Projecting the 2009 Cubs: the final one

For these team projections I've used the playing time projections that we put together. The statistics for the hitters are from the 2009 Shawon's, which are based on the following projections: Marcel, Chone, PECOTA, and ZiPS. The pitching stats (FIP) are the average of those same 4 projection systems. The defense for most of the players was a 3-year weighted UZR average if possible and for others I explained on their individual player projection. The baserunning numbers are the average of BP's baserunning metrics over the last 2 seasons for each player. Per 700 PAs Hitter Pos PA wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR Soto CA 545 .382 2.86 -0.04 1.25 0.50 2.00 6.57 $23.4 5.1 Hill CA 150 .273 -3.77 -0.01 1.25 -0.20 2.00 -0.73 -$0.3 -0.2 Lee 1B 611 .368 2.01 -0.26 -1.25 0.37 2.00 2.87 $11.7 2.5 Hoffpauir 1B 89 .359 1.46 0.00 -1.25 0.00 2.00 2.21 $1.7 0.3 Mike Fontenot 2B 495 .348 0.79 -0.03 0.25 1.47 2.00 4.48 $14.7 3.2 Aaron Miles 2B 205 .305 -1.83 -0.35 0.25 0.10 2.00 0.17 $0.6 0.1 Ryan Theriot SS 562 .329 -0.37 -0.02 0.75 0.20 2.00 2.56 $9.7 2.1 Aaron Miles SS 37 .305 -1.83 -0.35 0.75 -0.90 2.00 -0.33 $0.3 0.0 RL Player SS 101 .295 -2.43 0.75 0.00 2.00 0.32 $0.6 0.0 Ramirez 3B 600 .388 3.23 -0.31 0.25 0.22 2.00 5.39 $21.2 4.6 RL Player 3B 100 .300 -2.13 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 0.12 $0.5 0.0 Soriano LF 616 .384 2.98 -0.06 -0.75 1.14 2.00 5.31 $21.4 4.7 Johnson LF 84 .321 -0.85 -0.12 -0.75 0.94 2.00 1.22 $1.1 0.1 Fukudome CF 469 .351 0.97 0.26 0.25 0.30 2.00 3.78 $11.8 2.5 Gathright CF 153 .281 -3.29 0.28 0.25 1.00 2.00 0.24 $0.6 0.1 Johnson CF 88 .321 -0.85 -0.12 0.25 -0.92 2.00 0.36 $0.6 0.0 Bradley RF 442 .418 5.05 -0.18 -0.75 0.50 2.00 6.62 $19.2 4.2 Johnson RF 162 .321 -0.85 -0.12 -0.75 0.94 2.00 1.22 $1.7 0.3 Hoffpauir RF 96 .359 1.46 0.00 -0.75 -1.00 2.00 1.71 $1.5 0.2 Team 5605 .357 1.33 -0.08 0.00 0.48 3.73 29.8 Pitcher S/R IP FIP LEV FA $ WAR Zambrano S 199 4.24 1.0 $12.0 2.6 Dempster S 190 3.94 1.0 $14.6 3.2 Lilly S 198 4.33 1.0 $11.0 2.4 Harden S 144 3.12 1.0 $18.6 4.0 Marshall S 160 4.55 1.0 $7.1 1.5 Heilman S 30 4.23 1.0 $2.2 0.4 Samardzija S 19 4.91 1.0 $0.9 0.1 Marmol R 76 3.55 1.8 $7.7 1.6 Gregg R 71 4.00 1.5 $3.2 0.6 Heilman R 65 4.23 1.3 $1.6 0.3 Vizcaino R 33 4.37 0.7 $0.5 0.0 Cotts R 48 4.24 1.0 $1.0 0.1 Samardzija R 26 4.91 0.9 -$0.1 -0.1 Guzman R 50 4.01 0.9 $1.6 0.3 Patton R 25 5.70 0.6 -$0.4 -0.2 RL Player R 126 4.55 0.2 $0.3 0.0 Starters 940 4.09 $64.0 14.1 Relievers 520 4.27 1.0 $12.3 2.6 Total 1460 4.16 $75.9 16.8 Group WAA WAR Hit 10.6 BR -0.7 Field 3.9 Hitters 29.8 Pitchers 16.8 Total WAR 46.6 Total FA $ $210.5 Win Talent 95.1 Prob >= X Wins 61 100% 66 100% 71 100% 76 100% 81 98% 86 91% 91 72% 96 41% 101 15% There you have it. 93.7 win true talent level for the 2009 Cubs. The Cubs have the easiest schedule in the NL according to BP so you can add few wins to that if you'd like. The 2009 Cubs should win about 94 games based on talent and perhaps a few others due to strength of schedule. UPDATE: Thanks to commenters who pointed out that I had not added the baserunning numbers and for them to point out how low Miles' wOBA was. I've updated the charts above. 95.3 wins now. Play ball!