PLAYERS: Cole Hamels, Alfonso Soriano
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*Updated Tuesday 7/28
7:08 – MLB
New York Yankees (Sabathia) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Kazmir)
In this battle of lefties Sabathia has the advantage. Kazmir has not looked quite right all season. The Yankees are 63% favorites against their division rivals.
7:10 – MLB
Atlanta Braves (Jurrjens) @ Florida Marlins (Nolasco)
The Game Forecast calls for the Braves to win 59% of the time. Both pitchers are probably underrated nationally, Jurrjens because he’s not a big-name and Nolasco because of a poor start to the season. This is the second best pitching match-up in the NL tonight behind the PHI-ARI duel later on.
8:05 – MLB
Houston Astros (Oswalt) @ Chicago Cubs (Dempster)
Momentum in baseball is often a mirage. The Cubs won in dramatic fashion last night with Alfonso Soriano bombing a grand slam in the 13th inning. It’s July, and that game shouldn’t carry over to today. For example, the Twins won last week a night after blowing a 10-run lead to the A’s. The Astros are winning 55% of simulations winning by 0.7 runs on average.
9:40 – MLB
Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Haren)
Yesterday with Vegas odds even I said to take the better team in the Phillies. They ended up winning, but today I will say take the better pitcher. Sure Cole Hamels was a postseason star last season, but he hasn’t been the same in 2009. Meanwhile Dan Haren has been incredible this year (2.14 ERA, 0.84 WHIP!). I’m not a big believer (yet) in his poor second half splits. The difference in pitching is reflected in the simulations with Arizona winning 57% of the time.
10:10 – MLB
Toronto Blue Jays (Rzepczynski) @ Seattle Mariners (Washburn)
Is this the last start for Washburn in a Mariners uniform? It should be as Seattle is out of the race and has no business holding onto veteran assets with no long-term future with the team. At least the Mariners are favored in 57% of simulations with Washburn projected to last well into the 8th inning (7.4 IP, 2.5 ER).
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