Drafting closers has been a touchy subject for me this season. My failure to evaluate this position properly has grown into a disgust for all big league stoppers (angry over the ones I drafted and pissed at the ones who are good that i passed up), forcing me to move 'drafting closers' up my All-Time Hate list to number 13 (Above movies in which down and out cops such as Chuck Norris or James Belushi are paired with smarter than human K-9 partners, but below times Ashton Kutcher punked celebrities I've never heard of). In one league where I'm allowed to start 4 RP's, I left the draft with 4 'closers'... Eric Gagne, Keith Foulke, Francisco Cordero, and Ambriox Burgos (I think I just broke out in hives while writing that). In a matter of days, Gagne was hurt and Foulke had lost his job. By May, after absorbing all of his painfully ineffective outings, Cordero was pushed aside and Burgos was dropped after a handful of nuclear meltdowns. In all, those players accounted for $46 of my $260 budget and roughly half of my allotted pitching money (as I was following relatively closely the 65/35 hitting/pitchings budget splits).
Understanding better now than ever the fragile nature of closing in the big leagues, I've decided to take a look at how closers have responded coming off of very successful campaigns (40 or more saves). This would challenge the theory that I would have been better off spending money on two big stud closers rather than spreading my closer budget over 3-4 RP's.
In 2002, 10 relievers saved 40 or more games. Smoltz (55), Gagne (52), Mike Williams (46), Guardado (45), Mesa (45), Koch (44), Nen (43), Jiminez (41), Percival (40), and Urbina (40).
In 2003, only 6 would save over 40 games. Three (50%) had done it the year before; Gagne (55), Smoltz (45), and Guardado (41). Of the remaining 7 who had done it in '02, only 1, Troy Percival (33)had more than 30 saves. Wagner (44), Foulke (43) and Rivera (40) joined the club.
In 2004, 10 closers saved over 40 games. Only three (30%), Rivera (53), Gagne (45) and Smoltz (44) had done it the year before. The others were; F Cordero (49), Isringhausen(47), Benitez (47), Nathan (44), Mesa (43), Graves (41) and Hoffman (41). Again, only 1 of the players that had 40 or more saves had more than 30 the year after, Keith Foulke (33). Wagner and Guardado would have 21 and 18, respectively.
In 2005, 9 RP's would close out 40 games. Only three (33%), Hoffman (43), Nathan (43) and Rivera (43) would close out 40 contests for a second year in a row and only two of the remaining 7 that did it '04 would exceed 30 saves, Isringhausen (39) and F Cordero (37).
Here's what we learn. Between 2002-2004, a team's closer has saved 40 or more games 26 times. In the three complete seasons since, 9 times a closer has put together back to back 40 save seasons. Only 13 times was a closer able to back up a 40 save campaign with one of 30 or more, and 13 times a pitcher would follow a 40 save season with one of less than 30.
Breakdown of pitchers following 40 save seasons
9 - (40 or more saves the following season) - 35%
13 - (30 or more saves the following season) - 50%
13 - (29 or less saves the following season) - 50%
Looking at these numbers, it wouldn't seem like the most cost effective move to purchase closers coming off of 40 save seasons, understanding that 50% of these closers will see a 25% or more drop off in the saves category the following year and it's a coin toss as to who these pitchers will be.
The closer position is one of the most turbulent in all fantasy baseball. The lesson learned may be to not spend that much money on stoppers at all. Grab cheap options with job stability no matter the peripheral numbers and hope for the best. At the very least, the money saved can be spent on more stable areas of your lineup (hitters in general) where production is usually much more consistent from year to year.
Understanding better now than ever the fragile nature of closing in the big leagues, I've decided to take a look at how closers have responded coming off of very successful campaigns (40 or more saves). This would challenge the theory that I would have been better off spending money on two big stud closers rather than spreading my closer budget over 3-4 RP's.
In 2002, 10 relievers saved 40 or more games. Smoltz (55), Gagne (52), Mike Williams (46), Guardado (45), Mesa (45), Koch (44), Nen (43), Jiminez (41), Percival (40), and Urbina (40).
In 2003, only 6 would save over 40 games. Three (50%) had done it the year before; Gagne (55), Smoltz (45), and Guardado (41). Of the remaining 7 who had done it in '02, only 1, Troy Percival (33)had more than 30 saves. Wagner (44), Foulke (43) and Rivera (40) joined the club.
In 2004, 10 closers saved over 40 games. Only three (30%), Rivera (53), Gagne (45) and Smoltz (44) had done it the year before. The others were; F Cordero (49), Isringhausen(47), Benitez (47), Nathan (44), Mesa (43), Graves (41) and Hoffman (41). Again, only 1 of the players that had 40 or more saves had more than 30 the year after, Keith Foulke (33). Wagner and Guardado would have 21 and 18, respectively.
In 2005, 9 RP's would close out 40 games. Only three (33%), Hoffman (43), Nathan (43) and Rivera (43) would close out 40 contests for a second year in a row and only two of the remaining 7 that did it '04 would exceed 30 saves, Isringhausen (39) and F Cordero (37).
Here's what we learn. Between 2002-2004, a team's closer has saved 40 or more games 26 times. In the three complete seasons since, 9 times a closer has put together back to back 40 save seasons. Only 13 times was a closer able to back up a 40 save campaign with one of 30 or more, and 13 times a pitcher would follow a 40 save season with one of less than 30.
Breakdown of pitchers following 40 save seasons
9 - (40 or more saves the following season) - 35%
13 - (30 or more saves the following season) - 50%
13 - (29 or less saves the following season) - 50%
Looking at these numbers, it wouldn't seem like the most cost effective move to purchase closers coming off of 40 save seasons, understanding that 50% of these closers will see a 25% or more drop off in the saves category the following year and it's a coin toss as to who these pitchers will be.
The closer position is one of the most turbulent in all fantasy baseball. The lesson learned may be to not spend that much money on stoppers at all. Grab cheap options with job stability no matter the peripheral numbers and hope for the best. At the very least, the money saved can be spent on more stable areas of your lineup (hitters in general) where production is usually much more consistent from year to year.
