AccuScore simulates every game of the season thousands of times to generate the exact winning percentage for each team in each game. It also simulates the entire season 10,000 times to calculate the precise odds of each team making the playoffs. Each week AccuScore focuses on a key MLB series that could have a major impact on playoff races around the league. Visit AccuScore.com for more details on MLB simulations.
Nearing mid-season AccuScore's pre-season pick that the Philadelphia Phillies would repeat as NL East champs is looking fairly accurate. What has not been accurate is the Phillies' bizarre home and road record. The team is horrible at home (13-22) and terrific on the road (26-14). The New York Mets were forecasted to disappoint with an 83-84 win season, but injuries have resulted in the Mets struggling to stay above .500. This weekend's three game series has major ramifications for the playoffs in the National League.
GAME WINNING PERCENTAGES
Philadelphia announced Rodrigo Lopez will start Game 1 vs. Livan Hernandez. Lopez has not pitched in the majors since 2007 and it is unclear how he will perform in his return to the Big Leagues. AccuScore simulations heavily weight a player's most recent performance data and a player's age to determine how the virtual version of the player will perform in simulations. Lopez' last two seasons in the majors ('06-07) were not good. He went a combined 14-22 with an ERA over 5 and opponents hit over .290 against him. Lopez was already on the decline from his 14-9, 3.59 ERA season in 2004 and at 33 he is not expected to be particularly effective. Livan Hernandez has been pitched well his past 3 starts allowing 7 earned runs in 21 innings. Hernandez is giving the Mets a slight edge in Game 1.
GAME WIN %
NYM
PHI
GAME 1: Hernandez vs. Lopez
54%
46%
GAME 2: Nieve vs. Moyer
45%
55%
GAME 3: Santana vs. Blanton
50%
50%
AVERAGE
50%
50%
Fernando Nieve's first 3 starts were very impressive. He allowed 3 runs in 18 innings and this included holding the potent Yankees and Rays offenses to just 3 earned runs in 2 starts. However, his last start in Milwaukee was a bad one where he gave up 11 hits in just 3.1 innings. Jamie Moyer is 20 years older than Nieve and he has not been good this season, but Moyer is pitching well enough in simulations to give the Phillies a 55 percent edge.
Johan Santana's overall season numbers are solid (9-6, 3.34 ERA), but he has been far from dominant. In his last 4 starts, he has two quality starts bookmarked by two horrific starts. His ERA has increased from 1.77 on May 27 to 3.34 now. Joe Blanton's ERA is not good (5.08), but unlike Santana he is at least trending well lowering his ERA from 7.11 on 5/21 to 5.08 today. The Game 3 simulation is a coin flip with Blanton putting up a strong effort against the favored Santana.
CHANCE OF A SWEEP
The Phillies have home field 'advantage', but in a microcosm of the entire season they are not getting any advantage at home. Over 10,000 series simulations the Mets and Phillies are splitting the 3 games 50/50. Actually, if you were to round the winning percentages to one decimal point you would see Philadelphia does have a slight 50.3 percent edge and as a result Philadelphia has a 13 percent chance of sweeping the Mets (Mets have a 12 percent chance of the road sweep).
PLAYOFF CHANCES
SERIES OUTCOME
%CHANCE
NYM
PHI
Mets Sweep Phillies
12%
21%
23%
Phillies Win 1 Game
37%
16%
30%
Phillies Win 2 Games
38%
12%
37%
Phillies Sweep Mets
13%
8%
44%
The NL East is extremely tight with Philadelphia holding a 3.0 Game lead on 4th place Atlanta. At this point in the season it looks like just the division winner from the NL East will make the playoffs as the Wildcard is more likely to go to a team like St Louis / Milwaukee (team that does not win the division) or Colorado / San Francisco. Currently, the Phillies have a slight edge with a 33 percent chance of winning the NL East and a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs. In 10,000 simulations the Mets average just 2.5 fewer wins than the Phillies and have a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs (13 percent chance of winning the NL East).
With just 2.5 games separating the teams in simulations a sweep in either team's favor can drastically shift playoff chances. If the Phillies' home misery continues and they are swept by the Mets, the Mets and Phillies have virtually the same chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Depending on how Florida fares against San Francisco and Atlanta against Washington, there could be 4 teams with a 21-24 percent chance of winning the NL East.
If Philadelphia can right the ship at home and sweep the Mets it would not only give Philadelphia a strong 44 percent chance of making the playoffs, but it would slash the Mets' chances to just 8 percent. It would also mean that Johan Santana would lose again and it would be the Mets' 5th loss in Santana's last 7 starts. It would be very demoralizing to lose so many games with your Ace pitching.
Original Story:
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July 02, 2009
