LIST: Who Will Win the NL East?

With a little under two months to go in the season, the Marlins, Mets, and Phillies are bunched within 2 games of each other in the NL East standings, with plenty of games left against each other. Who will win it? All three have glaring weaknesses, so you can make a case for any of them. Here's my best guess...

  • 1
    Philadelphia Phillies

    The Phillies certainly can hit; they are the only team to outhomer the Marlins thus far. They only trail the Cubs in runs scored per game, and are fourth in the NL in team ERA, despite playing in a hitters' park. The bullpen has held up nicely this year, but can Brad Lidge stay effective as the pennant race heats up? It will certainly be interesting to see whether Brett Myers can put his game together for the stretch run. The Phils certainly would like him to regain his stuff and join Cole Hamels in a formidable one-two punch. If not, then their rotation looks very pedestrian, and pitching wins championships, as the saying goes... However, if their pitching holds up, then the Phils can easily take away the division crown with their lineup. They have 8 games left against the Marlins (including tonight), but only 5 left against the Mets. The Phils also have 9 games left against the woeful Nationals, which gives them an added opportunity to pile up some wins (The Marlins face the Nats 6 times, the Mets, 9 times). Odds of winning the division: 50%

  • 2
    Florida Marlins

    I'll begin with the obvious: the Marlins can rake. They only trail the Cubs in OPS+ The infield has a decent chance of becoming the first ever to have all four infielders hit 25 home runs in a season. Also obvious, their fielding is atrocious. But the most telling weakness of this team is the pitching staff's propensity for walks. Florida walks 3.9 batters per game, only San Francisco and Pittsburgh are worse - not good company... Getting Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson back should bolster the rotation, but the bullpen will make or break this team. If they can cut down on their walks, then the Marlins' lineup and improved rotation (with Johnson and Sanchez) could put them over the top. The Fish play the Phillies 8 more times this year (including tonight) and the Mets 9 more times, so they'll have plenty of opportunities to help themselves. They finish the season with a 3-game set against the Mets in Shea, so the final weekend of the season could be quite exciting. Odds of winning the division: 35%

  • 3
    New York Mets

    The Mets score a lot of runs, and their lineup is quite formidable with Beltran, Wright, and Reyes holding things down, but can they win the division with such average pitching? (There ERA+ now stands at an even 100). It would be great for them if Pedro Martinez returns to vintage form, but I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. Apart from Johan Santana, the rotation is not daunting. Oliver Perez and John Maine have yet to consistently play up to their potential, and Pedro remains a big question mark, as mentioned earlier. The Mets may yet mash their way into the playoffs like they did in 2006, but it remains to be seen if they can overcome the Fish and the Phils. The Mets only get 5 more chances against the Phillies, but they do have 9 games against the Marlins, and 9 against the Nats. Odds of winning the division: 15%

  • 4
    Braves/Nationals

    Come on, let's be serious here... not a chance.

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4 Comments On: "LIST: Who Will Win the NL East?"

 
Im going with the Phils! It is going to be close with the Marlins, Im sure the Mets will collapse.

Yeah, I think the race really hinges on the Marlins' rotation. They're good, but young, so you never know how they will perform down the stretch. Though with their lineup, the Phils could make that a moot point...

have to go with the Phillies...too much overall talent, and a lethal lineup...have the best chemistry in division too, up to this point of season...and yeah dave68, it is mystifying how the Marlins keep churning out stud pitchers since inception

the phillies will win the division they are the most talented, mets have bullpen issues, lots of injuries to their team, the marlins play horrible defense they dont run the bases that well, and they dont have many stars that wont get the job done down the stretch

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