WEEK 12

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SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 MLB Season after 12 week of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated twice a day.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
By winning their past 5 games, including two over a hot Rockies team and 3 road games in Arizona, the Angels have improved their playoff chances by over 10 percentage points and now have a solid 61 percent chance of reaching the post-season (2nd best in the AL). It helps that Texas dropped two of 3 at home to San Diego.

The Yankees swept the Mets and won two of three at Atlanta. Despite the Red Sox and Tampa Bay both having good weeks, the Yankees still improved their playoff chances by over 9 percentage points. The 'unfair' thing for the Yankees is despite the fact that they are forecasted for the second most wins in the AL they only have the fifth best chance of making the playoffs because of the competitiveness of the AL East. Tampa Bay was 5-1 and only picked up 4.4 percent. Their wins were "worth less" than the Yankees' wins because they were at home, while the Yankees won on the road. Boston was not as good as the Rays and Yankees, but they still lead the AL in overall forecasted wins.

Detroit swept the Cubs, but then dropped 2 of 3 at Houston. At 4-2, the Tigers improved by over 7 percentage points. The Twins were also good at 4-2, but only improved by 0.3 percent because they are still 4 games back of Detroit. In simulations their odds of making the playoffs as a Wildcard are relatively small because the Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Toronto in the East are not going to make it easy for Minnesota to get a Wildcard. They need to catch Detroit.  A 4-2 week for the Twins did not help much because the Yankees and Rays were 5-1.

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEEK 11 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

22-Jun

29-Jun

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Los Angeles Angels

50.4%

61.1%

10.7%

57.8%

New York Yankees

34.1%

43.2%

9.1%

21.5%

Detroit Tigers

40.7%

48.1%

7.4%

44.6%

Tampa Bay Rays

34.9%

39.3%

4.4%

18.8%

Boston Red Sox

63.5%

67.4%

3.9%

46.2%

Minnesota Twins

46.4%

46.7%

0.3%

43.2%

Toronto Blue Jays

28.0%

27.3%

-0.7%

12.2%

Chicago White Sox

12.1%

10.7%

-1.4%

9.2%

Seattle Mariners

16.2%

14.2%

-2.0%

11.7%

Kansas City Royals

4.5%

1.9%

-2.6%

1.8%

Texas Rangers

36.8%

32.7%

-4.1%

28.9%

Cleveland Indians

6.2%

1.2%

-5.0%

1.2%

Baltimore Orioles

13.4%

4.5%

-8.9%

1.2%

Oakland Athletics

12.5%

1.7%

-10.8%

1.5%

NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Rockies stayed hot going 4-2 in road games against the Angels and Oakland. With the Dodgers going just 2-4 and Giants 3-3, the Rockies were able to pick up ground in the division race (Dodgers still overwhelming favorite). More importantly, the mediocre Mets and sliding Cubs have opened up plenty of room in the Wildcard race for Colorado. The Dodgers were just 2-4, but still improved their playoff chances by 4 percent. How does this happen? Again, it is related to Wildcard races. The Dodgers did not really improve their chances of winning the NL West much (just 1 percent), but their chances of getting a Wildcard spot in the event they lose the division race improved thanks to the weak performance by teams like the Cubs, Mets, and Cardinals this week.

The Phillies were just 3-3, but this was a decent performance given they had 6 tough road games in Tampa and Toronto. Of course their +10 percent improvement had more to do with the Mets going just 3-4 and getting swept at home by the Yankees. Mets have fans do have 2 things that could help them improve this year. First, their remaining opponents have a combined 47 percent winning percentage vs. 50 percent so far this season. Second, they should get some of their numerous injured players back over the next month. One negative for the Mets is they have 4 more road games than home games over the course of the rest of the season.

In the NL Central, the Cubs are doing everything to help the Brewers and Cardinals make it a two team race. They Cubs were just 1-6 and found their playoff chances cut by nearly 12 percentage points (a 60percent drop from 20 to just 8 percent). The Cardinals had a bad week at just 2-5, but the Cubs bad week combined with the modest 3-3 week from the Brewers only resulted in a slight drop-off for the Cardinals in playoff chances. The Brewers actually had the 3rd best improvement in playoff odds despite going just 3-3. Again, this is tied to the bad / mediocre weeks from the Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Astros. All these teams were 3-3 or worse which propped up the Brewers. 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 12 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

22-Jun

29-Jun

% DIFF

WIN DIV

Colorado Rockies

20.8%

32.9%

12.1%

14.0%

Philadelphia Phillies

43.9%

54.1%

10.2%

50.1%

Milwaukee Brewers

45.8%

51.0%

5.2%

39.4%

Los Angeles Dodgers

79.8%

83.8%

4.0%

72.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates

2.9%

4.6%

1.7%

2.6%

Cincinnati Reds

10.9%

11.7%

0.8%

6.5%

Florida Marlins

21.6%

22.0%

0.4%

18.7%

San Diego Padres

1.7%

2.0%

0.3%

0.6%

Washington Nationals

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

St. Louis Cardinals

54.9%

54.8%

-0.1%

42.0%

Houston Astros

9.0%

8.6%

-0.4%

4.8%

Arizona Diamondbacks

4.6%

0.9%

-3.7%

0.3%

San Francisco Giants

32.2%

28.5%

-3.7%

12.6%

Atlanta Braves

18.5%

11.6%

-6.9%

10.0%

New York Mets

33.3%

25.1%

-8.2%

21.2%

Chicago Cubs

20.0%

8.2%

-11.8%

4.7%