? All of these guys have done some great things over the last two seasons. There is reason to believe the Astros have the makings of one of the better staffs in the NL. At the same time, there is reason to feel a bit iffy about this group.
11- After two straight losing seasons, will the Brewers again contend for a playoff spot?
The Brewers will get back to their winning ways in 2011. Not only should their starting pitching be much better — hopefully Zack Greinke doesn’t miss more than a few starts — but Prince Fielder should bounce back from a down year in 2010 and bolster the entire lineup, which has a lot of pop even without Fielder. Adding Greinke and Shaun Marcum to Yovani Gallardo gives Milwaukee a strong rotation. Adding Takashi Saito to the bullpen should help a group of relievers that finished 12th in the NL in ERA and 14th in batting average against in 2010. Though I ultimately think the Brewers will come up short in their bid for an NL Central title, they’ll be in the race until the end, in addition to being in the hunt for the wild card.
12- Which Pirate is most likely to be dealt before the trade deadline?
Joel Hanrahan. Closers from non-contending teams are almost locks to be traded at the deadline every season. The Pirates did it last year when they sent Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers. Hanrahan signed just a one-year deal for 2011, so he may not necessarily be part of the long-term plan in Pittsburgh. Plus, setup man Evan Meek is almost two years younger than Hanrahan (29) and has the ability to close. Don’t be surprised if higher priced players such as Chris Snyder and Lyle Overbay are shipped out of the Steel City by July 31.
13- It is common for players to have their most productive seasons in the last year of their contracts. With 2011 being a contract year for Albert Pujols, is it even possible for him to outdo what he’s already done in his career?
Who wants to doubt Albert Pujols? Not me. Not to say that Pujols wasn’t motivated before, but he’s got to be a little miffed that his contract extension wasn’t nailed down before this spring, and this can only push him harder in 2011. Would anybody be shocked if Pujols hit 50 home runs for the first time in his career? How about batting .350? 140 RBI? With any other player, predicting these kinds of numbers would be insane. With Pujols, in a contract year, they might just come to fruition.
14- Will the Cubs dugout scuffle on March 2nd affect them going forward?
It might, and that could be a good thing. The Cubs have underachieved the past two seasons, so seeing a little fire in an otherwise meaningless spring training game could set the tone for the season. There’s no guarantee of positive results of course; Carlos Zambrano’s tirade didn’t turn the Cubs’ 2010 season around. It worked for the Tampa Bay Rays last year, though; they went 52-34 after a dugout dust-up between Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. The 2008 Rays had a spring training brawl, not amongst themselves but with the Yankees, and they ended up in the World Series. Again, there is no proof that inter- or intra-team skirmishes lead to winning, but one thing is for sure: The Cubs have not lived up to expectations for the last (one hundred and) two years. Showing a little fire in the dugout in March can’t hurt.
15- Is this the year Homer Bailey comes into his own?
If you’ve been reading my “20 Questions” series, you’ve noticed I tend to focus on prospects who have not yet met expectations. The NL Central is certainly not bereft of such players. Let’s start with Bailey. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft. At age 24, he’s ready to be a starter in Cincinnati for a full season. He’s shown the ability to consistently strike Major League hitters out; he averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in 2010. His control is not great, but he cut down slightly on his walks last year (40 BB in 109 IP in 2010 compared to 52 BB in 113.1 IP in 2009). If not for a stint on the DL last year, Bailey’s overall performance (19 starts, 4-3 record, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) might have been better. Bailey has had more than enough minor league seasoning at this point and this would appear to be the year that he pitches like a first-round pick over the course of an entire season.
16- Will Brett Wallace finally look like he belongs in the Major Leagues?
When you’re a first-round draft pick and the number of times you’ve been traded is higher than the number of Major League home runs you’ve hit, things aren’t going very well. That is the case for Brett Wallace, who joined his third organization in just over a year when the Astros acquired him last July. Upon making his Major League debut last July 31st, Wallace was completely overmatched. He struck out 50 times in 144 at-bats, while walking just eight times and hitting only two home runs. The numbers themselves are disheartening enough. The fact that such a high-level prospect was deemed expendable by two organizations before the player put on a big-league uniform is worrisome. Was it his work habits? His mechanics? The Astros obviously see something in Wallace and they’d like him to break camp as their starting first baseman. There is still a lot of work to be done, however. Wallace may be just 24 years old, but he could already be close to a make-or-break point in his career.
17- Prince Fielder had a down year, by his standards, in 2010. Will 2011 be a return to form?
Fielder and the Brewers avoided arbitration when he signed a one-year, $15.5 million deal back in January. It is more than likely that Fielder is playing his final year in Milwaukee and will test the market in the offseason. A star player in a contract year often makes for a career year for that player. Fielder should be no different. He hit 32 home runs last year, down from 46 in 2009. Part of the problem was that he got off to a sluggish start and hit just two in April, making it nearly impossible to reach his standard numbers. The Brewers continue to have an above-average lineup surrounding him, which will help Fielder reach solid RBI and runs totals; every little bit helps for that upcoming lucrative contract before the 2012 season.
18- Which newcomer (one full season or less) will have the best season for the Pirates?
Pedro Alvarez. With all due respect to Neil Walker and Jose Tabata, whom the Pirates undoubtedly expect big things from, Alvarez is the jewel of the franchise right now. The number two pick in the 2008 draft, the 24-year-old third baseman started his career strong in 2010 by hitting 16 home runs, 21 doubles, and driving in 64 runs in 95 games. After a painfully slow start following his June call-up, he hit 7 homers in July alone. His 126 strikeouts in 347 at-bats are a concern, but not a major one for a guy with this kind of power who’s only had two professional seasons.
19- How important is Lance Berkman to the Cardinals lineup?
The Cardinals don’t necessarily need Berkman to be the Berkman of 2006, but they would settle for the 2009 version. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are givens, and the Cards are relying on Colby Rasmus to progress (and cut down on strikeouts). Berkman needs to be that fourth threat in the middle of the order. He’s essentially replacing Ryan Ludwick, who was sent to San Diego before last year’s trade deadline. Berkman struggled through some injuries last year and his stint as primarily a DH with the Yankees late in the season did not go well. He should feel more comfortable back in the familiar NL Central. Getting reacquainted with the outfield could be Berkman’s biggest issue; his sore left elbow won’t help in that regard. As far as his offense goes, he’ll need to stay healthy and improve on what he did in 2010.
20- How will this division play out?
Just like its American League counterpart, the NL Central will have at least three teams jockeying for position atop the standings. For much of the year, I expect it to be four: Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. I like the Reds to narrowly repeat as division champs. Last year was no fluke. This is still a dynamic lineup; with plenty of power and speed, and some young players that may be even better this year. Aroldis Chapman gives the Reds a top-flight late relief situation, while the starting staff should be able to hold it together. The Brewers will finish in second place, as their starting rotation got a terrific offseason face lift and Prince Fielder will have an MVP-type season in a contract year. The Cardinals will finish third; losing Wainwright obviously bumps them down a bit. The Cubs improve from last year’s disappointing campaign, but there are still concerns with the lineup and the bullpen other than Carlos Marmol. If things fall right for the Astros they could find themselves as high as third place, but the lineup just isn’t on par with the top four teams; I have them fifth. Sadly the Pirates will again finish last. They have a lot of young and exciting players that I look forward to watching this season. However, with youth comes inexperience, and there just isn’t enough proven quality talent to make me believe Pittsburgh avoids the basement again.
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