In theory, I'm going to try to write one of these for each of the eight playoff teams; we'll see how that goes. In order to space them out a bit, and avoid writing 8,000 words in 48 hours, I'm going to start now with the Angels, who could clinch the AL West as soon as late Tuesday evening. The Red Sox will probably be next, as the current odds put their chances of missing the postseason at about 1 in 200.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Current record: 87-56 (1st in AL West)
RS: 669 (9th in AL); RA: 603 (4th fewest in AL)
Pythag record: 78-65; Third-order record: 75-68
Division odds: 100%; Playoff odds: 100%
Reason #3,482 the Angels aren't the "Best Team In Baseball": this is their infield.
Actually, this is even generous; Thursday's infield consisted of Mathis, Teix, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Wood, and Robb Quinlan. Kendrick is currently on the DL (shocker) with a hamstring injury, and Aybar hasn't played since August 27, bothered by a similar injury. Both should be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.
Teixeira has, once again, been great after a mid-season trade, hitting .360/.441/.610 as an Angel. The +20 is a bit fluky; he was +2 and -4 the last two years out there, respectively. Regardless, he is pretty easily the best hitter on this team.
It feels weird to even say this, but Vlad just isn't that good anymore. The average AL RF has hit .279/.348/.456 this year; Guerrero is above those marks, but only marginally so. The problem comes in the other facets of the game; you need only to see him run to know that his defense and baserunning are solidly below average at this point. Overall, he's about average; not yet a liability, but certainly a far cry from '00-'04, when he hit .331/.403/.602 over 3168 PAs.
No, I didn't forget to put in a number for Hunter's D. Being average in center is nothing new for him; he was -2 in '06, and exactly average last year. He's probably worth about the $16MM he's making this year; problem is, his salary continues to rise, while his performance will likely drop. For that contract to have any realistic chance of turning out well, he would've needed to be worth way more than $16MM this year, as the chances of his performance being worth anything even close to $18MM at age 36 are extremely slim. The Angels do a lot of things right, but committing a total of $30MM to Hunter and Matthews Jr. in 2011 was exceedingly dumb.
The Angels' rotation leads the league in innings pitched, at 905 (6.3 IP/S). They're only sixth in K rate (6.3 K/9), but all five starters have a BB/9 under 3.0, which is pretty impressive.
Santana has been absolutely fantastic. Maybe it was random variance all along, but his dramatic improvement has been all about his road performance; last year he had a 3.27 ERA at home, and that's actually up to 3.33 this year. But when you lower your road ERA by over five runs (8.38 to 3.16), you've taken a large step forward. Looking back, it seems as though his road struggles were likely random; his K:BB numbers weren't that different on the road last year, he just gave up a lot more homers. Easy to say now, of course.
Lackey has been good, but not great. FIP punishes him too much for a HR rate that has nearly doubled from last year, even though his GB% has actually increased. A low BABIP and high strand rate keep his ERA low; his "true talent" ERA is likely around 3.50 at this point.
Clearly, those two will be starting the first two games in the ALDS, but then the Angels are faced with an interesting decision regarding their Game 3 starter. Saunders has the pretty record and ERA, but has the distinct disadvantage of not being very good. Weaver, with his 2.8:1 K:BB ratio, has actually been the third best pitcher on the staff, but he's only 10-10, and is currently battling a strange injury. Garland isn't particularly good, either in perception or reality, but does have the always vital postseason experience (CHW, '05). My guess is that it'll be Saunders in G3, and if they need another guy for G4, that start will go to Garland.
Arredondo's numbers are a little misleading. His ERA is a lot lower than his FIP, which is obviously caused by a high LOB% and low BABIP. But the FIP doesn't tell the whole story either, as his HR/FB is just 4.5%. He's good, but 3.30 ERA good, rather than 1.41 or 2.90.
Of all the dumb things people do when evaluating baseball players, I think the single dumbest may be the reliance on how many saves a pitcher accumulates. I mean even beyond the fact that the save rule is stupid and arbitrary; K-Rod has had 14 more save opportunities than anyone else in the majors, of course he's going to rack up a lot of saves.
I'm preaching to the choir on that one though. Here are Rodriguez's ranks, among the 29 guys with at least 20 save opportunities:
Well, I think that pretty much ends the AL MVP debate. I'm not sure how one would even go about arguing that a guy with a worse K:BB ratio than Huston Street hasn't been the most valuable player in the league.Perception vs. Reality
Mostly because they've outperformed their Pythag by nine games, and their third-order record by 12, the Angels are going to be incredibly overvalued next month. This is particularly true if Saunders takes the mound, as his record and ERA are pretty comical. They'll likely face either Tampa Bay or Boston in the first round; I would imagine Boston would be a slight favorite in that matchup (they certainly should be), while the slumping Rays would be underdogs.
Photo: Sibloblian.
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