It's Crunch Time For The Sox

At the start of each season, Theo Epstein pencils in 95 wins for the Red Sox. He says he expects that to be the minimum number of games the Sox will have to win to clinch the division, or at least earn a Wild Card berth.Considering how competitive the A.L. is this year, it seems a pretty fair assessment. The Angels have essentially won their division already. And while everyone has been waiting for the the Rays to falter, they haven't yet. After already winning 77 games this season, it may be unrealistic to expect them to. With just five weeks to go in the regular season, the Red Sox have their hands full. Tampa continues to win -- even without Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Troy Percival. Trailing by 4 1/2 games at this juncture, the Sox may be playing for second place.It's certainly not over yet. Including tonight's action, the Rays have 16 home games and 20 road games remaining. For the Sox, it's 15 road games and 20 home games. Each club's remaining games are against opposition with a combined winning percentage of 53%. That's a challenge to both, but an even challenge. The Sox advantage is playing the bulk of their remaining games at home, where they are 43-18 this year. The majority of the Rays' games are on the road, where they are 30-31.The Rays have had the toughest schedule in baseball this season, and over the coming weeks it won't get any easier. Starting September 2, the Rays will play 19 consecutive games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays (best ERA in A.L.) and Twins, and have only one day off during that stretch. That would ostensibly be the time when we'll find out what they're really made of. But at this point it seems we already know.And with the Red Sox, White Sox, and Twins all sitting on 73 wins apiece, the race for the Wild Card spot will be a very tight one that will likely go right down to the wire. With that in mind, the Red Sox had better live up to their General Manager's expectations and win 95 games if they aspire to the postseason once again.That means that over the remaining 35 games in the 2008 season the Red Sox had better win 22, or they could suffer the ignominy of being a defending World Series Champion that fails to qualify for the postseason the following year. That would be a shame. The Sox seem better than that. Ultimately, the Red Sox -- a team with a .575 winning percentage, at present -- probably need to win 63% of their remaining games to continue playing in October. It's a tall order, indeed. But it's not impossible.