As Spring Training rapidly approaches, 28 days from now, I would like to offer seven keys over the next few days, in ascending order, for the Atlanta Braves to have success in 2011. I have given much thought to the order of these keys and some of them have changed due to other teams within the National League improving this offseason. Thus, I would like to present to you number seven: Freddie Freeman.
There is no secret that the Atlanta Braves are heading into 2011 with all the intentions to hand over the reigns at first base to Freddie Freeman in 2011. Last season, the Braves management and front office were diplomatic with the expectations of Jason Heyward. They spoke about giving him a hard look, but left open the potential that they possibly would send him to AAA for more seasoning before bringing him up to the big-league team.
The expectations and everything that management and the front office says about Freeman is that the job is his. They signed Troy Glaus as a one-year stop-gap last season. When that experiment collapsed, they traded for Derrek Lee. They let him walk this past offseason and the job is Freeman’s to lose. They have not tempered expectations or tried to hide their intentions. Freeman has did everything that the Braves have asked him to do. Freeman only fueled the expectations as he won the International League Rookie of the Year in 2010 as he put up a .319/.378/.521 with 18 home runs, 87 rbis, and scoring 73 runs. He solidified his label as the future of the Braves at first base moving forward, and that chapter will begin at the end of March.
First Base, for the Braves, has seen many players rotate through over the last 12 years. Since 1998, the Braves have had Andres Galarraga, Ryan Klesko, Galarraga again, Ken Caminiti, Rico Brogna, Wes Helms, Julio Franco, Matt Franco, BJ Surhoff, Robert Fick, Adam LaRoche, Scott Thorman, Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman, Troy Glaus and Derrek Lee log significant appearances at first base. Adam LaRoche is the only player that has been with the Braves for a string of consecutive years during that time. He served as the Braves’ first baseman from 2004 through 2006. The last Braves’ first baseman to serve with the Braves for five years or more is Fred McGriff. He was acquired in 1993 and played with the Braves through 1997.
Needless to say, the Braves have not had a consistent face or presence at first base for a while. Expectations for Freeman are high, but the Braves do not need him to be Fred McGriff, Mark Teixeira or Adam LaRoche. They don’t even need him to be Casey Kotchman or Ryan Klesko.
What the Braves need from Freeman is solid defense, which he should provide, and a better bat than Glaus provided in 2010. Overall, the Braves’ numbers in 2010 at first base were in the bottom half of the National League. They ranked 10th or lower in batting average, slugging percentage, total bases, runs scored, extra base hits, and hits. They ranked 8th or lower in home runs and on base percentage. The only category that they were in the top five in the NL was in RBIs.
Troy Glaus hit .240 with a .344 OBP and .400 slugging %, with 16 home runs and 71 RBIs in 412 AB in 2010. Here is his month by month breakdown in terms of average, OBP and slugging %:
April (84 PA): .194/.310/.292
May (120 PA): .330/.408/.534
June (118 PA): .237/.364/.505
July (93 PA): .182/.312/.234
August (51 PA): .208/.255/.375
September/October (17 PA): .267/.353/.267
Glaus hit 12 of his 16 home runs in May and June. Outside of those two months, he had a miserable .292 slugging percentage and a .217 batting average.
The reality is that the only thing that the Braves hope Freeman can do is be better than Troy Glaus was 5 out of 6 months. They don’t expect him to hit like Glaus did in May, but they hope that he can hit better than he did in April, June, July, August, September and October. The defensive improvement will be a significant upgrade.
Most projections for Freeman are pretty high: hitting around .280+/.330+/.440+ with more than 15 home runs, 80 rbis and close to 70 runs scored.
Look at Jason Heyward’s 2010 rookie numbers: .277/.393/.456 with 18 home runs, 77 rbis and 83 runs scored. I think it is unrealistic to say that Freeman will have or top Heyward’s numbers. The projections are putting his numbers in the Heyward range. I think he has the potential, but I don’t think he will have as solid of a rookie year as Heyward.
I think a much more realistic projection is for him to hit .262/.335/.430 with 14 home runs, 71 rbis and 66 runs scored.
If Freeman puts up those numbers, the Braves will be satisfied and Freeman will be a huge boost to the Braves’ lineup. He is a very important factor on the Braves’ success in 2011.
Original Story:
http://www.tomahawktalk.com/2011/01/6...
